Inside stats: Recent large free-agent contracts

The Winter Meetings brought us three big contracts -- for Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg and Anthony Rendon -- each of which moved lines in the record books in some way or another. All three of those big names have signed, but the offseason is far from over.

With that in mind, it’s always a good time to dive into some research and statistical observations about the sport. Here’s this week’s Research Inbox.

@g10lafleur: Would love to see something that looks at top 5 free-agent signings for each of the past five years and compares their WAR pre- and post-their mega contract

The first caveat worth noting here is that even the oldest of these contracts is only five years old at the moment. We won’t be able to do a full assessment of the pre-contract and during-contract production until the sample is complete, but we can certainly take a look at what’s gone on so far. Keep in mind that the "pre-contract" years worth looking at will vary by individual, too -- there’s no one way to do this sort of evaluation, especially since each of these deals is still in progress.

With that in mind, the top five largest free-agent contracts by total value in the prior five seasons were: Bryce Harper’s $330 million, Manny Machado’s $300 million, David Price’s $217 million, Max Scherzer’s $210 million and Zack Greinke’s $206.5 million.

1) Harper: In Harper’s first year in Philadelphia, he posted 4.2 Wins Above Replacement on Baseball Reference (which will be the WAR used throughout this article). In his first seven years of his career, in D.C., he averaged 3.9 WAR per season. Specifically over the three years before the deal -- from 2016, the year after his National League MVP, onward -- he averaged 2.5 WAR per season.

2) Machado: In Machado’s first year in San Diego, he had 3.1 WAR. In the prior four seasons, he averaged 5.8 WAR per season. His 3.1 WAR in 2019 was Machado’s lowest since 2014, when he had 2.3 WAR in 82 games as a 21-year-old -- a pretty different scenario. Overall, Machado’s per-season average WAR before joining the Padres was 4.8 per season.

3) Price: Price has now pitched four seasons on his deal, so we can do a more equal comparison here. In his time in Boston, he’s averaged 2.7 WAR per season. In the previous four seasons, he averaged 5.0 WAR per season. It’s worth noting, though, that Price’s four years in Boston include three seasons in which he has not reached 180 IP, a mark he eclipsed in each of the four seasons prior -- and WAR is, of course, a counting stat.

4) Scherzer: Scherzer has now spent five seasons with the Nationals -- the exact length of his Tigers career, which came immediately before this. In D.C., he’s averaged 7.0 WAR per season. With the Tigers, he averaged 4.2 WAR per season. There’s no question this has been one of the better free-agent contracts ever -- of any position.

5) Greinke: Greinke was traded this season, but his contract is still intact, so we’ll evaluate his time since signing and prior -- knowing that the end of 2019 was with Houston, not the D-backs. In four years on his current deal, Greinke has averaged 4.4 WAR per season. In the four seasons prior, he averaged 5.3 WAR per season. However, it is worth noting that he had 9.1 WAR in his final year with the Dodgers in 2015, when he finished second in NL Cy Young voting to Jake Arrieta, which skews the prior four years number a bit. From 2012-14 with the Brewers, Angels and Dodgers, he averaged 4.1 WAR per season, which is a lot closer to what he’s done in his time since signing his new contract.

@rraGed74: Sarah ... the Dodgers have been eliminated for three straight seasons by the eventual WS champions. What is the longest such [streak]? Thanks!

This trend actually goes back one season further. In addition to losing to the Nationals in the NL Division Series in 2019, the Red Sox in '18 and Astros in '17, the Dodgers were eliminated by the Cubs in '16, who went on to win the World Series. So, they’ve been eliminated by the eventual World Series champion in four straight seasons.

That’s tied for the longest such streak in postseason history. The only other team to do it was the Yankees, from 2001-04. They lost the 2001 World Series to the D-backs, were eliminated in the '02 American League Division Series by the Angels, lost in the '03 World Series to the Marlins and were eliminated in the '04 AL Championship Series by the Red Sox.

Of course, the Yankees did that on the heels of winning three straight World Series -- a slightly different situation than the one the Dodgers are in.

No team has been eliminated in the playoffs by the eventual World Series champion in five straight seasons, a distinction the Dodgers will seek to avoid in 2020.

@paulriker: I'd love to see the correlation between dates and size of contracts. What percentage of $100 million-plus contracts sign in December vs. January vs. February.

Taking a look at free-agent contracts with a total value of at least $100 million, excluding extensions and international signings, the most common month has been December, entering 2019. Sixty-one percent of those deals have been signed in December, the highest frequency of any month. Seventeen percent have been in January, 10% each in November and February, and 2% in March -- that’s just Harper’s contract with the Phillies entering 2019.

If we just look at the contracts of that group that totaled at least $200 million, it’s still most common in December, with six of the 10 coming then. Two were in January, and there was one each in February and March.

Thus far this offseason, we've had four $100 million contracts, and all of them were signed in December. Three of those were $200 million contracts, for Cole, Rendon and Strasburg -- with Zack Wheeler the player receiving a contract in the $100 million threshold below $200 million. At this point, it seems unlikely there will be another $100 million contract this offseason, but we won't be able to update the percentages until we're certain of that.

@JonPKay: For qualified hitters, what is the median number of [homers] a hitter hit in the AL/NL? I think [MLB.com writer Mike Petriello] mentioned that Pillar had "some pop" with 22 homers and I feel like I have lost my pop-radar with the ball in 2019.

Getting asked to calculate the median for something really brought me back to algebra class here, so I figured we’d do the trio: mean, median and mode! For a quick refresher, mean just means average, median is the number in the middle when the numbers are sorted in order, and mode is the quantity that appears the most times.

There were 135 qualified hitters this season. Their home run totals spanned from Pete Alonso’s 53 to Yolmer Sánchez’s two. The mean home run total this season among qualified hitters was 25.6. The median was 25, and it makes sense those would be similar numbers.

The mode was 23 -- there were seven qualified hitters this season who hit exactly 23 home runs, the most common total: Khris Davis, Albert Pujols, José Ramírez, Freddy Galvis, Christian Vázquez, Starling Marte and Jeff McNeil. There was a tie for the next-most common, with six individuals each hitting 35, 33, 32, 31 and 21 home runs. Remember that for each of these trends -- the mean, median and mode -- it’s among the 135 qualified hitters this season. Including every player to get a Major League plate appearance would give us far different results.

@willybeanes: Christian Yelich had a 1.046 OPS over the last two seasons. What's the highest adjusted OPS+ across 2 seasons in the last 50 years?

There’s no question that Yelich has had an outstanding two-season stretch, but would you believe that he doesn’t even have the highest OPS+ in the last two years? Yelich had a 171 OPS+ since 2018 began, which is second-highest in the Majors among batters with at least 1,000 plate appearances in that span. Mike Trout has a 190 mark in that span, which leads the way.

Yelich’s 171 is good, but looking over the past 50 seasons, there are plenty of instances of higher two-season span OPS+. There are five instances of a player having a 200 or higher OPS+ in a two-season span in the last 50 years. Perhaps unsurprisingly, all of them belong to Barry Bonds.

Highest OPS+ in 2-season span, last 50 seasons (min 1,000 PA):
1) 263 (Barry Bonds, 2001-02)
2) 250 (Barry Bonds, 2002-03)
3) 247 (Barry Bonds, 2003-04)
4) 223 (Barry Bonds, 2000-01)
5) 205 (Barry Bonds, 1992-93)

The highest two-season span for any player not named Bonds is a 196 OPS+, by Mark McGwire from 1998-99. That's tied for sixth on this list, along with, you guessed it, another Bonds span: 1993-94.

Overall, there have been 63 instances in the last 50 years of a player having an OPS+ in a two-season span higher than Yelich’s 171. Trout has done it in every two-season span of his career, starting with his first full season in 2012.