Experts predict this season's stat leaders

The Seoul Series has come and gone and we are now just four days away from the full start to the 2024 season. As part of our countdown to Opening Day, it's time to predict which players will stand out the most this year.

We polled 87 MLB.com experts for their picks on who will lead the American League and National League in a number of key statistical categories, including homers, batting average, stolen bases, ERA, strikeouts and saves. Here are the results.

Batting average

AL: Bo Bichette, Blue Jays
If this prediction comes to fruition, Bichette would become just the second batting champion in Blue Jays history, joining John Olerud (led AL with .363 average in 1993). No AL player has collected more hits (555) in the past three years than Bichette, who finished third in the AL with a .306 batting average last season behind Yandy Díaz (.330) and Corey Seager (.327).

Others receiving votes: Corey Seager, Juan Soto, Yordan Alvarez, Yandy Díaz, Bobby Witt Jr., Julio Rodríguez, Masataka Yoshida, Aaron Judge, Evan Carter, José Ramírez, Kyle Tucker, Steven Kwan

NL: Luis Arraez, Marlins
Arraez has cemented himself as baseball’s preeminent contact hitter, evoking memories of Hall of Famer Tony Gwynn. After winning the AL batting title as a member of the Twins in 2022, Arraez led the NL with a .354 average last year, becoming the first player to earn a batting crown in each league in consecutive seasons. If he adds a third in 2024, it would make him the first player since Miguel Cabrera in 2011-13 to win a batting title in three consecutive years. Our voters like his chances of getting it done.

Others receiving votes: Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts, Ronald Acuña Jr., Jeff McNeil, Jung Hoo Lee, Bryan Reynolds, Nico Hoerner, Trea Turner

Home runs

AL: Aaron Judge, Yankees
Judge set an AL record with 62 homers in 2022 and was on pace to record 50-plus dingers again last year before injuring his right big toe when he crashed into the outfield fence at Dodger Stadium on June 3. If he stays healthy in 2024, it’s easy to imagine the superstar slugger leading the AL in home runs for the third time in his career, especially after last year’s AL leader, Shohei Ohtani, made the jump to the NL in free agency.

Others receiving votes: Yordan Alvarez, Juan Soto, Adolis García, Julio Rodríguez, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Corey Seager, Gunnar Henderson, Luis Robert Jr., Rafael Devers, Spencer Torkelson

NL: Pete Alonso, Mets
Alonso went deep 46 times a year ago, notching his second straight 40-homer campaign and ranking third in the NL behind Matt Olson (54) and Kyle Schwarber (47). With more homers (192) than anyone else since he made his MLB debut -- including a rookie-record 53 dingers in 2019 -- it’s no surprise the first baseman drew a lot of support in our poll.

Others receiving votes: Shohei Ohtani, Matt Olson, Kyle Schwarber, Ronald Acuña Jr., Austin Riley, Fernando Tatis Jr., Mookie Betts, Oneil Cruz, Rhys Hoskins

Stolen bases

AL: Esteury Ruiz, Athletics
After swiping 85 bases during the 2022 Minor League season, Ruiz led the AL with 67 stolen bases in his first year with the A’s -- 18 more steals than the next closest player in the league. The only thing that might prevent Ruiz from leading the AL again? His performance at the plate. Considering how little power production he brings to the table, the 25-year-old may need to improve his on-base skills (.309 OBP in 2023) to avoid ceding some playing time in Oakland’s outfield.

Others receiving votes: Bobby Witt Jr., Julio Rodríguez, Jarren Duran

NL: Ronald Acuña Jr., Braves
Acuña made history in 2023, not only becoming the fifth 40-40 player ever but also the first member of the 40-70 club en route to the NL MVP Award. Acuña stole 73 bases in all, 19 more than the next closest NL player. There’s reason to wonder if the right meniscus injury -- the same knee on which he underwent surgery to repair a torn ACL in 2021 -- will cause him to be more cautious on the bases, but manager Brian Snitker doesn’t expect the 26-year-old to be any less aggressive in 2024. Evidently, neither do our voters.

Others receiving votes: Corbin Carroll, CJ Abrams, Victor Scott II, Elly De La Cruz, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Nico Hoerner, Trea Turner

ERA

AL: Corbin Burnes, Orioles; Luis Castillo, Mariners
Our voters were split in this category between Burnes, a newcomer to the AL after being traded from the Brewers to the Orioles in February, and Castillo, Seattle’s Opening Day starter. Burnes has one ERA title on his resume, leading the NL with a 2.43 ERA the year he won the league’s Cy Young Award. Castillo, meanwhile, finished fifth in the AL with a 3.34 ERA last season.

Others receiving votes: George Kirby, Kevin Gausman, Pablo López, Tarik Skubal, Framber Valdez, Kyle Bradish, Gerrit Cole, Cole Ragans, Jacob deGrom, Zach Eflin

NL: Spencer Strider, Braves
Strider’s 3.86 ERA ranked outside the NL’s Top 10 in 2023, but that number belied how dominant he was for much of the season. The right-hander led the Majors in strikeouts (281) and the NL in FIP (2.85). Furthermore, his expected ERA -- based on quality of contact, K’s and BB’s -- was third lowest in the Majors (min. 500 batters faced). It’s likely why a plurality of our voters expect Strider to lead the NL in ERA in 2024.

Others receiving votes: Logan Webb, Justin Steele, Zack Wheeler, Max Fried, Zac Gallen, Blake Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Freddy Peralta, Kodai Senga, Sonny Gray, Merrill Kelly, Shota Imanaga

Strikeouts

AL: Pablo López, Twins
With an increase in velocity and the introduction of a sweeper to his repertoire, López reached new heights following a trade from the Marlins to the Twins. Notching a career-high 234 strikeouts on the year, López finished just three K’s shy of Blue Jays righty Kevin Gausman’s AL-leading total. Minnesota’s ace is our panel’s pick to top the AL strikeouts leaderboard in 2024.

Others receiving votes: Corbin Burnes, Luis Castillo, Kevin Gausman, Gerrit Cole, Tarik Skubal, Cole Ragans, Framber Valdez, Carlos Rodón, George Kirby

NL: Spencer Strider, Braves
Seventeen pitchers across the Majors reached the 200-strikeout plateau in 2023, but Strider was in another stratosphere with his MLB-leading 281 K’s -- 44 more than any other pitcher. Having added a ridiculous curveball to his arsenal, he could have 300 strikeouts in his sights in 2024.

Others receiving votes: Zack Wheeler, Jesús Luzardo, Zac Gallen, Blake Snell, Paul Skenes, Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Saves

AL: Josh Hader, Astros
Guardians closer Emmanuel Clase has led the Majors in saves in each of the past two years, but his streak could come to an end now that Hader has joined up with the Astros, one of MLB’s most successful organizations dating back to 2017. After finishing 2022 with a 5.22 ERA, Hader bounced back last season to post a microscopic 1.28 ERA while converting 33 of his 38 save chances for the Padres.

Others receiving votes: Emmanuel Clase, Jhoan Duran, Jordan Romano, Andrés Muñoz, Craig Kimbrel, Clay Holmes, Pete Fairbanks

NL: Edwin Díaz, Mets
Díaz is back after missing all of 2023 while recovering from a patellar tendon tear in his right knee, an injury he suffered during the World Baseball Classic, and our panel clearly doesn’t expect the flamethrowing righty to have any rust. Díaz has topped out at 32 saves during his time with the Mets, but he notched 57 saves -- tied for the second most in a single season -- back in 2018 with the Mariners.

Others receiving votes: Camilo Doval, Alexis Díaz, David Bednar, Raisel Iglesias, Evan Phillips, Paul Sewald