5 series to keep your eye on this week

It might be hard to believe, but we're nearly two months into the regular season.

Through about a third of the season, many teams and players have performed pretty much how everyone expected prior to the year (we're looking at you, Braves and Dodgers). Others, however, have performed beyond even the wildest of optimistic expectations (say hi to the Rangers, Orioles and Rays).

In what is shaping up to be an exciting week, many of baseball's best and unexpected top teams will match up. Here are the five series to watch during the week of May 22.

Blue Jays (25-22) at Rays (34-14)
4 games (Monday-Thursday)

Head-to-head: After starting this season 13-0, the Rays lost both their first game and first series against the Blue Jays in Toronto last month. The two teams had an evenly matched series, with the Rays narrowly outscoring the Blue Jays 13-12 in the three-game set. This mirrored last season's tight matchups when the Rays went 10-9 and outscored the Blue Jays 82-73. The Rays enter this series with the best record in the Majors.

Storyline: Can the Jays get their offense going? For an offense that finished top five in runs (775), wRC+ (117) and WAR (31.2) in 2022, their middle-of-the-pack placement in '23 is certainly surprising. It's been a feast-or-famine performance for the Jays' offense. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, Matt Chapman and Kevin Kiermaier all have a wRC+ between 135 and 147. Outside of Brandon Belt (113 wRC+), the remaining seven Jays' hitters with 50 or more plate appearances have a wRC+ south of 100.

Watch out for: Josh Lowe. One of many Rays who've sparked a huge offensive turnaround, Lowe has taken off as one of the best hitters in the Majors in 2023. His 184 wRC+ trails only teammate Yandy Díaz's 191 wRC+ among MLB hitters with at least 100 plate appearances. Lowe has cut his strikeout rate by more than 10% and is slugging a whopping .652, which is behind only Jake Burger and just ahead of Aaron Judge.

Dodgers (29-19) at Braves (29-17)
3 games (Monday-Wednesday)

Head-to-head: Two of baseball's best teams of the season and last half-decade will match up in a series that has predominantly favored the Dodgers in recent years. It's been a full decade (2013) since the Braves last took a regular-season series from the Dodgers. Even the playoff matchups have leaned Dodgers, with Los Angeles winning two of the three postseason matchups against Atlanta. For the Dodgers, this week represents a tough task as they'll face both the Braves and the Rays in consecutive series.

Storyline: Is this yet another preview of a potential NLCS? Both teams have gotten very familiar with each other in the playoffs in recent years. The Dodgers took both the 2018 NLDS and '20 NLCS from the Braves, the latter season which resulted in LA's first World Series title since '88. The Braves, meanwhile, got their vengeance in the '21 NLCS on their way to their first World Series trophy since '95. As it currently stands, both teams have the best records in the National League and look like clear favorites to win their respective divisions. We'll also get to see Freddie Freeman back in Atlanta, where he excelled over 12 years before signing a six-year deal with L.A. in March 2022.

Watch out for: Ronald Acuña Jr. The 25-year-old has ascended to superstardom this year and is on pace for one of the most impressive seasons we've ever seen. Acuña Jr. is hitting .344/.431/.600, has slugged 11 home runs and swiped 18 stolen bases. Acuña Jr. is on a 162-game pace (he's played in every game for the Braves) for 38 home runs and 63 stolen bases. No player has ever hit 40 home runs and stolen 60, or even 50, bases in the same season.

Astros (27-19) at Brewers (25-21)
3 games (Monday-Wednesday)

Head-to-head: The two clubs head into the series with similar records. The Brewers hold the top spot in the NL Central while the Astros have stormed back from a mediocre start to be just two games back of the Rangers for first place in the AL West. This is the first regular-season matchup between the two teams since they split their four-game set in 2019.

Storyline: Can either of these teams pull ahead in their divisions? The NL Central is up for grabs for the Brewers, who, along with the Pirates, are the only two teams above .500 in the division. The Astros are looking to once again take control of an AL West division that they've owned for a decade. Houston has gone 9-1 in its last 10 games and is knocking on the door of taking possession of first place.

Watch out for: Astros pitching. Despite key injuries to Luis Garcia, José Urquidy and Lance McCullers Jr. and the offseason departure of Justin Verlander, Astros pitchers lead the Majors with their 3.21 ERA and 3.68 expected FIP. Framber Valdez (fresh off a shutout on Sunday), Hunter Brown and Cristian Javier all rank as top 25 starters by WAR (min. 30 innings) while Astros relievers' 3.01 ERA trails only the Yankees.

Rangers (29-17) at Orioles (31-16)
3 games (Friday-Sunday)

Head-to-head: Both teams enter the series as two of the biggest surprises of the 2023 season. The Rangers narrowly hold a lead in the AL West over Houston while the Orioles hold the top Wild Card spot in the American League. The O's took two of three games against the Rangers in Arlington earlier this year.

Storyline: Are both of these teams legit? After heavily investing in their club the two previous offseasons, the Rangers' moves have paid dividends. The Rangers' offense leads the Majors with 297 runs scored while their starting pitchers are top-5 in both ERA (3.38) and WAR (5.0). The O's, meanwhile, have a strong group of position players and the league's most formidable bullpen (first in strikeout rate and WAR). It remains to be seen if either team can keep this up but they've put themselves in a great playoff position with strong starts.

Watch out for: Both team's catchers. Adley Rutschman is a full-blown superstar who has been a top-10 position player by WAR (6.7) since debuting in May '22. Rutschman is undeniably the face of the O's franchise who is both a great hitter and defender and a leader for the burgeoning Baltimore squad. Jonah Heim has basically matched Rutschman this year, with his 1.8 WAR trailing only Sean Murphy among catchers. Heim owns a 133 wRC+ in 2023 and has had one of the largest improvements of any hitter.

Padres (21-26) at Yankees (29-20)
3 games (Friday-Sunday)

Head-to-head: The Padres have scuffled this year, especially the last few weeks, and enter the series trying to right the ship. The Yankees, despite a barrage of injuries, have more than held their own and occupy the second AL Wild Card spot. This represents the first matchup between these two teams since the Yankees took two of three games at Yankee Stadium in 2019.

Storyline: Can the Padres get going? 2023 was supposed to be a building block upon a '22 season in which the Padres made it all the way to Game 5 of the NLCS. What was supposed to be one of the most exciting and talented teams in baseball has had a lackluster performance and ranks near the middle of the pack in many hitting and pitching categories. With the type of firepower their team possesses, it feels like it's only a matter of time before they start playing better.

Watch out for: Aaron Judge. After blasting an AL-record 62 home runs in 2022, Judge is picking up right where he left off. While his wRC+ has "declined" from 207 in '22 to 178 this year, his underlying numbers suggest that he's largely been the same hitter. His .472 expected wOBA -- based on the quality of contact (exit velo / launch angle), K’s + BB’s -- is actually higher than his .463 xwOBA from his '22 season.