Who will rule the 9th inning in '23?

Considering the randomness involved, predicting the yearly MLB saves leader might be as difficult as any stat in baseball.

But we’re making a call to the bullpen and asking five MLB.com writers to give it their best shot. Here’s who they think will rule the ninth inning in 2023. (As a reminder, Emmanuel Clase did it in 2022, following Mark Melancon in 2021, Brad Hand in 2020, Kirby Yates in 2019 and Edwin Díaz in 2018.)

Edwin Díaz, Mets
2022 total: 32 saves

We don’t make predictions based solely on entrances, we promise. But "Narco" by Blasterjaxx with Timmy Trumpet got its viral moments in 2022, and with good reason. Fittingly, Díaz had four more saves at home than on the road. It’s the trumpets.

All intangibles aside, Díaz is an elite closer on a team expected to be competitive yet again – a great recipe for plenty of saves. He struck out 50.2% of batters he faced last season, the third-highest strikeout rate in a season (min. 40 IP).

He averaged 99.1 mph on his four-seamer … and got misses on more than half of the swings against his slider. That slider had a minus-22 run value, tied for fifth highest in MLB. It’s a counting stat, and his was the most valuable individual pitch from any reliever.

He was in the 97th percentile or better in xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, strikeout rate, whiff rate, chase rate, fastball velocity and extension.

Díaz led MLB in saves in 2018, and he can do it again.

-- Sarah Langs

Emmanuel Clase, Guardians
2022 total: 42 saves (led MLB)

Not only did Clase lead MLB in saves last season, he also topped all pitchers in games finished (67) and appearances (77). Oh, and the right-hander did all that while posting a 1.36 ERA and a 0.73 WHIP on the strength of a stellar 77-to-10 strikeout-to-walk ratio. In other words, Clase pitches often and dominates when he’s on the mound, thanks to his ridiculous 100 mph cutter and nasty slider.

Just peek at Clase’s elite percentile rankings in various metrics, from xwOBA (99th) to hard-hit rate (90th) to chase percentage (100th). No wonder he’s given up all of 16 extra-base hits the past two seasons -- or about one every 10 appearances.

Relatedly, Cleveland’s pitching staff always excels, while the offense and defense typically do just enough to win close games. That’s a perfect recipe for save opportunities. Bottom line: A repeat performance as the saves king by Clase in his age-25 season would not be surprising at all.

-- Jason Catania

Josh Hader, Padres
2022 total: 36 saves

This past season was a bit of a rollercoaster ride for Hader, yet the left-hander still finished in the top five in the Majors in saves. Admittedly, his 5.22 ERA (including 7.31 after a trade to the Padres) looks ugly, but his underlying statistics (3.45 FIP, 3.51 xERA) tell a much less alarming story. Hader still throws hard, still misses a lot of bats and still piles up K’s. Most encouraging, the Padres helped him through some mechanical adjustments, allowing him to emerge from a rough July and August to author a Hader-like final month (10 1/3 innings, four hits, one earned run, 13 strikeouts). Then he was overwhelmingly dominant during San Diego’s postseason run.

With the trade from the Brewers now firmly in the rearview mirror, Hader begins 2023 as the clear-cut closer for a Padres club that should be one of MLB’s best. That means plenty of save opportunities, and perhaps, the four-time All-Star’s first 40-save campaign.

-- Andrew Simon

Raisel Iglesias, Braves
2022 total: 17 saves

This pick is as much about the Braves as it is about Iglesias. First of all, Atlanta followed up its 2021 World Series title with 101 wins a year ago and should be a top contender again in 2023, which means a copious amount of save opportunities. In 2022, Kenley Jansen led the NL with 41 saves while pitching for the Braves, finishing second to Emmanuel Clase on the MLB leaderboard. Jansen is now with the Red Sox, leaving the closer role to Iglesias, who joined the club at the 2022 Trade Deadline.

Also important here is the bullpen strategy of Braves manager Brian Snitker. While other clubs might cycle through closers throughout the season, Snitker recently has shown a preference for having one pitcher handle the bulk of the save chances. In 2020, Mark Melancon had 11 of the Braves’ 13 saves. In 2021, Will Smith recorded 37 of the team’s 40 saves. And in 2022, Jansen had 41 of Atlanta’s 55 saves. (Jansen likely would have had more saves last season, but he missed about two weeks due to an irregular heartbeat. While he was out, A.J. Minter notched four saves and Will Smith had three.)

Of course, it helps that Iglesias has a track record of success in the ninth inning and was absolutely untouchable down the stretch for the Braves last season. The right-hander had only one save for Atlanta, but he registered a 0.34 ERA, a 0.84 WHIP and 30 K’s in 26 1/3 innings with the team.
-- Thomas Harrigan

Devin Williams, Brewers
2022 total: 15 saves

Now that Josh Hader is in San Diego, it will be Williams’ time to shine as Milwaukee’s full-time closer. The 28-year-old right-hander has electric stuff, with a fastball that can reach triple digits and a devastating changeup. The 2020 NL Rookie of the Year took something off his fastball last season, also increasing his fastball usage vis-à-vis his changeup, resulting in a 1.93 ERA over 60 2/3 innings.

Williams was destined to be a closer at some point, and now he’s going to get that chance. His two-pitch mix is simple but very effective, and he has struck out 40 percent of batters he’s faced during his four-year MLB career. After the departure of Hader, the Brewers just swapped one flamethrower for another in the closer role, and Williams converted nine of 11 save opportunities from that point through the end of the regular season.

-- Manny Randhawa