One preseason prediction we got wrong for each team

Prior to any baseball season, prognosticating is the order of the day. It's fun to try and predict what will happen in the season ahead. But it's inevitable that some of our predictions just won't materialize.

With that in mind, as we hit the stretch run of the regular season, we look at one thing we got wrong for each club:

Jump to: AL East | AL Central | AL West | NL East | NL Central | NL West

American League East

Blue Jays: That this team would make the postseason
Fresh off back-to-back AL Wild Card Series heartbreaks, the Blue Jays came close to making the past offseason a franchise-altering one, but they ended up with marginal additions to their roster instead. On paper, this still looked like a group that could contend in the AL East, but a combination of injuries and an offensive slump in the early months pushed Toronto to the basement of the division and steered the club toward selling at the Trade Deadline. The Blue Jays will get at least one more chance at competing with this core, though, and some of the pieces added via trade have already kicked off the re-tooling process for 2025. -- Julia Kreuz

Orioles: There were too many starters for the rotation
Heading into Spring Training, many wondered how the O’s would fit all of their starters onto their pitching staff. Then, June brought season-ending UCL surgeries for Kyle Bradish, John Means and Tyler Wells, a trio that made a combined 15 starts. Dean Kremer and Grayson Rodriguez have also spent time on the injured list, with Rodriguez currently on the IL due to a right lat/teres strain that is expected to sideline him until late September. Now, the question is whether Baltimore has the starter depth to make a deep run through October. Ace Corbin Burnes and Trade Deadline acquisition Zach Eflin have been terrific and will need to lead the staff. -- Jake Rill

Rays: Thinking their lineup wouldn’t fall off
Typically built on pitching and defense, the Rays were also one of the best offensive teams in baseball last year, ranking fourth in OPS and runs scored and sixth in home runs. Even with the continued absence of shortstop Wander Franco, most of the key hitters from the 2023 club were set to return this season. But their offensive production hasn’t been enough to keep them from hovering around .500 all season. Brandon Lowe and Josh Lowe were injured early on, while Yandy Díaz and the since-traded Randy Arozarena spent months mired in slumps. As a result, they entered the week ranked 28th in runs scored, 26th in home runs and 25th in OPS. -- Adam Berry

Red Sox: That Connor Wong was just a defensive catcher
In his first full season in the Majors last year, Wong slashed .235/.288/.385 with nine homers, 36 RBIs and 134 strikeouts in 371 at-bats. There was little reason to believe Wong would turn into one of the best offensive catchers in the Majors in ‘24, but he has. In 91 games and 329 at-bats through action on Aug. 13, Wong has a sturdy slash line of .295/.352/.441 with 11 homers and 43 RBIs. This didn’t just happen by accident. Wong spent a lot of time in the offseason with Boston’s hitting coaches to improve his approach and mechanics and it has paid off. -- Ian Browne

Yankees: Expecting the good times to last forever
Ever hit one of those stretches on a Manhattan avenue where the lights all turn green? That’s how it felt through the first 10 weeks of the season, as the Yankees awoke in their Boston hotel rooms on the morning of June 15 with a Major League-best 50-22 record. Not only were the Yanks the Majors’ first team to 50 wins, but they paced the league in runs scored and staff ERA. Reality hit hard, as the Yanks spiraled through a funk that lasted into the All-Star break, highlighting weak spots on the roster. The ‘98 Yanks, these are not, though they’ve still got Aaron Judge and Juan Soto … and that’s better than most. -- Bryan Hoch

AL Central

Guardians: That the Guardians would have a subpar year
It was hard enough to envision a team with a losing record last year that made very few changes to its roster over the offseason would be in contention in 2024, let alone still competing for the best record in baseball in the middle of August. To say the Guardians have shocked the baseball world would be a drastic understatement. The team that hit just 124 home runs last season (which was the fewest by any team) eclipsed that total in the first week of August. Even though the rotation hasn’t been as stable as everyone has been used to, the Guardians’ offense and elite bullpen have carried this team to places well beyond anyone’s early-season predictions. -- Mandy Bell

Royals: That Bobby Witt Jr. would be just an All-Star
OK, we got the All-Star prediction right for Witt, and you could predict he’d be the centerpiece of the Royals’ lineup. But the way he’s playing now? Come on. Witt is in the top five in many offensive categories, including his .347 average (first), .395 on-base percentage (third) and .607 slugging percentage (third). He’s one of four players in baseball with an OPS over 1.000. Witt’s 8.2 fWAR is already the fourth-best single season fWAR by a position player in franchise history, and it’s just slightly behind Aaron Judge’s 8.3 fWAR this year. To watch what Witt is doing every night, whether it be at the plate or in the field, is something to behold. He’s not just an All-Star; he’s a bona fide superstar. -- Anne Rogers

Tigers: That Spencer Torkelson had arrived
What was hoped to be a platform season to stardom for Torkelson, who was coming off 31 home runs in 2023, instead became a season in which he struggled to repeat that type of production. He batted .224 with no home runs over his first 37 games before homering four times over a 13-game stretch mid-May. The Tigers optioned him to Triple-A Toledo to work on his swing amidst an 0-for-16, nine-strikeout slump. He has regained his power with the Mud Hens and seems likely to return to Detroit at some point down the stretch, but his struggles left a void in the middle of a mercurial Tigers lineup. -- Jason Beck

Twins: That this would be a breakout year for Pablo López
López has been regarded as one of the better starting pitchers in the AL thanks to a 3.57 ERA from 2020-23 with the Marlins and Twins. Last season, the right-hander was an All-Star for the first time and finished seventh in AL Cy Young Award voting. So, naturally, he seemed primed for a big season in ’24. Things didn’t work out that way through the first half of the season -- at the All-Star break, his ERA was 5.11. The good news for the Twins is that so far in the second half, he’s looked much more like himself, with a 3.19 ERA over five starts. Cy Young Award contention won’t happen this season, but it’s certainly not out of the question in the years ahead. -- Manny Randhawa

White Sox: Thinking Garrett Crochet couldn’t make the starting adjustment
Crochet didn’t realize he was breaking camp as part of the White Sox rotation until he was selected as the team’s Opening Day starter. That story has now been told numerous times, but it highlights how much uncertainty surrounded the notion that Crochet and his 73 innings over three seasons as a reliever would be able to work every five days. Not only did Crochet answer the questions, but the 6-foot-6, 245-pound southpaw did so in All-Star fashion. His career-high 167 strikeouts over a career-high 120 2/3 innings rank second in the AL behind Tarik Skubal, and he owns a 1.07 WHIP and .217 average against. The White Sox have been careful with Crochet’s post All-Star break workload, but there’s no doubt he’s a starter at an elite level. -- Scott Merkin

AL West

Angels: That they rushed their youngsters to the Majors
The Angels were incredibly aggressive with shortstop Zach Neto and first baseman Nolan Schanuel, promoting them to the Majors not long after being drafted. They both got off to slow starts before picking it up and being two of the most productive players on the team. They both figure to be a huge part of the club’s young core going forward, joining catcher Logan O’Hoppe, closer Ben Joyce, right-hander José Soriano and right fielder Jo Adell. Schanuel is still just 22, while Neto is 23. The next player who could fit that mold is top prospect Christian Moore, who was the No. 8 pick in this year’s Draft and is already dominating at Double-A Rocket City. -- Rhett Bollinger

Astros: That young starting pitchers might not be ready
Houston’s starting rotation depth was tested early in the season with Cristian Javier and J.P. France landing on the IL with season-ending injuries, while Justin Verlander missed more than two months with a neck injury and the injury comebacks of Luis Garcia, José Urquidy and Lance McCullers Jr. suffered major setbacks. Up stepped Hunter Brown, who shook off a poor April and has emerged as a force (9-3, 2.40 ERA in his last 15 starts), and Ronel Blanco, who had a terrific first half (9-3, 2.53 ERA over his first 17 starts) and threw the season’s first no-hitter. Rookie Spencer Arrighetti was forced to grow up quickly and has risen to the challenge. He’s posted a 3.25 ERA in his last six starts, with 25 strikeouts over his last two outings. -- Brian McTaggart

Athletics: That Brent Rooker would come back down to Earth
Despite becoming an All-Star for the first time in his career last season, there was some skepticism over whether Rooker’s 2023 campaign might have been somewhat fluky given how his numbers dipped following a strong start. Nobody is doubting Rooker’s abilities anymore. The A’s slugger has emerged as one of the best designated hitters in the game, entering Wednesday leading all AL DH’s in home runs (29), RBIs (83) and slugging percentage (.583). His .293 batting average and .950 OPS trailed only Astros star Yordan Alvarez. -- Martín Gallegos

Mariners: That the new-look lineup would be vastly improved
The offseason additions of Mitch Garver, Mitch Haniger and Jorge Polanco, and the subtractions of strikeout-prone hitters such as Teoscar Hernández, Eugenio Suárez and Jarred Kelenic, were supposed to add more contact and consistency. And while each of those three additions has had production, it’s been in spurts, and collectively, the Mariners find themselves leading MLB with a 27.8% strikeout rate and ranking third worst with a .671 OPS. Those struggles prompted the club to add Randy Arozarena and Justin Turner ahead of the Trade Deadline, in an effort to return to the postseason in a year that they face heightened expectations. -- Daniel Kramer

Rangers: That Wyatt Langford would set the world on fire
In hindsight, it probably was asking a lot for a 22-year-old who was in college just eight months prior to his MLB debut to hold down the heart of the Rangers' lineup. But he’s still struggled more than anybody could have expected this season. Langford set the Minors and the Cactus League on fire after being selected No. 4 overall in the 2023 MLB Draft. He slashed just .224/.295/.293 before landing on the injured list with a hamstring strain in mid-May. He was then named the AL Rookie of the Month and the Rangers' co-player of the month for June when he hit .309/.368/.526. He seemed to hit his stride and finally figure out big league pitching before his most recent skid -- he’s hit .195 over his last 30 games. -- Kennedi Landry

National League East

Braves: That the offense would match last year’s dominance
Losing Ronald Acuña Jr. two months into the season has had a big impact. But this offense began to slumber at the end of April, while the reigning NL MVP was still playing. Marcell Ozuna has finally gotten some assistance from Matt Olson, Austin Riley and Jorge Soler. But nobody could have predicted the rotation would be this team’s strength. Despite losing Spencer Strider after two starts, Atlanta sent three starting pitchers -- Chris Sale, Reynaldo López and Max Fried -- to the All-Star Game. -- Mark Bowman

Marlins: Exactly who would make (or break) the rotation
The Marlins opened the season with Jesús Luzardo as their de facto ace and A.J. Puk as part of their five-man rotation. With a month and a half left, Luzardo is done for the year and Puk -- who posted a 9.22 ERA in just four starts before being moved back to the bullpen -- was dealt to the D-backs at the Trade Deadline. Even before he was placed on the IL with a lumbar stress reaction, Luzardo recorded a 5.00 ERA over 12 starts (66 2/3 innings) -- one of a handful of Miami starters who have been on the IL this season as they’ve struggled to maintain their rotation. -- Paige Leckie

Mets: Look who’s on third; it’s not Baty
Entering Spring Training, a lot of baseball people saw third baseman Mark Vientos as a designated hitter because of his below-average defensive skills. As the exhibition season was winding down, the Mets were looking for a more experienced DH and acquired J.D. Martinez. It meant Vientos was the odd man out and sent back to Triple-A Syracuse. Vientos, however, worked his way back to Majors for good by mid-May, replacing the slumping Brett Baty at third. You will not hear manager Carlos Mendoza complain about Vientos’ defensive skills or plate discipline. Don’t be surprised if first base is in Vientos’ future if New York is unable to re-sign Pete Alonso after the season. -- Bill Ladson

Nationals: Which veterans would be dealt at the Trade Deadline
Given the Nationals' success in trading veterans on expiring deals for prospects at the Trade Deadline, that seemed like the likely scenario when they signed Joey Gallo and Nick Senzel to one-year contracts this past offseason. Gallo, though, has been on the injured list since June 12 because of a left hamstring strain, and Senzel was designated for assignment on July 6. Of players in such situations, Dylan Floro and Jesse Winker were traded. -- Jessica Camerato

Phillies: That Bryson Stott would have a breakout season
Stott hit .300 through mid-August last season, so he was a popular pick to have a breakout 2024. Theoretically, Stott was going to hit .300 for the entire campaign. He was going to make his first NL All-Star team. But Stott has struggled this year. He entered Wednesday batting .232 with eight homers, 45 RBIs, a .652 OPS and an 84 OPS+. Stott has the talent to turn everything around and finish strong, which would be a welcome development as the Phils charge into the postseason. -- Todd Zolecki

NL Central

Brewers: That they’d take a step back this year
First-year manager Pat Murphy is exaggerating when he says everybody expected the Brewers to finish last this year, but who had them leading the NL Central for every day but one after April 10? That’s a bona fide surprise for a team that had a managerial change, is without both of its longtime co-aces (Brandon Woodruff is injured, Corbin Burnes was traded) and whose only really significant offseason signing was first baseman Rhys Hoskins, coming off a yearlong rehab from knee surgery. On top of that, the reigning NL Reliever of the Year, Devin Williams, missed the first four months with a back injury. Yet the Brewers are positioned for a fourth division title in the last seven years, and a sixth postseason appearance in that span. -- Adam McCalvy

Cardinals: That the offense would have a big bounce-back season and carry the club
St. Louis spent its offseason reworking its pitching staff, but it largely ignored an offense that was expected to be significantly better this season. However, Cardinals cornerstones Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado have slumped most of the season, especially in terms of their power production. Goldschmidt went into Wednesday’s game hitting .179, slugging .245 and with three extra-base hits with runners in scoring position. As for Arenado, he has 12 home runs this season and has had trouble pulling balls in the air. Disappointing seasons from Nolan Gorman, Jordan Walker and Lars Nootbaar haven’t helped matters. If not for breakout seasons from Alec Burleson and Masyn Winn, things could have been much more of a struggle from a Cards club that ranks 27th in baseball in batting average (.229) with runners in scoring position. -- John Denton

Cubs: That the offense would be a strength of the team
The North Siders finished the 2023 season sixth in the Majors in runs scored and headed into ‘24 with virtually the same group. The expectation was that the lineup would remain one of the deeper one-through-nine units, even without a true superstar anchoring the middle. The Cubs' offense has had its moments -- both April and July featured solid production -- but the run-scoring bottomed up through May and June to an extreme level. Injuries and some down years from key players played a role. While things have been better of late, Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer has to examine his roster and find a way to harness more consistency in ‘25. One step already taken was acquiring Isaac Paredes at the Trade Deadline for third base. -- Jordan Bastian

Pirates: That the rotation was the weakness
Remember back in Spring Training when the expectation was that the Pirates’ bullpen would have to carry a rotation with plenty of question marks? That certainly wasn’t the case. Jared Jones, Paul Skenes, Bailey Falter and Luis Ortiz each took a big step forward to form a formidable rotation with Mitch Keller, while the bullpen has been shaky at different points throughout the season. Entering Wednesday, the Pirates’ rotation had a 3.65 ERA on the season, the third-best in baseball. -- Alex Stumpf

Reds: That there was plenty of infield depth
When the Reds added free agent Jeimer Candelario in December, the first thought was that they had too many infielders, a rotation would be needed and Jonathan India might become a role player. Then third baseman Noelvi Marte was hit with an 80-game PED suspension, second baseman Matt McLain needed left shoulder surgery in Spring Training and first baseman Christian Encarnacion-Strand struggled out of the gate before fracturing his left hand getting hit by a pitch in early May. The club had to trade for utility infielder Santiago Espinal at the end camp to have depth and has spent most of the season with a power and production deficit at first base. Candelario has had an up and down year. Marte struggled when he returned from suspension. And India? He’s been the starter at second base all season. -- Mark Sheldon

NL West

D-backs: That Jake McCarthy was the odd man out in the outfield
When the D-backs re-signed free agent left fielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr., it seemed that Jake McCarthy was going to have a hard time finding his way into the lineup. In addition to Gurriel, the D-backs also had Corbin Carroll, who was coming off a Rookie of the Year season and Alek Thomas, who had a breakout performance in the NLCS, on the roster. McCarthy, meanwhile, was coming off a disappointing year at the plate and there were rumors that he was available via trade in the winter. But Carroll got off to a slow start and Thomas got hurt, giving McCarthy an opportunity that he has run with, putting up an OPS over .800 and taking playing time away from both Carroll and Thomas. -- Steve Gilbert

Dodgers: That they would run away with the NL West
For a couple of months, it looked like the Dodgers were going to cruise to their 10th NL West title in 11 seasons, but as they battled injuries and inconsistencies, Los Angeles opened the door just a bit for the Padres and D-backs, who have now made this a race. Still, the Dodgers entered Wednesday’s game with a 3 1/2-game lead atop the division, and with Mookie Betts back in the fold, they once again look like the team everyone envisioned following their $1 billion spending spree this winter. -- Juan Toribio

Giants: That Jorge Soler would break the 30-homer drought
The Giants haven’t had a hitter produce a 30-homer season since Barry Bonds in 2004, but they hoped Soler would be the man to finally snap that streak after joining the club on a three-year, $42 million deal in February. But the Cuban slugger ended up hitting only 12 home runs over 93 games before being dealt to the Braves at the July 30 Trade Deadline. With Soler no longer in the mix, the Giants’ best candidate to end the drought could be Matt Chapman, who entered Monday with a team-high 19 homers. -- Maria Guardado

Padres: That the Juan Soto trade meant the Padres weren’t contenders
Quite the opposite, in fact. Soto is producing at his usual Hall of Fame-caliber standards in New York. But the Padres have an outfield full of All-Stars without him. Meanwhile, they desperately needed pitching, and they found it by trading Soto. Michael King has been excellent. Dylan Cease -- acquired from the White Sox for a package of prospects headlined by former Yankee Drew Thorpe -- is an ace. Randy Vásquez and Jhony Brito have bolstered the depth. King recently called it “a mutually beneficial trade,” and it’s hard to argue otherwise. -- AJ Cassavell

Rockies: That they'd quickly find bullpen answers
The closer role was an issue from the start of Spring Training. Veteran Daniel Bard reported with a knee injury, but he revealed that right forearm trouble from last year was still a problem. Justin Lawrence and Tyler Kinley had late-game experience and were positioned to hold the role until Bard could return. But Bard underwent season-ending Tommy John right elbow surgery, and Lawrence and Kinley struggled. The Rockies’ record has been bad from the start, but they lost a number of winnable games because of an unsettled late bullpen. Fortunes are improving. Rookie Victor Vodnik has succeeded more often than not as closer, and Kinley -- who underwent flexor tendon surgery in 2022 -- has seen his feel to pitch improve the farther he gets from the surgery. -- Thomas Harding