Power Rankings: Who's in the top spot after first half?

The All-Star Game has come and gone, with all the thrills and excitement that come with it. But while the players may be appreciating these days off, on Friday, we all need to get back to business. The second half of the season – in reality, the last 40 percent or so of the schedule – brings expectations, hopes and, for some teams, perhaps resignation that maybe this just isn’t their year.

As we get ready for play to resume, the Power Rankings will reflect, for each team, a reasonable expectation. What should fans hope for from the rest of the season? What is each team looking for? I’ll try to reflect on that in each entry this week. Because there’s always something to play for. Sometimes there is a lot to play for.

These rankings, as always, are compiled from rankings from MLB.com contributors whose names you can find at the bottom of this (and every) piece, but the words are mine. If you dislike the rankings, yell at all of us. But if you dislike the words, feel free to yell at me.

• Current MLB standings

1. Phillies (previously: 1)
Season high: 1 | Season low: 8
Well, that race for the NL East isn’t looking like much of a race at all: The Phils are up 8 1/2 games over the Braves at the break. For all the stars the Phillies have in their lineup, it’s the pitching that has been the standout. You could make an argument that the Phillies have three of the top 10 starters in the National League, and none of them is named Aaron Nola. This team is older and expensive, but it’s peaking right now. This is going to be their best shot.
Reasonable Expectation: Win the World Series while you can.

2. Guardians (previously: 4)
Season high: 2 | Season low: 21
What a first half. José Ramírez, Emmanuel Clase, Josh Naylor, David Fry, Hunter Gaddis, Steven Kwan, holy cow, Steven Kwan. The Guardians aren’t just good, they’re fun. But the Twins and Royals are still in the hunt. Will the team that was so hesitant to add in the offseason do so at the Trade Deadline?
Reasonable Expectation: Win the division, for starters. But you know, years like this don’t come along often. Let’s go all the way.

3. Orioles (previously: 2)
Season high: 1 | Season low: 5
The addition of Corbin Burnes was supposed to make all the difference, but the Orioles have had to plug leaks that have popped up all over. That they’ve, so far, been able to successfully do this speaks to their depth of talent. They still have holes. Will they use their wealth of prospects to address them?
Reasonable Expectation: Win the division … and finally win a playoff series.

4. Yankees (previously: 5)
Season high: 1 | Season low: 7
The Yankees always inspire high emotions, and they’ve had a season of highs and lows. They looked like the best team in baseball, then the worst, then the best again. They’ve landed in a pretty happy place, all told: Fighting the Orioles for first place and with a clear sense of the needs at the Deadline. Plus, having Aaron Judge and Juan Soto is kind of nice.
Reasonable Expectation: Oh, just winning the World Series, like always.

5. Dodgers (previously: 3)
Season high: 1 | Season low: 6
Injuries to Mookie Betts and Yoshinobu Yamamoto made those hopes for a 120-win super team fall away, but the Dodgers are as well positioned as usual. They’re going to win their division, they’re getting those injured players back and they can add help wherever they need it at the Deadline. We’re going to get to watch Shohei Ohtani in a playoff game real soon.
Reasonable Expectation: Oh, just winning the World Series, like always.

6. Brewers (previously: 6)
Season high: 5 | Season low: 19
This was supposed to be the year when the Brewers ran out of gas. They lost their manager and their ace after a season in which they were swept out of the first round of the playoffs. How was this team supposed to be better? But once again, the Brewers foiled the doubters and are leading the NL Central. They could still use some more starting pitching, but this division is hardly scary.
Reasonable Expectation: Finish off another division title.

7. Braves (previously: 7)
Season high: 1 | Season low: 9
No team is going to just shake off the loss of Ronald Acuña Jr., and the Braves certainly miss him. But they’re keeping their heads above water and certainly seem primed to have a home series in the playoffs. They may be ticketed for another showdown with the Phillies in October.
Reasonable Expectation: Get past Philly this time.

8. Twins (previously: 8)
Season high: 8 | Season low: 23
The Twins went into the break on a 19-11 roll, but they also were, as usual, nursing their fair share of injuries and probably happy to have a few days off. As great as the Guardians have been, the Twins are still within striking distance.
Reasonable Expectation: A division title would be nice, but now that they’ve finally won a playoff series … how about another one?

9. Mariners (previously: 10)
Season high: 6 | Season low: 21
The Mariners didn’t pull away from the Astros and Rangers when they had the chance, ensuring this is going to be a fight until the end. It certainly helps that Julio Rodríguez looks like he’s working his way back to his MVP-caliber self.
Reasonable Expectation: Their first AL West title in 23 years.

10. Astros (previously: 9)
Season high: 6 | Season low: 26
You never really thought the Astros were out of it, did you? They sure are in the middle of everything now, reclaiming their spot as one of the scariest teams in the American League. Remember, this is a team going for its eighth ALCS in a row. They’re not going to go away. Someone’s going to have to beat them.
Reasonable Expectation: Is it too much to ask for another ALCS?

11. Red Sox (previously: 11)
Season high: 11 | Season low: 22
The Red Sox were picked last in the AL East in most preseason predictions, but excellent starting pitching and excellent seasons from Rafael Devers, Jarren Duran, Tyler O’Neill and Connor Wong have put them in the thick of the playoff chase.
Reasonable Expectation: Stay in the AL Wild Card hunt.

12. Cardinals (previously: 13)
Season high: 12 | Season low: 27
Cardinals fans were mighty restless after a tough start, on the heels of a last-place season, but from Mother’s Day on, this has been one of the best teams in the National League. The rotation is still a little flimsy and they could probably use a right-handed bat, but the approaching disaster, so far, appears to be averted.
Reasonable Expectation: Get rebound second halves from Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado and get back to the playoffs.

13. Royals (previously: 14)
Season high: 6 | Season low: 24
The new regime in Kansas City has clear proof of concept: They’re going to go from 106 losses to, likely, a winning record. But have they come so far that anything but a playoff appearance, at this point, will feel like a disappointment?
Reasonable Expectation: A .500 finish, even though making the playoffs would be pretty nice, too.

14. Mets (previously: 15)
Season high: 10 | Season low: 25
Call it Grimace, call it the team meeting, call it forever weird Mets kismet, but a team that looked dead in the water right before Memorial Day is now in the thick of the playoff chase. The offense has carried this team for nearly two months now. This is becoming nearly as happy a surprise as last season’s team was an unhappy one.
Reasonable Expectation: Make the playoffs, even though falling short would feel a lot less frustrating than what happened in 2023.

15. Padres (previously: 12)
Season high: 9 | Season low: 21
The vibes in 2024 have been light years better than the vibes of 2023, but as a 1-6 stumble before the break revealed, that can still evaporate quickly. The Padres have a lot going for them that they didn’t have last year. But they’ll still need more than just the vibes.
Reasonable Expectation: Make the playoffs, or it’s just last year all over again.

16. D-backs (previously: 17)
Season high: 10 | Season low: 19
Just when everybody’s shoulders in Phoenix were slumping again, the D-backs got hot heading into the break, thanks in no small part to Corbin Carroll looking like Corbin Carroll again. They’re in the thick of the Wild Card chase again, too.
Reasonable Expectation: If you can get into the 2023 postseason with a negative run differential, you should be able to get into the 2024 one with a positive one.

17. Rays (previously: 20)
Season high: 9 | Season low: 24
The Rays have been contenders for long enough now – they haven’t had a losing record since 2017 – that we’ve all sort of forgotten they used to sell all the time. If they decide to do so this year, they have a ton of inventory: Zach Eflin, Randy Arozarena and Brandon Lowe could just be the start.
Reasonable Expectation: Be ready to take a few steps back in order to take a few steps forward again, and soon.

18. Pirates (previously: 21)
Season high: 9 | Season low: 25
The Pirates’ young pitching gives this whole organization a North Star for the next few seasons, even if it’s a little early to start getting fired up too much about investing everything in the right now. The real question: How long do we get to watch Paul Skenes every fifth day?
Reasonable Expectation: Keep those young pitchers healthy, get a little bit of offense and build some momentum.

19. Reds (previously: 19)
Season high: 11 | Season low: 25
When you’re handicapping the NL Central over the second half, should you keep a closer eye on the Reds maybe making a run? They finished the first half strong, and the young hitters may all be coming together at once. Could they carry Cincinnati to a division title?
Reasonable Expectation: Even if the Reds can’t win the division – and again, they’re a smart sleeper pick – they should make a serious run at a Wild Card spot.

20. Rangers (previously: 18)
Season high: 4 | Season low: 21
Max Scherzer, before his solid start against the Astros in the final game of the first half, told the Foul Territory podcast that he wouldn’t be waiving his no-trade clause, namely because the Rangers wouldn’t be making any trades. “It’s gonna be a moot point to even talk about,” he said. “We’re gonna win here.” One wonders if the Rangers’ brass feels the same way.
Reasonable Expectation: Get on an immediate hot streak to start the second half and make a run at the playoffs.

21. Cubs (previously: 22)
Season high: 8 | Season low: 22
Many people – including your author – thought the Cubs were the NL Central favorites heading into the season. Instead, they’re in last place with a limping offense and injury issues everywhere. You have to wonder what’s going to happen with this roster … both in July, and in 2025.
Reasonable Expectation: It might be asking too much to get back in the NL Central race, but it sure would be nice if Dansby Swanson, who earned some down-ballot MVP votes the last couple of years, returned to some semblance of his previous form.

22. Giants (previously: 16)
Season high: 12 | Season low: 23
Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi said last week that his team needs “to show us what the right direction is,” which is not exactly a vote of confidence. This team loaded up on free agents in the offseason. It does not look like it has paid off.
Reasonable Expectation: Find out if their exciting young players (such as Heliot Ramos, Patrick Bailey and Hayden Birdsong) are supporting pieces or cornerstones to build around.

23. Tigers (previously: 24)
Season high: 7 | Season low: 24
The Tigers have had some excellent pitching atop their rotation this year from Tarik Skubal and Jack Flaherty, but the offense just hasn’t been there – again. There are still young players to have hope for in the future. But one hopes those hitters emerge in time for the pitching to still be there.
Reasonable Expectation: Signs of progress from their young bats, including Spencer Torkelson once he returns to the bigs.

24. Nationals (previously: 23)
Season high: 20 | Season low: 27
The little fight-for-a-Wild-Card-spot boomlet appears to have passed, which is fine: It allows the Nationals to use the rest of this season to focus on building toward the next real contending Nationals team … something that might be very much on the cusp of arriving.
Reasonable Expectation: Acquire more young talent to supplement the existing young core, most notably the 1-2 punch of CJ Abrams and James Wood.

25. Blue Jays (previously: 25)
Season high: 8 | Season low: 25
Are you still holding out hope that the Blue Jays can make a run? You probably shouldn’t: FanGraphs' playoffs odds only gives them a 1.8 percent chance of making the playoffs. It’s a huge bummer that this era in Toronto may well end in big-name stars being traded. That doesn’t mean it would be the wrong call.
Reasonable Expectation: Get the building blocks for the next era of contention … whenever that comes.

26. Angels (previously: 26)
Season high: 24 | Season low: 28
The Angels may need a new, overarching direction, either this year or sometime in the future, but it is worth noting that some young talent has emerged this season, most notably catcher Logan O’Hoppe and shortstop Zach Neto.
Reasonable Expectation: You’d love to see those guys continue to progress … maybe even alongside a healthy Mike Trout.

27. A’s (previously: 27)
Season high: 20 | Season low: 30
Brent Rooker has the sixth-highest wRC+ in the Majors among qualifiers (166), which is making him the source of a lot of trade rumors, albeit with a price tag that may be too cumbersome for most. The real question: Is Rooker (or Mason Miller) still with the team in August?
Reasonable Expectation: Be opportunistic on the trade market.

28. Rockies (previously: 28)
Season high: 27 | Season low: 29
Did you realize the Rockies just finished with the worst record at the All-Star break in franchise history? Any sort of positive direction, short- or long-term, would be appreciated.
Reasonable Expectation: Considering he remains signed through 2028, it’d be nice to see Kris Bryant have a healthy, productive finish.

29. Marlins (previously: 29)
Season high: 23 | Season low: 30
Much of the next couple of weeks will revolve around a potential trade of Jazz Chisholm Jr., but the Marlins, after a year in the postseason, are back to looking toward the future. Which is why top pitching prospect Max Meyer, when he inevitably gets called back up, will be a key player to watch.
Reasonable Expectation: Meyer ramping up to be the staff ace next year.

30. White Sox (previously: 30)
Season high: 28 | Season low: 30
The White Sox may trade one or more of Luis Robert Jr., Garrett Crochet, Erick Fedde and Paul DeJong, among others, before the Deadline. If they do, that will certainly not make it easier for them to win games down the stretch.
Reasonable Expectation: Avoid tying the 1962 Mets for the Modern Era record of 120 losses in a season.

Voters: Nathalie Alonso, Anthony Castrovince, Mark Feinsand, Alyson Footer, Will Leitch, Travis Miller, Sweeny Murti, Arturo Pardavila, Mike Petriello, Andrew Simon, David Venn.