If the postseason began today, these would be the matchups

We’re officially two months into the 2024 MLB regular season. There has been no shortage of exciting moments and unexpected developments that have already shaped what the playoff picture may look like this season. Given that we’re already more than a third of the way through the season, it’s time to look ahead to what playoff matchups would look like if the season ended today.

All stats are through Tuesday’s games.

American League

Byes: Guardians (1) and Yankees (2)

Wild Card Series matchups

Twins (6) at Mariners (3)

Royals (5) at Orioles (4)

Just missed: Red Sox (2 1/2 games out of WC spot), Tigers (3 1/2 games out of WC spot)

The Guardians have continued their incredible season with a nine-game winning streak that ended on Monday (they got back to their winning ways with a 13-7 victory on Tuesday). While winning the division was certainly not out of the question, getting off to a 37-18 start likely exceeds even the wildest of expectations. Only the Phillies (293 runs) have scored more runs than the Guardians (282), who have been led by perennial star José Ramírez (.886 OPS) and seen further growth from Josh Naylor (.831 OPS) and Steven Kwan (.903 OPS) -- the latter of whom is imminently set to return from the injured list.

Much like we saw last year in the AL East -- when the Orioles won the division with 101 wins and the Rays finished in second with 99 victories -- it could be a similar story for the top teams battling it out in 2024.

The Yankees currently hold a 1 1/2-game lead over the Orioles, but this could be back and forth all year. Juan Soto and Aaron Judge could legitimately finish 1-2 in AL MVP voting the way things are going, while the Yankees have seen several crucial bounce back seasons from players like Carlos Rodón, Giancarlo Stanton and Nestor Cortes.

The Orioles look poised to approach 100 wins again this season and put last year’s ALDS sweep at the hands of the Rangers behind them. With an enviable group of position players like MVP candidate Gunnar Henderson, and a playoff rotation of Corbin Burnes, Kyle Bradish and Grayson Rodriguez, the Orioles have all the talent to make a deep playoff run.

No team in the AL West is playing particularly well so far, as evidenced by the Mariners leading the division with a 30-26 record. The only team above .500 in the division, the Mariners have once again relied on a superb pitching staff (3.63 ERA) to help an offense that has scored fewer runs (209) than any team outside of the White Sox, Marlins and Cardinals.

Is there a bigger surprise team than the Royals? Just 3 1/2 games back of the Guardians, the Royals are in clear playoff contention and are making a drastic single-year improvement (56 wins last year) like the D-backs in 2023. Bobby Witt Jr. is firmly established as one of the game’s superstars, Salvador Perez is enjoying one of the best offensive seasons of his career and Royals pitchers are tied for the fifth-best ERA (3.39) in the Majors.

With the development of the Guardians and Royals, the Twins may have to aim for a Wild Card spot this season. After a dominant pitching performance in 2023, Twins pitchers have taken a step back due to the departure of Sonny Gray and Pablo López’s ERA jumping from 3.66 to 5.25 (even if his ERA indicators suggest that he’s still been quite good).

Division Series matchups

Royals (5) or Orioles (4) at Guardians (1)

Twins (6) or Mariners (3) at Yankees (2)

Cleveland is on pace for 109 wins, which would be the franchise’s second most in a season behind the 1954 squad that won 111 games. Given how competitive the AL Central is this season, it would be quite the feat to reach that mark, but the Guardians are in an excellent position to win the division.

The Yankees are also on pace for a whopping 107 wins, which would be the most wins since the dominant 1998 team won 114 games and was on their way to their first of three straight World Series titles. If they can grab the No. 1 seed, it’d be the first time the Yankees have done so since 2012.

National League

Byes: Phillies (1) and Dodgers (2)

Wild Card Series matchups

Padres (6) at Brewers (3)

Giants (5) at Braves (4)

Just missed: Cubs (1/2 game back of WC spot), Cardinals (1 1/2 games back)

After making it to the World Series in 2022 and NLCS in ‘23 as a Wild Card team, their path might be simplified this season. Owners of the top record in the Majors, Philadelphia has a five-game lead over a Braves team that has won the NL East every season since 2018. The Phillies are playing at a 110-win pace that would blow well past their franchise-best 102 wins in 2011, the last year they won the division.

The Dodgers still occupy the second spot in the NL despite not playing particularly well in recent weeks -- although they did win both games of a doubleheader against the Mets on Tuesday. Between Shohei Ohtani and Mookie Betts vying for the MVP and Dodgers pitchers boasting the fourth-best ERA (3.33) in the Majors, the club should be one of the most dangerous playoff teams this season.

Even with Craig Counsell leaving to manage the Cubs and trading ace Corbin Burnes, the Brewers seemingly haven’t missed a beat. William Contreras has emerged as one of the best players in baseball (159 wRC+) and has helped the Brewers score 266 runs, tied with the Orioles for the sixth-most in the Majors.

The Braves have been dealt a tough blow with season-ending injuries to their top hitter Ronald Acuña Jr. and best pitcher Spencer Strider. Even under their circumstances, the Braves have a strong enough roster to withstand it and make a strong playoff push. Similar to when the Braves won the 2021 World Series after Acuña’s season-ending ACL surgery, Atlanta will try to emulate that plan this year.

The final two spots are currently a battle between the Padres, Giants and Cubs, who are all within a game of each other. After a sluggish start, the Giants have played much better with a 15-11 record in May. Ditto for the Padres, who are 15-10 this month and traded for Luis Arraez shortly after our last playoff update. It’s been the inverse for the Cubs, who have gone 10-15 in the month of May after starting the season 18-12.

There's likely to be plenty of shuffling for those last two spots, though. After the Cubs, there are four teams within three games of the final Wild Card spot, including last year's NL champion D-backs. Even the Reds (4 1/2 games back) and Mets (six games back) are within striking distance of a playoff spot.

Division Series matchups

Giants (5) or Braves (4) at Phillies (1)

Padres (6) or Brewers (3) at Dodgers (2)

Not since the days of Chase Utley, Cole Hamels and Jimmy Rollins have the Phillies led the Senior Circuit in wins. Given how dominant the Phils have been on offense (293 runs scored to lead the Majors) and on the mound (3.11 ERA is the second-lowest), it’s easy to envision them finishing as the NL’s top team.

That the Dodgers occupy one of the top spots in the National League is not surprising. To grab the top spot, however, the Dodgers will have to make up the 3 1/2 games that separate them and the Phillies. What looks likely is the Dodgers winning 90-plus games for the 11th straight season (not including the COVID-shortened 2020 season) and possibly 100 games for the fourth straight year.

Who’s out from last year?

Astros, Blue Jays, D-backs, Marlins, Rangers, Rays

Both World Series teams from last year (Rangers and D-backs) and three of the teams to make it to the Championship Series (Astros out, Phillies in) are currently on the outside looking in. Things could change, but as of right now, the playoff picture looks very different.

Who’s new this year?

Guardians, Giants, Mariners, Padres, Royals, Yankees

The top two teams in the American League (Guardians and Yankees) both missed out on the postseason last year, but each won their respective divisions in 2022. The Mariners and Royals have also entered the fray, with Kansas City threatening to have their first playoff appearance since they won the World Series in 2015.