Which of these struggling contenders should be most worried?

Much has been made of how it looks like MLB will not have a 100-win team for the first time (in a full season) since 2014. There are many reasons for that, but here’s the primary one: None of the teams that were great over the first half of the schedule have been very good in the second half.

Five teams won at least 50 of their first 81 games: The Phillies, Yankees, Guardians, Orioles and Dodgers. Things have been much tougher for each since then, whether due to slumps, injuries or bad luck. Three of the five have losing records since Game No. 82; none has come close to approaching its first-half winning percentage. (You know who is over .500 over that span, though? The 34-30 A’s.)

Those five clubs – plus two other struggling clubs in the thick of the playoff chase – are not exactly cruising toward October at their peaks. But how worried should they be, deep down? Here’s a look at each of those seven teams, ranked from the highest concern level to the lowest.

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1. Guardians
First 81 games: 52-29 | Since: 32-33

First off, despite how it looked maybe a couple of weeks ago, the Guardians are probably going to hold onto the AL Central title. As of Wednesday, FanGraphs had them at roughly 85% to win the division and 99.9% to make the playoffs. So don’t sweat that part. But you can understand why Guardians fans have been white-knuckling it. The offense that carried them for the first half has gone into a slumber; they just went 0-for-20 with runners in scoring position in a series loss at Dodger Stadium over the weekend. Remember when we were all hyping up Steven Kwan as an AL MVP candidate? He was hitting .352 at the All-Star break but is at .198 since. That alone has been enough to drop the Guardians’ offense, despite José Ramírez’s best efforts to keep it afloat. (And even he is hitting .220 with a .621 OPS in September.) The scary part now is that this isn’t a vintage Cleveland rotation, either. The Guardians are comfortably making it to the postseason. But it sure looks like a team in trouble once it gets there, despite its superb bullpen.

2. Braves
First 81 games: 46-35 | Since: 33-32

It’s incredibly impressive that the Braves have stayed above .500 in the second half, considering their superstars keep dropping like flies. Who in the world imagined a scenario where the most reliable, season-salvaging rock of consistency and health this year would be Chris Sale? But you just can’t lose Ronald Acuña Jr. and Austin Riley and Ozzie Albies and Spencer Strider and not expect serious repercussions. So it’s not surprising that a team originally considered the NL East favorite is now fighting with the Mets for the third NL Wild Card spot. Even if the Braves slip in, though, it’s not 2021 anymore. It has been a valiant effort. But it just doesn’t look like their year.

3. Twins
First 81 games: 45-36 | Since: 33-32

It’s never a good sign when your manager is having a closed-door meeting three weeks before the playoffs start. “That was an unprofessional series of baseball that we just played,” Rocco Baldelli said earlier this week. “I’m not commenting on anything else. I don’t think anything else really has to be said.” So that’s not great. The major issue with the Twins, as always, is injuries to their lineup: Their big three of Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton and Royce Lewis have started together exactly 17 games this year. Buxton is still having hip discomfort during his rehab assignment; Correa hasn’t even started one yet, and even if he does return, they’re talking about taking him off shortstop. Their pitching may be enough to keep them afloat, but without those three in the lineup together, how high could their postseason ceiling possibly be? I think there’s a real gap between these first three teams and the next four, by the way.

4. Orioles
First 81 games: 51-30 | Since: 32-34

Here’s something nobody expected anyone to say about the Orioles: We’re all worried about the hitting. Gunnar Henderson is still launching the ball, and Anthony Santander is hitting plenty of homers, but, seriously, what has happened to Adley Rutschman? He’s hitting .204 since the All-Star break and only has one homer in his last 42 games. Are we sure he’s not hurt? Add to that Jackson Holliday going through another tough stretch, and that once-vaunted Orioles lineup looks a lot thinner. It has been their rotation keeping them in games lately, with Corbin Burnes still a Cy Young contender and Zach Eflin being a massive acquisition at the Trade Deadline. But is that really what they’re counting on here? Rutschman and Holliday are supremely talented, but they need to start hitting, and soon. Orioles fans have been freaking out for a couple of months now. You can see why.

5. Yankees
First 81 games: 52-29 | Since: 32-33

The Yankees were probably a little bit over their skis in the first half, riding Juan Soto and (especially) Aaron Judge and some surprising pitching (Luis Gil!) to the best record in baseball. They have the same problems now that we all thought they would have heading into the year: Little lineup depth, a shaky bullpen and a rotation that’s a little top-heavy. Of those problems, the biggest worry for October is the bullpen, especially the wobbly Clay Holmes. The good news is that Gerrit Cole is healthy, as is Gil; Jazz Chisholm Jr. is here now; Judge will surely break out of his mini-slump by the time the postseason gets here. Can a team ride Soto, Judge and Cole all the way to the World Series? That’s what we wondered in the preseason. It’s what we’re still wondering now.

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6. Dodgers
First 81 games: 50-31 | Since 37-28

All right, so that’s not all that bad of a second-half record, which is the sort of thing that happens when you have Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman on your team. But they’ve needed them. The rest of that lineup hasn’t been all that fantastic, but the real issue is, of course, all those pitching injuries. Seriously, who is going to be in the rotation for this team in the playoffs? Your Game 1 starter is Jack Flaherty. But after that? Who knows. At least Yoshinobu Yamamoto looked fantastic in his return from the IL on Tuesday, but there are still a whole lot of questions surrounding the health and effectiveness of the rest of this group. The Dodgers are still stacked -- they’re the Dodgers. But it’s remarkable, after all their offseason moves, that their rotation heading into October is as big a worry, if not more of one, as it was heading into last October … when it got absolutely shelled, knocking them out of the postseason immediately.

7. Phillies
First 81 games: 53-28 | Since: 35-30

The Phillies rotation, thanks in large part to surprising seasons from Ranger Suárez and Cristopher Sánchez, was the best in baseball in the first half, but it hasn’t been anything close to that since. Zack Wheeler is still a Cy Young contender and a bona fide No. 1, but the other guys haven’t quite held up. Bryce Harper has also hit a second-half skid -- he was once a legit MVP candidate, remember -- though Kyle Schwarber has picked up him and the rest of the team. All told, though: I’m not sure how much you can worry about the Phillies here. This is a veteran team that has essentially known it’s winning the NL East for months. They know how much is on the line for them this October: They’re not getting any younger, after all. This team will round into shape -- if it hasn’t already.