Hoskins could be a sneaky good pickup in free agency. Here's why

Always look on the bright side. It's a good motto anytime, but especially in sports. Take, for instance, the best-case scenarios for how a player will return from an injury. That’s what we’re here to explain.

Rhys Hoskins got off to a fast start when he debuted in August of 2017, crushing 11 home runs in his first 18 career games. In the round numbers department, he set a record for fewest games to 10 homers, with 17, later surpassed by Aristides Aquino in 2018-19.

Hoskins cemented himself as a reliable power threat in the Phillies’ lineup, hitting at least 27 homers in each season from 2018-22, aside from the shortened 2020 season. He hit six dingers in the ‘22 postseason, including four in the NLCS.

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Then, in Spring Training, Hoskins tore his left ACL while fielding a grounder. The first baseman missed the entire 2023 season and is now a free agent. Hoskins’ power potential when healthy is undeniable, but returning from injuries is never a certainty.

What are some prior instances of best-case first-season returns? We took a look at every season by a hitter since 1995, then narrowed down to just ones where the player appeared in 25 or fewer games the year prior (excluding 2020) – essentially "lost" seasons, like Hoskins’ ‘23. We then compiled the best results, by FanGraphs’ WAR and wRC+ (min. 400 PA), for players whose prior seasons were specifically shortened by injuries. We also accounted for age and where the player was in his career.

In other words, we took a look at the best seasons in recent memory by hitters who missed most or all of the previous year due to injury, focusing on players whose situations are most worth considering alongside Hoskins’ – a slugging first baseman who will be 31 this season.

Here are five of those best returns from seasons lost to injury, in reverse chronological order.

2011 Jacoby Ellsbury, Red Sox

Ellsbury wasn’t in the 30-plus-year-old category, but his return season is still worth noting given his prodigious production. After stealing 70 bases and hitting .301 in 2009, he played in only 18 games throughout 2010, dealing with fractured ribs and lingering effects from that injury. His return in ‘11 was one for the ages: 32 homers, a .321 batting average and .552 slugging percentage in 732 plate appearances. Ellsbury, who turned 28 that September, finished second for AL MVP and won AL Comeback Player of the Year. His 9.5 WAR was almost twice as high as any other position player in the expansion era (1961) who was limited to 25 or fewer games the year prior due to injuries. His 150 wRC+ was second among that same group, with at least 400 plate appearances in that return season.

2005 Richie Sexson, Mariners

On the heels of an All-Star season in 2003 with the Brewers, Sexson was traded to the D-backs in December. He ended up playing just 23 games for Arizona in ‘04, none after May 22, due to a left shoulder injury. Sexson signed a four-year, $50 million contract with Seattle entering the 2005 season, when he would be 30 years old. In that return year, he played 156 games, hit 39 homers with 121 RBIs, slugged .541 and received MVP votes. His 4.0 WAR and 144 wRC+ were both career bests. The wRC+ was tied for the fourth-highest by any player in the expansion era who was limited to 25 or fewer games the year prior due to injuries (min. 400 PA). His WAR was the fifth highest by a position player under the same games-missed umbrella since ‘61.

2002 Nomar Garciaparra, Red Sox

Another player on this list who had not yet turned 30 by his return season but merits inclusion, Garciaparra had won back-to-back AL batting titles in 1999 and 2000, hitting .372 in the latter. But he played just 21 games in 2001 with a wrist injury delaying his season debut until July 29, then ending it by Aug. 26. He played 156 games upon his return in ‘02, leading the Majors with 56 doubles while hitting .310. Garciaparra made his fourth All-Star team and received MVP votes. His 4.8 WAR was second-highest since ‘61 by a position player limited to 25 or fewer games the year prior due to injuries, behind only Ellsbury.

2000 Moisés Alou, Astros

After an All-Star season in 1998, Alou tore his left ACL in the offseason, missing all of ‘99. He was back and in some ways better than ever in 2000, turning 34 in July of that year. In 126 games, his .355 batting average, .416 on-base percentage and .623 slugging percentage were all career highs. His 154 wRC+ was second to only his 1998 season (158). It was also the highest by any player since ‘61 who was limited to 25 or fewer games the year prior due to injuries (min. 400 PA).

1995 Ron Gant, Reds

Gant finished fifth in NL MVP voting in 1993, hitting 36 home runs and driving in 117. Then he broke his right leg prior to the 1994 season and did not play the entire year, with the Braves releasing him heading into free agency. He signed with the Reds for ‘95 as a 30-year-old and hit 29 homers in 119 games. His .940 OPS and 144 wRC+ were both career highs, with the wRC+ tied for the fourth highest by any player since ‘61 who was limited to 25 or fewer games the year prior due to injuries (min. 400 PA). He was an All-Star for the second time and received MVP votes again.