Sluggers who could make a run at 500 homers

MLB Network, launched on Jan. 1, 2009, is celebrating its 15th anniversary in 2024. Through Jan. 19, MLB Network will count down the top 15 moments it has covered in its history, via weeknight segments on MLB Tonight (6 p.m. ET), as well as across its social platforms. And don’t forget to catch MLB Network’s 15th Anniversary retrospective show – “MLB Network Legendary Moments” presented by Budweiser, with Greg Amsinger, Sean Casey and Harold Reynolds -- scheduled for 7 p.m. ET on Monday, Jan. 22.

The No. 5 moment on the countdown: Albert Pujols hitting his historic 700th home run near the end of the 2022 season.

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The list of legends in the 700 Home Run Club is a short one, with Albert Pujols becoming only its fourth member on Sept. 23, 2022, before finishing his storied career at 703.

Seven hundred is such an enormous milestone that it feels absurd to try to predict that any active player will reach it. The 500 Home Run Club, though? That's a different story. It's still a lofty target, to be sure. But with 28 members, it's less far-fetched.

Therefore, we couldn't help but wonder: Which players -- be they young stars, sluggers in the prime of their careers or veterans in the twilight of theirs -- have a legitimate chance to reach the 500-homer mark before it's all said and done?

Here's a look at 13 active stars who could someday join this exclusive club. (We limited our field to players with at least 50 career homers.) For each, reporter Manny Randhawa provides a breakdown of why that player is a candidate, before analyst Mike Petriello offers his prediction.

Venerable veterans

Giancarlo Stanton
Age: 34
Career HR: 402
Career AB/HR: 14.0 (39 HR per 550 AB)

Had it not been for injuries, Stanton likely would already have more than 500 career home runs. He still has a great chance to get there, though. He’s never had a season in which he hit fewer than 34 homers if he played in at least 123 games, and heading into his age-34 campaign, he could join the 500-homer club within three seasons if he stays relatively healthy. Given his injury history, of course, that’s certainly no guarantee.

Petriello’s prediction: Yes. Stanton’s 2023 was, to put it lightly, brutal, with a .191 average and a mere .695 OPS. There’s a not-small subset of Yankee fans who would be pleased if the team would simply find a way to move on from Stanton, despite the four years remaining on his contract. We start on that tremendous downer of a note because of this: He still hit 24 homers. Even in a year where nothing else went right, the dingers were still there. He needs 98 more homers to get to 500, and 98 divided by four is … 24.5 homers a season, and 24 is a number he’s matched or topped 11 times. It might not look pretty, but he’s going to get there.

Mike Trout
Age: 32
Career HR: 368
Career AB/HR: 14.7 (37 HR per 550 AB)

For a time, it seemed Trout would be a lock to reach 500 home runs. But since 2016, he hasn’t played in more than 140 games in a season due to various injuries. Nevertheless, with the rate at which he hits homers -- he managed to launch 40 despite playing in only 119 games in 2022 -- and the fact that he’s just 32 years old, the three-time AL MVP still has a clear path to 500.

Petriello’s prediction: Yes. The thing about being The Best Player Ever, as Trout has so often been described over his career, is that even when your peak years seem to be over, you can still be pretty good. Trout hit 40 homers in 2022 in just 119 games, even better than his 40-homers-per-162 career average. It’s worth worrying that his .490 slugging percentage in 2023 was a career-low; it’s also worth noting that “slugging .490” is a good year for most mortals. While the injuries have indeed been piling up, even one more full season would knock off a third of the 132 remaining, and he’ll play most of this year at age 32. It’ll be closer than you’d have expected three or five or seven years ago, but he’ll see 500.

Manny Machado
Age: 31
Career HR: 313
Career AB/HR: 19.9 (28 HR per 550 AB)

Time is on Machado’s side. Since he made his MLB debut about a month after turning 20 years old in 2012, he’s been one of the game’s best third basemen. The power didn’t really emerge until his fourth Major League season, when he belted 35 home runs. But he was still just 23, and he’s been remarkably consistent in the power department since then -- he’s hit at least 30 homers in six of his last seven full seasons (excluding the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign).

Petriello’s prediction: No. Would you believe that since 2015, no one aside from Nolan Arenado (who, of course, spent time at Coors) has hit more homers than Machado? That speaks not only to his durability but his consistency, even though he doesn’t “feel” like an elite-top end power hitter. And he’s not, really – he’s never hit 40 homers in a season. Instead, he’s hit 28 homers or more eight different times, and certainly would have as well in a full 2020. But without that one huge year to really take out a big chunk at once, he still finds himself 187 homers away from the big five hundo. If he had seven more seasons of 25 homers, he’d still be a baker’s dozen short, and that feels like a tall ask; we’ll be interested to see how offseason elbow surgery affects him. It might be that we look back at the shortened 2020 and find that’s what cost him 500. It won’t, however, cost him a place in Cooperstown, given his elite power/defense combo on the left side.

Bryce Harper
Age: 31
Career HR: 306
Career AB/HR: 17.6 (31 HR per 550 AB)

Injuries have become an issue in recent years for Harper, but like Machado, he’s still got plenty of time to make a run at 500 homers. He’s three-fifths of the way there, and he just turned 31. In every season he’s played in more than 150 games, Harper has hit at least 34 home runs. Health, as with all the hitters on this list, will be the key -- he hasn’t played in at least 150 games in a season since 2019.

Petriello’s prediction: Yes. Harper is only four months younger than Machado, and he has seven fewer homers, so we’ll absolutely admit the seeming hypocrisy that comes with saying “Machado no and Harper yes,” though we’ll do our best to back it up. Harper is a purer power hitter than Machado, as you can see in the AB/HR difference, and he’s going to (likely) spend the rest of his career playing in one of the friendliest home run parks for lefties. All the time Harper missed while recovering from Tommy John surgery hurts him here, though it’s worth noting that after a slow start during his hurried return last season, he absolutely mashed in the second half – a .996 OPS with 18 homers. A fully healthy Harper in his age-31 season in 2023 should pile up the taters on his way to 500.

Aaron Judge
Age: 31
Career HR: 257
Career AB/HR: 11.7 (47 HR per 550 AB)

Judge’s relatively late start (he was 25 during his first full Major League season in 2017) and injuries have put him in a tough spot for the pursuit of 500 home runs. But given the sheer frequency with which he launches homers, you can’t put the milestone past him. If Judge continues homering at the same rate without missing too much time, he could approach the 400-homer mark during his age-34 season.

Petriello’s prediction: Yes. Judge’s power feats hardly need explanation; he’s not just one of today’s best power hitters, he’s one of the greatest power bats in the sport’s history. As stated, the issue here is time, because he turns 32 in April and he’s just over halfway to this mark. So: Is there enough time? Back through history, 80 players had hit between 220 and 270 homers through their age 31 season, as Judge has. Only two, David Ortiz and Rafael Palmeiro, made it to 500. A more favorable way to look at it, perhaps, is that 16 hitters have had at least 243 homers from age 32 on, and there are some legends in there; maybe it makes more sense to look at Judge as less of a “late bloomer” than as “a power deity short-changed by injuries and a pandemic.” Given the truly elite power bat, we think he’ll get there, but it’ll be close.

Pete Alonso
Age: 29
Career HR: 192
Career AB/HR: 13.2 (42 HR per 550 AB)

The regularity with which the Polar Bear belts homers, coupled with his durability -- he’s only missed 24 games over his five-year career thus far -- give him an outside shot at 500. Scheduled to become a free agent after next season, it’ll be interesting to see whether Alonso stays with the Mets or goes elsewhere. Citi Field isn’t the friendliest of parks for sluggers, so if he departs for a more favorable home, he could have a better chance.

Petriello’s prediction: No. Alonso has played four full seasons, and he’s hit at least 37 home runs in each of them. That’s a tremendous rate, good enough that he leads the Majors in homers since his 2019 debut. But the primary issue here is that he turned 29 last month, and he’s not even to 200 yet (though he would have been if not for the shortened 2020). That leaves him 308 homers away, which is just so many homers – it’s more than 30 homers a year for the next decade, or to put it another way, even if he hit 37 homers eight more times, he’d still be a handful of dingers short. There’s a version of this where he ends up a DH hitting 20 homers a season into his forties, and that version ends up north of 500 homers. The odds, however, seem against it.

Young stars

Rafael Devers
Age: 27
Career HR: 172
Career AB/HR: 19.1 (29 HR per 550 AB)

Devers may be the player on this list who is least likely to be viewed as a potential 500-homer guy. But considering a healthy Devers may very well cross the 200-homer threshold next season, at the end of which he’ll still be 27 years old, it’s hard to rule it out. We’ve seen some great individual seasons from Devers so far, but we may not have seen his best yet.

Petriello’s prediction: No. There are 28 500-homer hitters in history. We’re worried that we’re about to suggest there are 10 more playing right now, which seems unlikely, so while that’s maybe unfair to Devers, Manny’s assertion of “least likely to be viewed as a potential 500-homer guy” is probably correct. Devers is 35 homers short of Machado at the same age, and he’s got 328 home runs to go. Youth is on his side, but with only three 30-homer seasons so far, 500 is very, very, far away.

Ronald Acuña Jr.
Age: 26
Career HR: 161
Career AB/HR: 16.3 (34 HR per 550 AB)

On the heels of a historic season in which he inaugurated the 40-homer/70-steal club, Acuña is not only on track to make a run at 500 career home runs, but he also presents the tantalizing possibility of joining Barry Bonds as the only players in AL/NL history to hit 500 homers and steal 500 bases in a career (he’s got 180 career steals already). By the end of next season, he could be in the 200-200 club. Who knows how much more power-speed history he’ll make?

Petriello’s prediction: Yes. Acuña has already topped 40 twice, was on pace to also do it in 2021 before he injured his knee and only 20 hitters have ever hit more homers through age-25. (And remember: the pandemic and injury probably robbed him of another 40 or so.) He’ll probably get to 200 through 26, a level that only the greats reach. Our big question was whether the knee injury would hinder him, concerns that didn’t go away after a good-not-great 2022. After 2023, those concerns are absolutely gone. Imagine saying there’s anything he can’t do right now?

Yordan Alvarez
Age: 26
Career HR: 129
Career AB/HR: 13.5 (41 HR per 550 AB)

He’ll be 27 in June and he hasn’t yet hit 150 homers in the Majors, due in large part to injury. But from Day 1, Alvarez has been elite at the plate. So far, he owns a career .588 slugging percentage and we have yet to see what kind of raw numbers he could put up over a full season. When we do, he could shoot up the active home run list pretty quickly.

Petriello’s prediction: Yes. Alvarez is most commonly compared to David Ortiz, and Ortiz had only 58 home runs through age 26, so Alvarez is well ahead of that pace. That doesn’t guarantee anything for him, obviously, but he’s also younger than you think; he’s just eight months older than Josh Jung, who was one of 2023’s best rookies. While the minor injuries are a concern for someone that young, he’s also averaged 551 plate appearances over the last three seasons, and so far, he’s on a 43-homers-per-162-game pace, and he’s essentially been a top-five hitter in the sport since the day he debuted. It’s not that hard to see him halfway there by his 30th birthday.

Juan Soto
Age: 25
Career HR: 160
Career AB/HR: 16.9 (33 HR per 550 AB)

While his peerless eye at the plate might give rise to the concern that Soto’s home run total will be suppressed, he’s demonstrated so far in his young career that he has the ability to be a prolific power hitter. He led the Majors, per usual, with 132 walks last year, but he also smashed a career-high 35 homers in his age-24 campaign. Soto hasn’t even hit his prime yet, and by this time next year, he could be at 200-plus homers with potentially a dozen or more seasons ahead of him.

Petriello’s prediction: Yes. Take everything we said about Acuña, minus the knee injury, and repeat it here. (Soto is even a little younger.) For years, we’ve been talking about how Soto is on track to be one of the all-time greats, and not much has changed to make us think otherwise. While the impact of the short porch in the Bronx likely won't help as much as everyone thinks in 2024 (and, perhaps, beyond), it certainly won’t hurt, either.

Fernando Tatis Jr.
Age: 25
Career HR: 106
Career AB/HR: 15.2 (36 HR per 550 AB)

Missing the entire 2022 season didn’t help his cause, but Tatis nevertheless has more than 100 home runs to his name and he just turned 25 on Jan. 2. While we wondered how he would fare in his move from shortstop to right field, he handled his new position with aplomb. It was at the plate that he wasn’t the Tatis who posted a .596 slugging percentage from 2019-21 -- he hit 25 homers and slugged .449 in ’23. Still, if he recaptures the power he had earlier in his career, he’s young enough to make a run at 500 homers.

Petriello’s prediction: Check back next year. This is a cop-out answer, we know. We’d been lumping Tatis in with Soto and Acuña Jr. as a potentially all-time great young trio at the same time, but Tatis’ path has taken a turn with time missed due to injury and suspension. His return in 2023, at least at the plate, was more good than excellent. That’s not surprising, given how long he’d been off the field, but the fact at the moment is that he’s more than 50 homers shy of his two similarly aged outfield legends in the making. Manny correctly notes that he’s young enough and talented enough to get back on track, and it’s not at all hard to see 500 happening. He’s just got more ground to make up than the other two.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Age: 24
Career HR: 130
Career AB/HR: 19.5 (28 HR per 550 AB)

Guerrero had a “down” year at the plate in 2023, seeing his OPS dip below .800 with 26 homers for the Blue Jays. He’s also trending in the wrong direction if we’re talking home run milestones -- since his MVP-caliber ’21, when he hit 48, he’s steadily declined in that department. He hit 32 in ’22 before his 26 last year. But he’s still only 24, and it’s hard to imagine there aren’t some 35-45-homer seasons in his future. Time is an ally for Vladdy, but he’ll need to recapture the power of ’21.

Petriello’s prediction: No, if we can drag out that last syllable for a few hours and end it with a question mark, so it’s more like a noooooo? with shrug emojis on either side that express the uncertainty here. Having 130 homers through age 24 is extremely good, to the point that only legends (and also Hal Trosky and Bob Horner) have done that. He still hits the ball as hard and as well as anyone. This is not a profile you should be betting against. And yet: Outside of an incredibly great 2021, the production hasn’t quite been there. Guerrero has played in parts of five seasons, so far, and in four of them he’s slugged under .500. Until he proves otherwise, the massive 48-homer, .601-SLG 2021 stands out as an outlier, and his 2023 was more confusing than compelling. It goes without saying the talent is there, and the youth is there. The start is there, too. What’s missing, right now, is the confidence.

Precocious power

Julio Rodríguez
Age: 23
Career HR: 60
Career AB/HR: 19.4 (28 HR per 550 AB)

When we reach a section with the word “precocious” in the subheading, there’s always a caveat: Anything can happen in the future for a 23-year-old superstar. That being said, you can’t ask for a much better start than J-Rod’s, and that’s despite slumping for a good part of last season. We may not have seen Rodríguez fully tap into his power yet. During the second half of last season, he homered every 15.2 at-bats, which is the equivalent of 36 homers over 550 at-bats.

Petriello’s prediction: Not yet. Betting against Rodríguez is likely a bad idea. This is one we’ll look back on and regret, probably, because the talent is unquestioned. But he’s still so young, and this is all so far away. Having 60 homers through 22 is a great start, but Ruben Sierra, Justin Upton, and Cody Bellinger also did that, and none did or will come anywhere near 500. We’ll need another big year or two before we can start talking the five-hundo with Rodríguez.