Can these 7 stars keep up with their ‘on-pace’ stats?

Seventy-seven steals? Fifty-six home runs? A 22-game winner on the mound? After the first half of the 2024 season, which actually featured considerably more than half of the 162-game schedule, plenty of MLB stars are on pace to post tantalizing counting stats over the full year.

But how likely are those players to keep it up?

Here are the seven most exciting on-pace stats from the first half, ranked by how likely they are to be achieved. All projections come from FanGraphs.

1. Elly De La Cruz, Reds
On pace for: 77 stolen bases

The Cincinnati speedster has a chance to become the first player to steal 75 or more bases since José Reyes swiped 78 for the Mets back in 2007. Ronald Acuña Jr. came close with 73 steals in his historic 2023 NL MVP season, but De La Cruz’s pace is even higher after 46 steals in 96 games before the All-Star break. The rule changes introduced before the 2023 season, including bigger bases and disengagement limits, have certainly helped, but De La Cruz is on his way to a rare season in terms of steals. He’s been caught nine times in 55 attempts so far, so if he continues to get on base and attempt steals without getting caught significantly more, 75 (or more) steals is definitely in play.

2. Aaron Judge, Yankees
On pace for: 56 home runs

It’s far from easy to hit 56 home runs in a season, but it’s a testament to Judge’s production that he seems a fairly safe bet to do so. The Yankees slugger set the American League single-season home run record with 62 in 2022 and hit 37 homers in 106 games last season. At the All-Star break, Judge had 34 homers in 96 games. Only two players have hit 55 or more homers since Ryan Howard smashed 58 for the Phillies in 2006 -- Judge in 2022 and Giancarlo Stanton (59) in 2017. Judge has been historically hot after a poor first month of the season and has a real shot at hitting 56 homers -- if not more.

3. Gunnar Henderson, Orioles
On pace for: 132 runs

Typically at the top of a stacked Orioles lineup, Henderson has been scoring with ease all season long. He’s already scored an MLB-high 78 runs, with 28 of those coming on the shortstop’s own home runs. He could be the fourth player in the past three seasons to top 130 runs, joining Acuña (149) and Freddie Freeman (131) in 2023 and Judge (133) in 2022. Henderson is on pace for 132 runs, which would be the most by an Oriole since Roberto Alomar hit that exact mark back in 1996. With the young shortstop’s talent and the skilled hitters behind him, it seems eminently reasonable.

4. Ryan Helsley, Cardinals
On pace for: 54 saves

No pitcher has saved more than 50 games since Edwin Díaz recorded 57 saves (tied for second most in AL/NL history) back in 2018 with the Mariners. Helsley has an excellent shot to change that, having saved 32 of the Cardinals’ 50 wins prior to the All-Star break. The hard-throwing righty reliever has a 2.36 ERA and 48 strikeouts in his 42 innings pitched in 2024. Workload could be a concern: Helsley has never thrown more than 64 2/3 innings in a single season, and he will likely have to surpass that mark to hit his on-pace projection of 54 saves. If so, he would be just one off the National League record of 55, shared by John Smoltz (2002) and Eric Gagne (2003).

5. José Ramírez, Guardians
On pace for: 131 RBIs

The RBI mark for which Ramírez is currently on pace isn’t anything uncommon: Judge and Pete Alonso each drove in exactly 131 runs in 2022, and Matt Olson had 139 RBIs last year. Ramírez drove in a career-high 126 runs in 2022, and his 77 RBIs this season put him on pace for 131 (tied with Marcell Ozuna for second, behind Judge at 141). Batting third (sometimes second) behind MLB batting average leader Steven Kwan has certainly helped the Guardians star drive in runs, and J-Ram is also on pace for a career-high-tying 39 home runs. Ramírez has a strong chance to be the first Cleveland hitter with 130 or more RBIs since Juan Gonzalez had 140 in 2001.

6. Garrett Crochet, White Sox
On pace for: 248 strikeouts

Crochet led MLB with 150 strikeouts in the season’s first half, reaching that mark in just 107 1/3 innings. Innings will probably be the biggest challenge for Crochet -- who had never started an MLB game before Opening Day 2024 -- in reaching his on-pace projection of 248 strikeouts. Spencer Strider (281 strikeouts) in 2023 and Gerrit Cole (257) in 2022 both beat that number, as did Robbie Ray in 2021 and six different pitchers in 2019. Strider, Cole and Ray have all been significantly affected by injuries this season, as have many other high-strikeout starters, so Crochet could be the only pitcher to reach 250 K’s this season.

7. Chris Sale, Braves
On pace for: 22 wins

With relievers pitching more innings than ever, wins have gone out of fashion in recent years. There has only been one 20-game winner in each of the past three seasons, and the last pitcher to win 22 games -- Sale’s current pace -- was Rick Porcello with the Red Sox in 2016. Sale has an MLB-best 13 wins in his first 20 starts this season, but he’s already thrown more innings in 2024 than he has in any season since 2019. Even if his health holds up, the Braves lefty likely won’t continue to receive an average of 6.3 runs of support per game -- the most among all qualified pitchers.