Who will win ROY? Here are latest Power Rankings

Welcome to the fifth and final regular-season edition of the 2022 Rookie Power Rankings. Once per month, the prospect experts at MLB Pipeline vote on who we believe to be the likeliest Rookie of the Year winners at year’s end.

Please be sure not to miss that “at year’s end” part. We’re not voting on who would win today, or who’s hot right now (see: the rookie hot list, set to run again next week). Instead, we weigh players’ performance to date along with expectations for the rest of the year, adding up to a judgment call from our prospect experts. And there are still four weeks left in the season.

Now, obviously, this late in the year, we weigh the numbers that are already on the board much more heavily. But this is still, to some degree, a projection. Anyway, on with the results. (All stats are through Monday.)

1. Julio Rodríguez, OF, Mariners (previous rank: 1)
Who else? Adley Rutschman is coming on strong, and there’s at least a case for him now (he barely trails Rodríguez in Fangraphs’ WAR calculation), but we’re figuring that Rodríguez’s 31 extra games played will make the difference. He leads all rookies in homers (23) and ranks second in steals (24), and he leads qualified American League rookies in slugging (.478), all while manning center field for what appears to be a playoff-bound team. This isn’t a done deal yet, but he’s definitely the favorite.

2. Michael Harris II, OF, Braves (previous rank: 5)
Our “balloting” is closer in the National League than the AL, with Harris holding a slight lead over his teammate Spencer Strider. Harris was known for his glove in the Minors but there were questions about the readiness of his bat; since arriving in Atlanta, they’ve both been brilliant. He leads qualified NL rookies in slugging (.538) and is second in on-base percentage (.352), while also providing significant value on the basepaths and in center field. He has been a huge part of the Braves’ surge in the NL East.

3. Spencer Strider, RHP, Braves (previous rank: 4)
Speaking of key contributors as the Braves climb the standings, Strider turned in a historic game last week and has been absolutely brilliant since the All-Star break. During that span, Strider has 60 strikeouts, eight walks and a 2.01 ERA in 40 1/3 innings, and the Braves have gone 6-1 when he takes the mound. He’s also one of the true must-watch pitchers in the sport right now and that never hurts when it comes to award voting.

4. Adley Rutschman, C, Orioles (previous rank: 6)
The only thing standing between Rutschman and Rodríguez right now is playing time, and of course that’s no fault of Rutschman’s (nor of the Orioles -- he was hurt in Spring Training, when he probably would have made the club). Rutschman is simply doing everything: hitting for power, getting on base and playing outstanding defense, even adding three stolen three bases. Much like Rodríguez, it won’t be shocking at all if Rutschman receives some MVP votes as well as Rookie of the Year consideration.

5. Bobby Witt Jr., SS, Royals (previous rank: 2)
Witt has tailed off a bit in recent weeks (.228/.265/.417 since the start of August), but he’s still having a fine year and still definitely deserving of plenty of votes. He’s also proven to be a fine baserunner, though the numbers don’t love his defense at shortstop. He’s also not helped by the Royals being a non-factor in the pennant race. Still, he’s had an excellent year and the kind of campaign that in a lot of seasons would have him leading the rookie race.

6. George Kirby, RHP, Mariners (previously unranked)
If there’s a theme to this month’s rankings, it’s surging players on surging teams, of which Kirby is a great example. He’s been brilliant since a very brief July stint at Triple-A, as Seattle has roared toward the top of the AL Wild Card race. Over his last eight starts, Kirby has a 2.18 ERA, 47 strikeouts and five walks in 41 1/3 innings. The Mariners are 6-2 in those games.

7. Félix Bautista, RHP, Orioles (previously unranked)
Yep, it’s another young player doing big-time work for a contender. Bautista has been stout all year, but he’s taken it to another level over the past two months. Since July 9, he’s pitched 25 2/3 innings in 23 games, with 37 whiffs, five free passes, eight hits and three runs allowed. He’s racked up nine saves in that time as the O’s have gone 30-20 to become a real threat in the Wild Card race.

8. Steven Kwan, OF, Guardians (previous rank: T10)
Kwan keeps getting on base, and as a result, he keeps hanging around in our rankings. He’s at .320/.382/.424 since the break, defying widespread expectations that his lack of power would ultimately prevent him from being an effective big league hitter. Kwan ranks second among all qualified rookies in OBP (.369), and he’s mixed in 12 steals and solid play in left field. He may not be a star, but he’s a contributor on a first-place team.

9 (tie). Jhoan Duran, RHP, Twins (previously unranked)
There may not be a more entertaining thrower of the ball in the sport than Duran, he of the 100-mph splitter. He does things with the ball that simply do not seem possible within the bounds of physics, all while also dominating AL hitters. Duran has been even more overwhelming in the second half than the first, fanning nearly 40 percent of hitters since the break (25 in 64 plate appearances). If he keeps it up, and if the Twins can overtake the Guardians in the AL Central with Duran pitching in big spots, he could fare even better in rookie voting.

9 (tie). Jeremy Peña, SS, Astros (previous rank: 3)
If there’s one ranking on this list that’s sure to make people mad, it’s this one. Peña ranks fifth among all rookies in FanGraphs WAR, thanks to his power and slick defense. His offensive numbers are similar to Witt’s, though slightly lower across the board. He’s having a fine year for a superb team, and he’s probably the one player on this list with the best chance to play his way up the standings over the final few weeks.