15 prospects we were wrong about

On Monday, in celebrating 20 years of prospect rankings here at MLB.com, we unveiled an All-Time Prospect Team. It is, more or less, our greatest hits.

But we’re the first to admit we haven’t batted 1.000 in our projections. We have always strived to give a thorough snapshot of industry opinion on the future of the game, but any seasoned evaluator will tell you that even they get guys wrong all the time. It might seem like that could be a source of frustration -- we do want to get it right, after all -- but we actually embrace the uncertainty of it all.

• MLB Pipeline | Top 100 prospects | Prospect video

To show just how much we love the inexactness of what we do, we went through 20 years of rankings to pull out the biggest prospect misses we’ve had. We know how hard it is just to get to the big leagues, even if you are a highly regarded prospect, so we’ve broken it down into two categories: the full-on “whiffs” -- guys who never made it to the big leagues -- and the “foul tips” -- top 10 prospects who accrued a career WAR (according to Baseball-Reference) of 5.0 or lower.

Whiffs

Greg Miller, LHP, Dodgers (No. 3 in 2004): On our very first Top 50, Miller was considered the top pitching prospect in the game, ranking ahead of Zack Greinke and Edwin Jackson. He was coming off a huge year in which he got to Double-A at age 18, but then he missed all of 2004 with two shoulder surgeries and never amassed 100 innings in a season again, with injuries and control issues derailing him. The Dodgers released him in 2009 and he never pitched in affiliated ball again.

Adam Miller, RHP, Cleveland (No. 10 in 2008): Miller had a big first full season of pro ball, missed time in 2005 with an elbow strain, bounced back with a huge year in 2006 and was still in the top 10 heading into 2008 since a finger injury wasn't thought to be a long-term concern. Unfortunately, it was and required several surgeries. Miller never got higher than Triple-A, pitching professionally for the last time in 2015.

Tyler Kolek, RHP, Marlins (No. 27 in 2015): The No. 2 overall pick in the 2014 Draft, Kolek generated a ton of buzz for his ability to hit triple digits as a high schooler. He jumped high on the midseason re-rank in 2014 and held his spot. Tommy John surgery knocked out his 2016 season and he managed to throw just a combined 33 innings from 2017 through 2019. He hasn’t pitched since that ’19 season, when he was still only 23 years old.

Bobby Brownlie, RHP, Cubs (No. 38 in 2004): Brownlie was a highly regarded college right-hander at Rutgers and the Cubs took him No. 21 overall in the 2002 Draft. He had a solid first season in 2003, landing in the Top 50. He followed it up with a strong showing in Double-A the following year, though he never missed a ton of bats. When things began going sideways at Triple-A in 2005, he started getting some relief work, but that didn’t right the ship. Brownlie landed in indy ball in 2007 before getting chances with Cleveland, Washington and Atlanta. His last affiliated action was in 2009.

Chuck Lofgren, LHP, Cleveland (No. 39 in 2007): A two-way star in high school, Lofgren would have loved to have been an earlier-era Ohtani, but ended up focusing on pitching and was developed slowly by Cleveland. He had a breakout season in High-A in 2006, the reason for his ranking, and was a Futures Game participant in San Francisco (his home region) during the 2007 season. The Brewers took him in the 2009 Rule 5 Draft and made a trade to keep him, but that didn’t go well. After a year in the Giants organization in 2011, he was out of affiliated baseball.

• Looking back at two decades of rankings | Top 100 Prospects Show

Foul tips

Delmon Young, OF, Rays (No. 1 in 2005-07; career WAR 3.2): The No. 1 overall pick in the 2003 Draft was our top prospect three years in a row, but could never quite gain traction in the big leagues. He did finish second in Rookie of the Year voting in 2007 and won ALCS MVP honors with the Tigers in 2012, finishing with 1,118 career games.

Jeremy Hermida, OF, Marlins (No. 2 in 2006; career WAR 2.7): Hermida was in the big leagues in 2005 after playing in that year’s Futures Game, three years after the Marlins took him No. 11 overall in 2002. An everyday player from 2007-09, he was traded to the Red Sox following that ’09 season and bounced around after that, with his career ending in Japan in 2015.

Ian Stewart, 3B, Rockies (No. 2 in 2005; career WAR 3.3): This was an early lesson to pay attention to Minor League park factors. Stewart had a huge year at the very-hitting-friendly ballpark in Asheville and never quite lived up to that high bar, though he did make it to Colorado in 2007 and played every day in 2009-10. He moved on to the Cubs in 2012, resurfaced briefly in the big leagues with the Angels in 2014 and was done after a little time in Triple-A with the Nationals in 2015.

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Brandon Wood, SS, Angels (No. 3 in 2006; career WAR -3.8): Wood’s prodigious power was on full display in the Minors in 2005 as he hit 43 homers, then followed up with what is still an Arizona Fall League record 14 long balls in the autumn, leading to his 2006 ranking. He had a couple of more big homer seasons in the Minors but never found footing in the big leagues, with his swing-and-miss holding him back.

Domonic Brown, OF, Phillies (No. 4 in 2011; career WAR 0.7): Brown hit his way up the Phillies’ ladder quickly and after a .980 OPS (and a trip to the Futures Game) in 2010, seemed destined for greatness. He was an All-Star in 2013 with 27 homers that year, but 2015 marked the last time he was in the big leagues, and he spent 2018-19 playing in Mexico.

Brian Matusz, LHP, Orioles (No. 5 in 2010; career WAR 2.1): Drafted as an advanced college lefty who could move quickly, Matusz lived up to that billing, making his debut with the O’s a little over a year after being selected No. 4 overall in 2008. He got Rookie of the Year votes in 2010, but never topped 100 innings again, transitioning to the bullpen (and having a few good years in that role). Back issues severely limited him and he last touched the big leagues in 2016.

Travis Snider, OF, Blue Jays (No. 7 in 2009; career WAR 4.3): The No. 14 pick in the 2006 Draft had back-to-back very strong seasons in the Minors in 2007 and 2008, including putting up good numbers in the AFL in ’07. He was just 20 when he made his big league debut in 2008 but never truly found his offensive grooves at the highest level (.709 OPS), though he did play pro ball for more than a dozen seasons total.

Pedro Álvarez, 3B, Pirates (No. 8 in 2010; career WAR 5.0): The Pirates had been commended for going all in for the Vanderbilt star at No. 2 overall in 2008 and evaluators thought his left-handed stroke would get to Pittsburgh in a hurry. He was in the big leagues in 2010 and he had some moments, including getting an All-Star nod and a Silver Slugger award in 2013. He moved on to the Orioles in 2016, but was done after the 2018 season.

Jesús Montero, C, Yankees (No. 9 in 2011; career WAR -0.3): Was this part of the often-scrutinized Yankees hype machine or just another prospect who didn’t quite click? He put up an OPS of .870 at age 20 in Triple-A in 2010 and was 21 when he made his big league debut the following year, raising hopes with a strong first impression. He was dealt to the Mariners and he had one full season (hitting 15 homers), but played in just 73 Major League games from 2013-15.

Danny Hultzen, LHP, Mariners (No. 16 in 2012 midseason; career WAR 0.2): Hultzen was supposed to be a quick riser from the University of Virginia to the bigs when the Mariners took him No. 2 overall in 2011. He looked like he was on the precipice in 2012, but a slew of injuries made him miss all of 2014 and 2017. He pitched just 72 innings from 2013 through 2019, though he deserves kudos for perseverance, making it to the big leagues with the Cubs in 2019 before calling it a career.