These 10 teams have long stats leader droughts. Who can end them?

If Aaron Judge leads the American League in home runs in 2024 -- making good on the Steamer projections -- it won’t exactly be an unusual sight to have a Yankee atop that leaderboard. After all, Judge took that crown in 2017 and ‘22. Luke Voit did it in the shortened ‘20 season, and during a previous generation in the Bronx, Alex Rodriguez accomplished the feat twice (2005 and ‘07) and Mark Teixeira once (‘09).

On the other hand, it’s been a long time since some clubs had a player finish first in the AL or NL in a certain notable category. In a handful of cases, it’s never happened.

But these droughts can and do end. Just last year, another Yankee (Gerrit Cole) became the first from his franchise to capture an AL ERA title since way back in 1980 -- a full decade before the AL Cy Young Award winner was born.

So who could pull off something comparable in 2024? Here are 10 teams that have both a long-running dry spell and a viable candidate to put a stop to it.

Guardians: Batting average
Last AL title: 1954 (Bobby Avila, .341)

Roberto Alomar, Albert Belle, Michael Brantley, Kenny Lofton and Manny Ramirez are among the stars who have taken aim at this drought but fallen a bit short. In the 1994 strike season, Belle (.357, second) and Lofton (.349, fourth) finished close behind the Yankees’ Paul O’Neill.

2024 candidate -- José Ramírez: Josh Naylor and Steven Kwan also have arguments for this spot. But Ramírez has batted over .300 twice and finished in the top 10 in the AL in average three times, including last year, when he posted a 96th-percentile expected batting average (xBA).

Other long droughts: D-backs (never), A’s (1952), Phillies (1958)

Astros: Home runs
Last AL/NL title: None

Over its 62 seasons in the NL and then the AL, Houston has never had a player lead the league in big flies. Spending 35 seasons in the cavernous Astrodome certainly didn’t help. A handful of Astros have come close, from Jim Wynn to Jeff Bagwell to Alex Bregman, but none have finished the job.

2024 candidate -- Yordan Alvarez: It’s felt like a home run title has been in Alvarez’s future since he debuted in 2019 by smashing 27 long balls in just 87 games. It hasn’t come particularly close to happening yet, but Alvarez still has topped the 30 mark in three straight seasons and is projected second in the AL in homers in 2024. (Same goes for OBP, another category Houston has yet to top.)

Other long droughts: Twins (1969), White Sox (1974), Reds (1978)

Mets: On-base percentage
Last NL title: None

In franchise history, nine different players have delivered a total of 13 qualifying seasons with at least a .400 OBP, but none topped the NL. Three of those seasons came via John Olerud, whose Mets record .447 OBP in 1998 was swamped by Mark McGwire’s .470 during his record-breaking home run chase.

2024 candidate -- Brandon Nimmo: He also has multiple .400 OBP seasons for the Mets, finishing at .404 in both 2018 and ‘20 and finishing second to the Reds’ Joey Votto (.417) in the former. Nimmo has the patience, keen eye and contact ability to get to the top of the leaderboard.

Other long droughts: Astros (never), D-backs (never), Rays (never)

Padres: Slugging percentage
Last NL title: None

San Diego has never claimed a title in slugging or OPS. The team’s ballparks probably haven’t helped, but until recent years, the club also didn't employ a lot of big-time power bats. Ken Caminiti set the franchise slugging record during his 1996 NL MVP season (.621) but finished third, 18 points behind Colorado’s Ellis Burks.

2024 candidate -- Fernando Tatis Jr.: In 2021, Tatis (.611) finished a mere .004 behind Bryce Harper for the NL lead. The question now is whether, after missing all of 2022 and seeing his numbers slide in ‘23 (.449 SLG), Tatis can rediscover his earlier form.

Other long droughts: Rays (never), Orioles (1976), Dodgers (1985)

Rays: OPS
Last AL title: None

Since debuting in 1998, the franchise has never topped the AL in OPS or either of its component stats. By far the best OPS in the Rays’ 26-year history came in 2007, when Carlos Peña’s 1.037 placed third in the AL, 30 points shy of Alex Rodriguez.

2024 candidate -- Yandy Díaz: Need proof Díaz can snap such a streak? Just last year, he hit .330 to become the first Rays player to win an AL batting title. OPS is more of a longshot, but Díaz is still projected just outside the top 10 there. His elite ability to hit the ball hard also gives him some upside if he can start generating more lift.

Other long droughts: Padres (never), Orioles (1966), Dodgers (1985)

Cubs: Stolen bases
Last NL title: 1939 (Stan Hack, 17 -- tie)

Between 1928-39, the Cubs swiped seven NL crowns in this category, thanks to Kiki Cuyler, Augie Galan and Stan Hack. The franchise’s best total since then came in 2006, when Juan Pierre’s 58 steals made him the NL runner-up to the Mets’ José Reyes (64).

2024 candidate -- Nico Hoerner: After stealing 28 bases in his first 247 MLB games, Hoerner went 43-for-50 last year, finishing fourth in the NL -- albeit a distant fourth to Ronald Acuña Jr.’s 73. While he’s not a top-tier speedster, Hoerner’s willingness to pick his spots and push the envelope on the bases -- in this era of new rules -- should continue serving him well in 2024.

Other long droughts: Blue Jays (never), Rangers (never), Twins (1943)

White Sox: Wins above replacement
Last AL title: 1971 (Wilbur Wood, 11.0)

We’re talking about Baseball Reference’s version of WAR here and lumping all players together, although even if you limit the pool to position players, a member of the Sox still hasn’t led the league since Dick Allen in 1972. Hall of Famer Frank Thomas is responsible for six of Chicago’s top 11 WAR figures by position players since Allen’s big year, but Thomas only finished as high as second in the AL among position players and fourth overall.

2024 candidate -- Luis Robert Jr.: The ultra-talented center fielder put together close to a full Major League season for the first time in 2023 (145 games), and the results were superb, at least until he ran out of gas and sustained a knee injury in September. Robert’s all-around ability at a premium position gives him one of the highest ceilings in the sport if everything clicks.

Other long droughts: Marlins (never), Rays (never), Brewers (1986)

Brewers: Pitcher wins
Last AL/NL title: 1981 (Pete Vuckovich, 14 -- tie)

Vuckovich’s title was a four-way tie during a strike-shortened season. No Brewers pitcher has accomplished the feat outright, or in a full schedule, in 55 seasons of franchise history. Mike Caldwell finished second to the Yankees’ Ron Guidry in the AL when he set a Brewers record with 22 wins in 1978. More recently, Zach Davies’ 17 victories came one short of Clayton Kershaw on the NL side in 2017.

2024 candidate -- Corbin Burnes: The right-hander has posted modest win totals the past three years (11, 12, 10) despite being one of MLB’s top pitchers and playing on good Brewers teams. (Even in his 2021 Cy Young Award-winning season, he finished behind 14 other NL pitchers.) There is a good reason why wins have fallen out of favor as a pitching metric, but Burnes should have another shot in '24, assuming the Brewers don't trade him.

Other long droughts: Rockies (never), Mets (1985), Pirates (1991)

Phillies: ERA
Last NL title: 1972 (Steve Carlton, 1.97)

When Carlton won in 1972, the legendary Lefty became the first Phillie to do so since Grover Alexander in 1916, and while the current drought is not quite that long yet, it is getting close. The club’s vaunted 2011 rotation did make a good run at it, as Roy Halladay (second), Cliff Lee (third) and Cole Hamels (sixth) all finished close behind Kershaw.

2024 candidate -- Zack Wheeler: You also could pick Aaron Nola (second to Jacob deGrom in 2018). But Wheeler has consistently been near the top of the NL in this category over the past four seasons. While his 3.61 ERA in 2023 wasn’t especially shiny, his 3.11 expected ERA was a half-run lower and ranked second to Spencer Strider among NL qualifiers.

Other long droughts: Rockies (never), White Sox (1967), Pirates (1977)

Royals: Strikeouts
Last AL title: None

Only four times in 55 seasons of Royals history has a pitcher reached the 200-strikeout mark. (To put that in perspective, the Expos/Nationals franchise, founded the same year, has done it 18 times.) All four of those Royals seasons resulted in top-three AL finishes in K’s, but none were especially close to the No. 1 spot. Bob Johnson was 98 behind Sam McDowell in 1970, Dennis Leonard was 97 behind Nolan Ryan in '77, Kevin Appier was 50 behind Roger Clemens in '96, and Zack Greinke was 27 behind Justin Verlander in 2009.

2024 candidate -- Cole Ragans: This might seem like a massive stretch for a pitcher with so little track record, but Ragans was a revelation after arriving in last summer’s Aroldis Chapman trade. From Aug. 1 forward, his 86 K’s led the Majors. It remains to be seen if he can sustain that over a full season, but if Ragans’ arm holds up, he might have a shot to make Royals history

Other long droughts: Marlins (none), Rockies (none), A’s (1931)