As GM Meetings wrap, 1 move expected to light Hot Stove

LAS VEGAS -- The General Managers Meetings won’t be remembered for one significant transaction, but when we ultimately review the 2022-23 offseason, much of the movement could look like a chain reaction that started with one move: Aaron Judge’s contract.

Judge isn’t just the best free agent available this offseason, he’s also the first domino that will spark the rest of the market. Until he signs, the top of the market may find itself in a holding pattern, as Judge’s decision could help determine what happens with the rest of the top free agents, as the clubs missing out on the slugger will be forced to pivot elsewhere.

“If he stays with the Yankees, do the Giants, Dodgers and Cubs all turn their attention to the shortstops?” one industry source said. “And if he signs with one of those teams, how do the Yankees respond? Where Judge lands will determine what happens with a lot of other players and teams.”

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We know the Yankees are hoping to re-sign their slugger, but Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi put New York -- and every other Judge suitor -- on notice this week when he said that “from a financial standpoint, there’s nobody that would be out of our capability to kind of meet what we expect the contract demands will be.”

That Judge sets up as the linchpin for the entire market is interesting, given that the other top free-agent hitters don’t play the outfield. Trea Turner, Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson are all shortstops, while the next-best options on the outfield market are Brandon Nimmo, Andrew Benintendi and Mitch Haniger.

“None of the outfielders on the market are Plan Bs for teams that want Judge and don’t get him,” the source said. “Maybe those teams get into the shortstop market, or maybe they go the other way and try to sign [Justin] Verlander or [Jacob] deGrom. And if he leaves the Yankees, who knows what they will do? They’ll have to do something big.”

One team that might benefit if Judge’s situation takes some time to resolve itself? The Phillies.

Philadelphia is not expected to pursue Judge this offseason, focusing instead on the shortstop class. Turner is believed to be the Phillies’ top target, giving the club the opportunity to put a full-court press on the shortstop while some of his other potential suitors wait to see what happens with Judge.

“Teams that aren’t in the Judge sweepstakes can go about their business,” one National League executive said. “The Phillies can tell Turner or whoever else they have their eye on, ‘You’re not our Plan B; you’re the guy we want.’ Players like hearing that.”

While the baseball world waits for the Judge market to start shaking out -- something few expect to happen prior to next month’s Winter Meetings -- the trade market could heat up even earlier.

Some executives at the GM Meetings identified Bryan Reynolds, Pablo López, Corbin Burnes and Sean Murphy among the top potential trade candidates this offseason,

Given the top-heavy nature of the free-agent class -- Judge, the four shortstops, deGrom, Verlander and Carlos Rodón are considered to be the clear-cut top eight -- teams unwilling to pay the price for those players might be swayed to turn to the trade market to find impact players.

“I think you’ll see the free agents impact the trade market,” one American League general manager said. “Especially with the pitching. If you aren’t going to spend big on the top guys, you’re going to have to look at the other 29 rosters to find high-end pitching.”

Pirates GM Ben Cherington believes the trade market might take a little while to get going, as this week’s meetings took place just days after the conclusion of the World Series.

“I think we're even earlier in understanding how the market is going to play than we would be normally at the GM Meetings,” Cherington said. “Everything is probably just a few days behind where we would normally be as an industry, but that will naturally catch up between now and the Winter Meetings.”

Mets GM Billy Eppler agreed, noting that this week’s meetings gave executives a chance to get a feel for what the trade market might look like in the weeks ahead.

“At this time of the year, one thing that we know in our position is what the free-agent market looks like; one thing that we don't entirely know is what the trade market looks like,” Eppler said. “We spend this time really trying to peel that back.”

As they left Las Vegas on Thursday, club executives had a far better idea of what might be out there for the taking on the trade market. Thursday afternoon also marked the end of the “quiet period,” so while agents sat down with teams this week to gauge their interest and needs, they can now talk dollars and "sense," trying to see if there’s a match to be made both financially and fit-wise for the 150 or so free agents.

“What we use these meetings for is to touch base with everybody,” Eppler said. “To get a sense of what those [trade] availabilities are and try to marry those into the free-agent market and take kind of a global player personnel landscape before diving into anything in particular.”