7 potential free agents with a lot at stake in 2nd half

While every upcoming free agent is looking to finish this season strong, there is a select number of players who have more at stake than others over these next two-plus months.

Here are seven potential free agents whose valuations will be heavily dependent on how they do in the second half.

All statistics are through Monday.

Tim Anderson, SS, White Sox
Coming into this season, picking up Anderson’s $14 million club option for 2024 seemed like a no-brainer for Chicago. But after recording a .318 average, 51 homers, 53 steals and an .820 OPS from 2019-22, the shortstop’s production has cratered in 2023. With the highest ground-ball rate in MLB, Anderson is still searching for his first home run and owns a .227/.264/.266 slash through 70 games. No player has a lower wins above replacement figure (-1.6), per Baseball-Reference. Anderson needs a big finish, either to convince the White Sox to pick up his option or to remind other teams what he can bring to the table should he hit free agency.

Cody Bellinger, OF, Cubs
Despite hitting .193 with a .611 OPS across 2021-22, Bellinger was able to secure $17.5 million in guaranteed money on a one-year deal (with a 2024 mutual option) with the Cubs after being non-tendered by the Dodgers last November. The outfielder reportedly received some multiyear offers, but he opted to take a one-year contract with the aim of rebuilding his value before trying his hand at free agency again in a year. So far, so good, as the 2019 NL MVP has produced a .305/.360/.524 slash, 12 homers and 12 steals over 62 games with Chicago.

That said, it’s a bit early to declare Bellinger’s mission accomplished. A late-season swoon could cause some doubts to creep back up, especially because the left-handed slugger doesn’t exactly have the best contact-quality metrics to fall back on, ranking in the seventh percentile in hard-hit rate, the 21st percentile in barrel rate and the 34th percentile in expected wOBA. On the other hand, a strong finish would cement Bellinger’s rebound and position the 28-year-old to be one of the most coveted position players on the market this offseason.

Jack Flaherty, SP, Cardinals
Flaherty looked like one of the best young pitchers in baseball four years ago, finishing fourth in the NL Cy Young race in his age-23 season (2.75 ERA, 231 K’s). However, his career has taken a turn for the worse as he’s battled injuries and recorded a 4.05 ERA since the beginning of 2020. Now only a few months away from free agency, Flaherty may find himself on another team before the Aug. 1 Trade Deadline as the floundering Cardinals plan for next year. Regardless of where he ends up, the right-hander has a chance to significantly improve his free-agent stock if he can keep up the productive stretch he’s been on for roughly two months, posting a 3.03 ERA and a 3.00 FIP in his past 10 starts.

Andrew Heaney, SP, Rangers
Like former teammate Tyler Anderson (now with the Angels), Heaney has regressed this season after leaving the Dodgers’ ecosystem in free agency to sign with the Rangers. While the left-hander is striking out more than a batter per inning, his ERA is 4.43 and his FIP is even higher (5.02). At age 32, Heaney has a tough decision looming, because he can opt out of the final year on his two-year contract. He’s owed $13 million in 2024, though his salary could jump to $20 million if he reaches 150 innings this year (he's pitched 91 1/3 innings through 18 starts). How he performs the rest of this season -- and whether or not he meets his innings requirement -- could go a long way toward determining whether he opts out and tests free agency again.

Aaron Nola, SP, Phillies
After posting a 3.47 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP and a 4.4 K/BB ratio from 2018-22, Nola looked poised to be one of the top pitchers on the free-agent market this offseason. However, the 30-year-old has taken an ill-timed step back in 2023, registering a 4.39 ERA over 119 innings with his worst K-rate (24.9%) since 2015 and his worst whiff rate (25.5%) since the year after that. Nola has provided some glimpses of his old self lately, but he’s had a tough time building positive momentum, alternating flashes of brilliance with far too many missteps. Still, given his track record, the door is open for Nola to vault back up the free-agent rankings if he can recapture his past form in the second half.

Luis Severino, SP, Yankees
Having made just 36 appearances (32 starts) since the beginning of 2019, Severino is far removed from his days as the Yankees’ ace, though his performance a year ago (3.18 ERA, 3.73 K/BB ratio) at least fostered optimism that the oft-injured righty could still be an effective big league starter, when healthy. He hasn’t been able to sustain that success this year, however, recording career worsts in ERA (6.66), FIP (6.33) and K/BB ratio (1.82) over 10 starts after missing the first six weeks with a right lat strain. With his 30th birthday on the horizon, Severino has two-plus months to bolster his free-agent case.

Joey Votto, 1B, Reds
Somewhat lost amid the excitement surrounding rookie sensation Elly De La Cruz -- not to mention other Reds youngsters such as Matt McLain, Spencer Steer and Andrew Abbott -- has been Votto’s resurgence since returning from left shoulder surgery. Although he’s only hitting .221, Votto already has seven homers and is slugging .574 with a .911 OPS over 21 games. Cincinnati has to make what is effectively a $13 million decision on the 39-year-old Votto this offseason, either picking up his $20 million option for 2024 or paying a $7 million buyout and possibly saying goodbye to a franchise icon. Votto could make it a much tougher decision if he continues to mash like this.