These farm systems could jump in 2021

The 2021 Minor League season begins at last next Tuesday, and that is cause for many celebrations.

Among the reasons for joy is the fact that wide-ranging prospect evaluations will no longer be static. Games against actual competition will give us the best looks at Minor Leaguers' skills that we've had since late 2019. No more alternate sites. No more instructional leagues behind closed doors. No more chewing on the crumbs of small Spring Training samples. This is the real stuff.

With that will come the rise and fall of farm systems on the whole. MLB Pipeline came out with its own 2021 farm system rankings last month, but as the Minor League season rolls along, some organizations will have big chances to improve their station as their prospects gain more experience and show off improved skills over the long haul. With that in mind, here are five farm systems that opened 2021 outside of the top-10 overall rankings but could climb into that group by this time next year:

San Francisco Giants

Why it could happen
The Giants ranked fourth in MLB Pipeline's 21-and-under talent rankings, making theirs the highest system on that list that didn’t make the top-10 cut in the overall group. You could drop that age limit down to 20, and San Francisco might even improve enough because of all the youth in its pipeline. Marco Luciano is the cream of the crop already as a 19-year-old shortstop who has shown monster power from the right side. Once he gets full-season experience in 2021, he could very well be the game’s top overall prospect come 2022. Similarly, Luis Matos, Kyle Harrison, Alexander Canario and Luis Toribio – each of whom enters the season at 20 or younger – could be Top-100 prospects in their own rights once they see Low-A and above. This is a young core that just needs experience because the tools are there. That experience is about to come in a big way.

Why it may not
Graduations could certainly hurt the Giants, though that isn’t a complaint from their end. Joey Bart already has 103 at-bats in the Majors (27 shy of graduation), and Heliot Ramos is expected by many to make his own debut by the bay sometime in the first half. Losing both would knock out two of the Giants’ five Top 100 prospects. Also while we believe that Matos and crew will improve as they mature, that is not necessarily a given. Players struggle with moves up the chain all the time – look at Ramos’ numbers in Augusta in 2018, for example – as they fail to make the necessary adjustments. San Francisco is right on the top-10 line as it is, but potential losses and the work that still needs to be done make the system not at all a lock for 2022.

Cleveland Indians

Why it could happen
Cleveland might have an even deeper system than San Francisco when it comes to young talent. Twenty of the organization’s 30 ranked prospects at present are 21 years old or younger, including every prospect ranked between No. 2 (Tyler Freeman) and No. 14 (Gabriel Rodriguez). Like the Giants, the Indians have an impressive young group that has yet to see full-season ball and could easily jump into the Top 100 ranks once their pro experience grows. George Valera leads that charge as an outfielder with above-average hit and power tools, while 2019 24th overall pick Daniel Espino is just waiting to unleash his 70-grade fastball and plus slider on full-season batters. Shortstop Brayan Rocchio, second baseman Aaron Bracho and right-hander Ethan Hankins are in that mix as well, while shortstop Gabriel Arias has the power potential and plus defensive ability to make a jump in his first full season in the Cleveland system, having come over from San Diego at last year’s deadline. Don’t rule out Cleveland’s pitching development factory turning out a few breakout arms either.

Why it may not
This group isn’t loaded with current Top 100 prospects. Nolan Jones (No. 31) and Freeman (No. 87) are the only players to fit that bill as it stands right now, though Bo Naylor isn’t far from joining them. Jones will open the year at Triple-A Columbus, where he’ll focus on making the most of his patient approach and plus power, and could very well see enough time in the Majors to graduate by season’s end. Barring a major breakout, that would leave Cleveland without a top-50 prospect, and despite the Indians’ recent history of development successes, we can’t assume Valera & Co. are guaranteed to follow down that path. If it was a guarantee, they would be Top 100 prospects already.

New York Mets

Why it could happen
The Mets snuck their way onto the top 10 of MLB Pipeline’s 21-and-under rankings for a very good reason. The organization boasts four Top-100 prospects in Francisco Alvarez (No. 41), Ronny Mauricio (No. 58), Matt Allan (No. 66) and Brett Baty (No. 83), each of whom is 21 years old or younger. Mauricio is the only member of that group who has seen full-season ball yet, and even he didn’t climb above Low-A prior to the 2020 season. It’s unlikely anyone in that group graduates in 2021, and it’s even more possible that they climb higher in the rankings once they show off their tools over 100-plus games (assuming health). Alvarez, in particular, could be one of the top two catching prospects in the game by summer’s end, and Allan has the three above-average pitches to post some standout numbers at the lower levels of the New York system. Don’t rule out a Top 100 jump for outfield defensive wizard and 2020 first-rounder Pete Crow-Armstrong, and J.T. Ginn could make a similar leap as he establishes himself post-Tommy John surgery.

Why it may not
Overall depth is a true issue for the Mets system. It’s why New York’s National League club placed 19th in MLB Pipeline’s original overall rankings. That’s in part because of trades since the start of 2020 (like the one for Francisco Lindor) that hurt such depth. As of now, it’s difficult to identify a prospect outside of the Mets’ top 10 that could be a real breakout candidate in 2021 or at least one that would still be considered a prospect by Opening Day 2022. There’s a very real chance that this system remains top-heavy, and that’s before considering any deadline deals the Mets will need to make to stay competitive in the NL East.

New York Yankees

Why it could happen
Here is the necessary Jasson Dominguez mention. The 18-year-old, switch-hitting outfielder has all the tools of a Top 10 overall prospect, namely the plus power and 65-grade speed. He just hasn’t played in the Minors yet at any level. Putting those skills on display at Low-A Tampa would lock him in as one of the game’s brightest young talents, and that alone would make the Yankees a must-follow system in 2022. He isn’t alone either. Luis Gil, Luis Medina and Alexander Vizcaino are all hard-throwing right-handers with high-octane stuff and ETAs of 2022. They are unlikely to graduate and are candidates to surge with more time on Minor League mounds. We haven’t even gotten to recent first-rounders Austin Wells or Anthony Volpe yet, and 20-year-old shortstop Oswald Peraza should get his second taste at full-season ball after playing 46 games for Class A Charleston in 2019. At the very least, the arrow on the Yankees system is pointing up for the months ahead.

Why it may not
All that said about the young pitchers, the Yankees system is going to lose Deivi García to graduation at some point, perhaps as close to a few weeks from now. (He’s sitting 11 2/3 innings away from the prospect limit.) That would take away one Top-100 prospect. Clarke Schmidt would be a graduation candidate at some point, but he remains on the 60-day injured list with a right elbow strain. Even if he doesn’t pick up the necessary Major League innings to bump him from prospectdom, that injury concern would hamper his status on such lists. Then, there’s the point that Dominguez could face some speed bumps in his first taste of the pros. For example, we haven’t truly seen his hit tool in action, and he could have swing-and-miss issues against pitchers the caliber of which he’s never before seen. This isn’t to say it will happen, but it’s certainly possible that Dominguez holds serve at Low-A, instead of rising up the ranks. As for the young pitching core, those arms come with control concerns that could be exacerbated by facing more experienced hitters. It’s a volatile group with all the pluses and minuses that come with that.

Texas Rangers

Why it could happen
Truth be told, this is the only group on here that comes down to the Draft in a major way. The Rangers will pick at the No. 2 spot in July, making them the only organization with a pick in the top seven that wasn’t ranked among MLB Pipeline’s top 10 farm systems entering 2021. That’s a major opportunity for improvement, especially in this Draft where the No. 1 overall pick is up for debate. Jonathan Mayo’s latest mock has Texas staying local with high-school shortstop Jordan Lawlar, a five-tool threat with a good hit tool and plus speed. He would instantly give the Rangers some star power at the top of their system, as would Vanderbilt right-handers Jack Leiter (the top pick in Mayo’s mock) and Kumar Rocker or California prep infielder Marcelo Mayer. Should the Rangers choose to pull what the Orioles did last year with Heston Kjerstad at No. 2 and cut a below-slot deal that saves money for later picks, it would up the chance at a deeper Draft class. With Sam Huff having already seen the Majors and Josh Jung (currently out with a foot injury) not far away, the Rangers will need a few more breakout candidates to come through in 2021. Don’t rule out the organization adding Minor League depth with midseason trades, perhaps for Joey Gallo.

Why it may not
The Rangers were ranked 21st in the overall rankings last month – the lowest of any of the systems on this list – and that was before Dane Dunning’s graduation from prospect status. They already have a heavier lift than the Giants, Indians, Mets or Yankees. That’s a lot to ask out of one Draft, and after moving Lance Lynn in the offseason, Texas doesn’t have the Major League assets outside of Gallo that could lead to a blockbuster trade. Such a climb isn’t impossible – the Orioles weren’t top system until their 2019 Draft – but it’s a Texas-sized task.