Is it a two-horse race for Juan Soto? Executives think so

SAN ANTONIO – Juan Soto’s free agency saga is just beginning, but according to executives at the General Managers Meetings, it’s likely to be a race made for Frank Sinatra.

New York, New York.

The Yankees and Mets are expected to engage in a bidding war for the superstar slugger, and while other teams such as the Phillies, Dodgers, Giants and Nationals may dip their respective toes in the pool, the wide-ranging belief within the industry is that Soto will wind up in New York when all is said and done.

• All the latest Juan Soto rumors

The only question is whether he’ll be calling Queens or the Bronx home.

“It’s the Yankees or the Mets,” one American League executive said when asked to handicap the Soto sweepstakes. “He knows the Yankees well after spending a year there, and Steve Cohen has enough money to give him whatever he wants if he decides he wants him badly enough. It’s tough for me to see Soto winding up anywhere else.”

Word is that Soto prefers to stay on the East Coast, which would be an obstacle for the Dodgers or any other West Coast club. The Phillies will likely take a shot at the four-time All-Star, a source said, hoping the presence of former Nationals teammates Bryce Harper, Trea Turner and Kyle Schwarber and hitting coach Kevin Long could work to their advantage. But Soto had a taste of New York in 2024, helping the Yankees advance to the World Series in his first and only season in pinstripes.

• FAQ: What to know about Yankees' offseason

“Does Soto want to continue hitting in front of [Aaron] Judge or does he want the most money?” said an AL executive who predicted Soto would stay with the Yankees. “Unless the Mets absolutely blow the Yankees’ offer out of the water, why would he leave [the Yankees]?”

Yankees GM Brian Cashman spoke with Scott Boras on Monday, telling the agent that the Yankees are ready to meet with Soto as many times as he wants to if he feels such meetings are necessary. Given Soto’s experience with the Yankees, there wouldn’t appear to be a need for the club to make its pitch to Soto, making the financial offer the biggest factor in those talks.

“He knows how we feel,” Cashman said. “After the season, I had a chance to thank him for everything and told him we'd be in touch. Since that time, I've talked to Scott, as well. He’ll get a feel for the dance steps that Juan Soto wants and he'll keep us in the loop.”

Cashman was asked whether Cohen’s financial wherewithal makes him nervous about the possibility of losing Soto to the Yankees’ crosstown rivals, but the GM noted that the Mets aren’t the only competition.

“It's hard to say,” Cashman said. “They want to win. They're in a large market with us, they had a taste of success this year, and they want to move the needle even more forward. The best way to do that is to import quality players to what you already have. That's what we, they, and anybody interested in winning and being the last team standing, that's what it's all about.

“That's just the nature of the beast. Big-market owners with deep pockets aren't the only ones signing players to big deals. You've seen the San Diego Padres sitting out in the West Coast, they've imported a lot of big-time players and big-time contracts that they've out-competed other teams of interest for. It comes in various forms from various cities at various times. The market on a year-in, year-out basis is coming from all different aspects of the baseball universe, so we do our best to compete with whomever on a year-in, year-out basis.”

Now or later?

The trade market hasn’t come close to formulating itself in the early days of the offseason, but one name generating some buzz at the GM Meetings is Brewers closer Devin Williams.

Milwaukee declined its $10.5 million option on Williams for 2025, though the right-hander remains under club control for one more year, as he’s eligible for arbitration for the final time this winter.

The Brewers are believed to be open to dealing Williams as he enters his contract year, and while many teams will be seeking bullpen help this offseason, one AL executive wondered if trading Williams before the season would be the best way for Milwaukee to maximize its return.

“It's hard to put what his absolute value is,” the executive said. “He’s had some health issues, and while it seems like he’s over them, they were still there. How does that affect his market? Look at the history of closers getting traded this time of year; are they better off waiting until the Trade Deadline?”

Relievers tend to command big returns in July, when contenders look to make the additions they believe will help them get to the postseason. But a club that feels Williams will be a difference-maker over the 162-game grind could be willing to pay the price to acquire him during the offseason. Trading for Williams before the season also gives the acquiring club an opportunity to extend him a qualifying offer next winter, which wouldn’t be an option following a midseason deal.

“All it takes is one motivated team,” the exec said. “If the missing piece for your team is the closer that's going to put you over the top, you’re going to win the deal.”

Offseason obstacles

The Rays will be looking to upgrade their offense this winter, with catching likely topping the list of needs. The free-agent market has been a challenge for Tampa Bay for years thanks to their payroll limitations, and the damage to Tropicana Field during Hurricane Milton has left the Rays with uncertainty regarding where they will play in 2025, adding another obstacle for president of baseball operations Erik Neander as he works to retool the roster this winter.

“It’s wasted energy to worry. It is what it is; just make the most of your circumstances,” Neander said. “I think you kind of own it. I think we've always been a destination players see as a place where they can get better and we can have a positive impact on their careers. The reasons those exist weren't necessarily our stadium; it was our people. It's our staff, it's the people that are around them and how we invest in our players to help them be the best that they can be. Those things are all still there.”

The Rays faced a similar situation when Hurricane Ian displaced the club from its Spring Training complex in 2023, causing the club to conduct camp between Disney World and Tropicana Field.

“Disruption, as an industry, we've all had some; you have to just find ways to adapt,” Neander said. “We'll lean into it, we'll try to make the most of it, rally around it, and if we win games, it will be great.”