How division leaders entering July have fared

It’s July, which means All-Star month and the colloquial end of the first half of the season. It certainly isn’t too early to start trying to project what the October postseason field will look like. Are our current division leaders for real?

Here’s a look at those current leaders and what the playoff field could look like. Note, all stats below exclude the shortened 2020 season and instead look at full seasons for the impact and postseason implications.

• Current MLB standings

What it means to be in first place

Since 1996, the first full season with at least one Wild Card, 105 of 162 eventual division champions held at least a share of that division lead entering July 1st. That’s 65 percent of division winners.

Take note, Orioles, Guardians, Mariners, Phillies, Brewers and Dodgers fans -- those are the teams that currently lead their divisions.

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Last season, two of the six division leaders on July 1 went on to win their divisions, the fewest since 2014 (also two). In the American League, the Twins won their division, while the Rays and Rangers, who led the AL East and West, respectively, entering July, each made the postseason as Wild Cards instead. In the NL, the Braves won their division, but the Reds and D-backs, who led the Central and West entering July, respectively, did not. The D-backs were a Wild Card, but the Reds missed the playoffs.

If you were wondering, there have been three seasons in this span where all six division champions held at least a share of their division lead entering July 1: 1996-97 and ‘99.

Since 1996, 17 of the 27 World Series winners, excluding 2020, led their divisions entering July. The Rangers did so last year, although they did not go on to win the division.

Big leads

Four of the six divisions feature a lead of at least six games: the Guardians by six in the AL Central, Brewers by 6 1/2 in the NL Central, Dodgers by 7 1/2 in the NL West and Phillies by eight in the NL East.

This is the fourth time since 1996 that at least four teams have division leads of at least six games entering July, per the Elias Sports Bureau. It also happened in 2019 (Yankees, Twins, Astros, Dodgers), 2016 (Cleveland, Rangers, Nationals, Cubs, Giants) and 1998 (Yankees, Cleveland, Braves, Brewers).

Looking at the NL, it’s the third time in that span that all three divisions in one league were led by at least six games entering July, joining the AL in 2019 (Yankees, Twins, Astros) and NL in 2016 (Nationals, Cubs, Giants).

This year’s leaders overall

Of this year’s current division leaders entering June, each has had at least a share of that lead entering June at least one other time since 2016, except two. The Mariners are in this spot for the first time since 2003 and the Phillies for the first time since 2011.

Each of the current leaders has won its division at least once since 2022 – except the Phillies, who last did so in 2011, and Mariners, who last did in 2001.

What’s next

Even three months in, there’s still plenty of baseball left to be played. But fans of the six division leaders can take some comfort in knowing that historically, more than half of those teams have gone on to win their divisions. And for fans of teams that aren’t in playoff position, there’s still plenty of hope -- while 65% of these teams go on to win their divisions, that means 35% do not, too. Only time will tell.