What it means to be in 1st place entering August

It’s August, which means it's the beginning of the stretch run. The Home Run Derby and All-Star Game have passed, the Trade Deadline is today, and playoff implication-laden baseball is taking center stage.

It might feel like if a team isn’t in playoff position right now, it could be time to start worrying. But is that true? For teams hoping to win the division, it’s definitely getting close to crunch time.

Let's take a look at what it means to be in first place in a division entering August and what the playoff field may look like. Note, all stats below exclude the shortened 2020 season and instead look at full seasons for the impact and postseason implications.

• MLB Standings

What it means to be in first place (or not be there)

Since 1996 -- the first full season with at least one Wild Card in each league -- 113 of 156 eventual division champions held at least a share of their division lead entering August 1. That’s 72 percent of division winners.

Take note, Orioles, Twins, Rangers, Braves, Reds and Dodgers fans -- those are the teams that currently lead their divisions.

Last season, three of the six division leaders on August 1 went on to win their divisions. In the American League, the Yankees and Astros each won their divisions, while the Twins, who led the AL Central entering August, missed the postseason entirely. In the NL, the Dodgers won their division, but the Mets and Brewers, who led the East and Central entering August, respectively, did not. The Mets were a Wild Card, but the Brewers missed the playoffs.

Since 1996, 15 of the 26 World Series winners, excluding 2020, led their divisions entering August. Before the Astros last year, the last winner in a full season to do so was the 2018 Red Sox.

Close races abound

One thing that stands out quickly on the standings page: every division leader except the NL East’s Braves leads by fewer than three games. This is just the second time since the split to six divisions that as many as five teams were within fewer than three games entering August. It also happened in 2011, also with five of the six.

Four of the division leads are fewer than two games. That’s the most such division leads entering August in this span. In the aforementioned 2011 season, the five leads in question were all either two and a half or two games.

The AL East and AL Central

We’ve covered the fact that the AL East could be historically strong, but it bears a recap here. The division has a combined .562 winning percentage, which would be the highest by a division in a single season. The current record for a five-team division? .541 by the 2022 AL East.

All five AL East teams are above .500. If you’re curious, the latest into a season that an entire division has been above .500 was the NL East in 2005, according to the Elias Sports Bureau. All five teams were over .500 through October 1, the second-to-last day of the season. The Nationals then lost their finale to finish 81-81.

On the flip side, the Twins lead the Central at 54-53, a .505 winning percentage. The lowest winning percentage by a division winner in a full season was .506, by the 82-80 Padres in the 2005 NL West.

This year’s leaders

Of this year’s current division leaders entering August, each has had at least a share of that lead entering August at least once since 2016, except the Reds – who were last in this spot in 2012. The Twins, Rangers, Braves and Dodgers have each won their divisions at least once since 2016. The Reds last did so in 2012, the Orioles in ‘14.

What’s next

October is quickly drawing closer, but there’s still plenty of baseball left to be played. But fans of the six division leaders can take some comfort in knowing that historically, almost three quarters of those teams have gone on to win their divisions. And for fans of teams that aren’t in playoff position, there’s still plenty of hope -- while 72% of these teams go on to win their divisions, that means 28% do not.

Now, we all get to watch and see what happens.