Division leader trends: What it means to be No. 1 on Sept. 1

Welcome to September. By the end of this month, we’ll know who’s headed to the playoffs and who will be watching from home. We’ve been keeping track all year of what it means to hold a division lead entering any month, and there’s no question that it’s of more importance now than ever.

If your favorite team isn’t leading now but still has postseason aspirations, it’d better figure it out soon or be vying for a Wild Card spot.

Let's take a look at what it means to be in first place in a division and what the playoff field may look like. Note, all stats below exclude the shortened 2020 season and instead look at full seasons for the impact and postseason implications.

What it means to be (or not to be) in first place

Since 1996 -- the first full season with at least one Wild Card in each league -- 130 of 162 eventual division champions held at least a share of their division lead entering Sept. 1. That’s 80 percent of division winners.

There has not been a season since 1996 in which none of the division leaders entering September went on to win their divisions that year. In other words, history tells us that most of the six current leaders -- the Yankees, Guardians, Astros, Phillies, Brewers and Dodgers -- are expected to win the division. But not necessarily all of them.

For those with comebacks in mind, the Elias Sports Bureau tells us that the largest division lead entering September for a team that did not win that division is 7 1/2 games by the 1995 Angels, who missed out on the playoffs entirely when the Yankees won that year’s Wild Card and the Mariners won the division.

Largest division lead entering September, did not win division (since 1969)

1995 Angels: 7 1/2
1978 Red Sox: 6 1/2
2006 Tigers: 4 1/2
1969 Cubs: 4 1/2

What about eventual World Series winners? Since 1996, 17 of the 27 World Series winners -- again, excluding 2020 -- led their division entering September.

Big leads in NL

All three National League divisions feature a lead of at least six games: the Brewers by 10 in the NL Central, the Dodgers by six in the NL West and the Phillies by six in the NL East.

This is the fourth time since 1996 that three teams in the same league have division leads of at least six games entering September, per the Elias Sports Bureau. It also happened in 2011 (NL), 1999 (AL) and 1998 (NL).

This year’s leaders

Each of this season’s division leaders entering September has had a lead to start the month at least one other time since 2022 – except the Phillies, who last did so in 2011.

Similarly, each of the current leaders has won its division at least once since 2022 -- except, you guessed it, the Phillies, who last did so in 2011.

What’s next

There’s no longer plenty of baseball to be played. The baseball that’s left is going to be among the highest of stakes. If your team is currently in playoff position, there’s a lot of evidence for optimism. And if your team isn’t, just know that we’ve seen plenty of September comebacks, all things considered.