With 2 months to go, being in first place carries more meaning

It’s August, which means it's the beginning of the stretch run. The Home Run Derby, All-Star Game and Trade Deadline have passed, and playoff implication-laden baseball is taking center stage.

It might feel like it could be time to be worried if a team isn’t in playoff position right now. But is that true? For teams hoping to win the division, it’s definitely getting close to crunch time.

Let's take a look at what it means to be in first place in a division entering August and what the playoff field may look like. Note, all stats below exclude the shortened 2020 season and instead look at full seasons for the impact and postseason implications.

What it means to be in first place (or not be there)

Since 1996 -- the first full season with at least one Wild Card in each league -- 117 of 162 eventual division champions held at least a share of their division lead entering Aug. 1. That’s 72 percent of division winners.

Take note, Orioles, Guardians, Astros (ahead by percentage points), Phillies, Brewers and Dodgers fans -- those are the teams that currently lead their divisions.

Last season, four of the six division leaders on Aug. 1 went on to win their divisions. In the American League, the Orioles and Twins each won their divisions, while the Rangers, who led the AL West entering August, made the postseason as a Wild Card. In the NL, the Braves and Dodgers won their divisions, but the Reds, who led the Central entering August, missed the playoffs.

Since 1996, 17 of the 27 World Series winners, excluding 2020, led their divisions entering August. The Rangers did so last year, although they did not go on to win the division.

If you were wondering, there have been four seasons in this span where all six division champions held at least a share of their division lead entering August: 1996-97, ‘99 and 2019.

Big leads

Four of the six divisions feature a lead of at least four and a half games: the Guardians by six in the AL Central, Brewers by five in the NL Central, Dodgers by four and a half in the NL West and Phillies by six and a half in the NL East.

This is the fifth time since 1996 that four teams have division leads of at least four and a half games entering August, per the Elias Sports Bureau. It also happened in 2019, 2004, 2002 and 1998.

Looking at the NL, it’s the third time in that span that all three divisions in one league were led by at least four and a half games entering August, joining the NL in 2002 and AL in 1999.

This year’s leaders

Of this year’s current division leaders entering August, each has had at least a share of that lead entering August at least one other time since 2018.

Each of the current leaders has won its division at least once since 2022 – except the Phillies, who last did so in 2011.

What’s next

October is quickly drawing closer, but there’s still plenty of baseball left to be played. But fans of the six division leaders can take some comfort in knowing that historically, almost three quarters of those teams have gone on to win their divisions. And for fans of teams that aren’t in playoff position, there’s still plenty of hope -- while 72% of these teams go on to win their divisions, that means 28% do not, too.

Now, we all get to watch and see what happens.