The division winners that will (and won't) repeat in 2024

Quick trivia question, trusted readers: How many teams repeated as division champions last year? That’s to say, who won division titles in both 2022 and 2023?

The answer is three. The Braves won the NL East (by 14 more games than they did in 2022), the Dodgers won the NL West (by six games fewer, though still by 16 games) and the Astros won the AL West (in a tie, after winning it by 16 games in 2022). That is par for the course. Here are the number of defending champs to win again each of the previous five years:

2022: Two
2021: Two
2020: Three
2019: Three
2018: Three

• Final 2023 standings

So, four out of the last six seasons, we’ve had three repeat division champions, a particularly sticky number when you consider the truncated 2020 season. So as we head into 2024, should we expect to see three again?

Here’s a look at the six division champions from last year, ranked by the likelihood that they’ll win their division again. Repeating: It’s not so easy to do. (Each club is listed with its 2023 record and margin of victory in the division.)

1. Dodgers (NL West)
100-62 (16 games over D-backs)

The Dodgers would be a terrific choice to top this list no matter what they did this offseason, considering they’ve won 10 of the last 11 NL West titles. But, uh, well … the Dodgers have indeed done some stuff this offseason. This 100-win team added Tyler Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Teoscar Hernández and a certain two-time MVP named Shohei Ohtani. The best player they lost off last year’s team is J.D. Martinez, who is replaced in the DH spot, of course, by Ohtani.

• How will Dodgers mix and match outfield pieces in '24?

And it’s not as if the rest of the division made huge steps toward the Dodgers. The Padres don’t have Juan Soto anymore and may lose Blake Snell, too. The Giants finished under .500 and saw top free-agent targets Ohtani and Yamamoto pick the Dodgers instead. The D-backs have made some additions to a team that did go to the World Series last year, but they are also a team that finished 16 games behind Los Angeles.

The Dodgers ran away from everyone in this division last year, they got tons better in the offseason and no clear NL West challenger has emerged. It was not difficult to rank them No. 1.

2. Braves (NL East)
104-58 (14 games over Phillies)

You can tell how confident the Braves are about their ability to reach the playoffs in 2024 by their offseason approach. They didn’t make big, sweeping, change-the-foundation-of-your-team moves. Rather, they made tweaks. These are the sort of transactions that won’t make much difference over the course of a 162-game season but could make all the difference in a short series in the cold of October. You probably can’t count on Chris Sale for 200 innings anymore, but for 15 innings with everything on the line? Not a lot of guys you’d like out there more.

The Braves have won six straight division titles, but they’ve never won their division by as many games as they did in 2023. With their core in place, they’re clearly not reinventing the wheel here. They’ll face steeper division competition than the Dodgers will, if just because the Mets’ 2024 season can’t be nearly as difficult as their 2023 was, and the Phillies will be extra motivated after their NLCS loss to the D-backs. But there’s a reason everyone was chasing the Braves a year ago. It’s the same reason they’ll all be chasing them again this year.

• Newly acquired Sale signs 2-year deal with Braves

3. Astros (AL West)
90-72 (Won tiebreaker with Rangers)

Speaking of streaks, the last full season in which the Astros didn’t win the AL West was 2016, which was Alex Bregman's rookie season. It has been a while.

There have been signs that the Astros’ grip on the division – and, really, the whole AL – may be loosening, though. First there’s the fact that their division (and intrastate) rival, the Rangers, just won their first World Series after beating Houston in a seven-game ALCS. But the core of this team remains as strong as any in baseball: Altuve/Bregman/Alvarez/Abreu/Tucker is a gauntlet for any pitcher, they’ll have Justin Verlander atop that rotation for a full season this time around and now Josh Hader looms in the back of the bullpen.

This is a tough call – there’s a big gap between Nos. 2 and 3 on this list – particularly with the Rangers looking just as good as they did last year (when they tied the Astros atop this division). But with as many pitching injuries as the Rangers have to start the season, we’ll go with the Astros. Really, though, each of the last four divisions on this list are very much up in the air.

4. Twins (AL Central)
87-75 (9 games over Tigers)

Are the Twins the least imposing team on this list? They probably are. They won only 87 games last year, they lost two of their best starting pitchers in Sonny Gray (to the Cardinals) and Kenta Maeda (to those division-rival Tigers), and they have made minimal additions to the roster.

So why are the Twins still this high on the list? It’s their division. Detroit is probably Minnesota’s biggest competition in the AL Central, unless you think the exact same Guardians who won 76 games in 2023 can somehow gain 10-plus wins in 2024. If you believe the Tigers – who have been more aggressive this offseason – will be that much better this year, maybe you think they can make a charge.

Still, the Twins had a nine-game cushion last year, and that was despite getting very little from two of the players expected to lead the team: Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton. Minnesota also could get a full season this time around from Royce Lewis (the No. 1 overall Draft pick in 2017), who has battled injuries but was fantastic in 58 games as a rookie last year. Minnesota still could take a step forward in 2024 – but it might not need to in this division.

5. Orioles (AL East)
101-61 (2 games over Rays)

Even without any starting pitching additions this offseason – and one supposes there is still time – the Orioles should be considered the favorite in the AL East. They’ve got all the young players they had last year, all with another year’s worth of experience, plus at some point they’ll add Jackson Holliday, who may have more talent than any of those players. (They barely even have space for Colton Cowser, Heston Kjerstad and Coby Mayo, all of whom, like Holliday at No. 1, rank among MLB Pipeline’s top 27 prospects.)

• How can Orioles build on 101-win season?

But the lack of pitching additions (aside from closer Craig Kimbrel) has removed a lot of margin for error, particularly in this division, which has some highly motivated competitors. The Blue Jays are in danger of having their Vlad Jr.-led core go their entire prime without winning a playoff game. The Red Sox have a new leadership group eager to wash the bad taste out of their fans’ mouths. The Rays have loads of pitching, as always, and two future lineup mainstays in Curtis Mead and Junior Caminero about to become the new pieces they build around. And the Yankees, under immense pressure after a disappointing 2023, landed Juan Soto (who is looking to make the best possible free-agent case) and Marcus Stroman.

Everything mostly went right for the Orioles in 2023. Can we count on that in 2024? The O’s sure seem to be counting on it. The rest of the division is going to make it tough.

6. Brewers (NL Central)
92-70 (9 games over Cubs)

It turns out that the Brewers did not in fact dismantle their roster this offseason. Corbin Burnes is still here. So is Devin Williams. So is Freddy Peralta. So is Christian Yelich. So is Willy Adames. Despite all the rumors and scuttlebutt, there was not an exodus of talent following manager Craig Counsell out the door after he left for the Cubs. In fact, there’s talent coming in, most notably No. 2 overall prospect Jackson Chourio, who looks ready to step into the lineup on Opening Day after inking a record-setting contract. Plus, if Milwaukee’s reported deal with Rhys Hoskins goes through, that should provide the club with a much-needed middle-of-the-order bat.

But the Brewers are still the logical pick at the bottom of this list. Their rotation and bullpen both look considerably thinner than last season, which means they’ll be relying more on a lineup that, fair to say, isn’t always the most reliable or productive. And it remains to be seen if new skipper Pat Murphy is as adept as Counsell was at squeezing the most out of his roster.

The division also should be much tougher than it was in 2023. The Reds have added to a core that is oozing with talent. The Cubs have their old manager and have added key pieces in Shōta Imanaga and Michael Busch – and they may not be done. The Pirates should be better, and younger, than they were in 2023, and remember, they won more games last year than they have since 2018. And the Cardinals can’t possibly repeat the nightmare they went through last year. This division feels like a total tossup. It could go the Brewers’ way again. But the path to victory looks much narrower.