Breaking down this winter's free agents into 5 tiers

The baseball world -- and possibly the sports world -- has never seen a free agent such as Shohei Ohtani. But only one team will enter Spring Training with the presumptive American League Most Valuable Player on its roster, leaving the other 29 looking elsewhere for talent.

Below is a list of 99 available players and where they rank in the hierarchy of this year’s free-agent crop. Players are listed alphabetically by tier, and ages are listed as of Opening Day 2024.

Tier 1

Shohei Ohtani, RHP/DH, age 29: This might be a bit unorthodox, but we’re giving Ohtani his own tier. Despite not being able to pitch until 2025, Ohtani will make an immediate impact on a lineup in 2024, then add an All-Star-caliber arm to the rotation the following season. Even after undergoing surgery to repair a left UCL tear, Ohtani is in position to land the biggest free-agent deal in Major League history.

Tier 2

Cody Bellinger, 1B/OF, age 28: Bellinger bet on himself with a one-year deal in 2023, and his gamble paid off. His .307/.356/.525 slash line, 26 home runs and 97 RBIs equaled his best season since 2019, setting him up for a nice multiyear deal.

Matt Chapman, 3B, age 30: Chapman’s offense took a hit in 2023 -- his 17 homers and 54 RBIs were career lows over a full season -- but he remains a stellar defensive player at the hot corner. His 3.5 fWAR ranked seventh among all MLB third basemen this season.

Sonny Gray, RHP, age 34: Don’t let Gray’s 8-8 record fool you; his 2.79 ERA ranked second in the AL, putting him in position for a top-three finish in Cy Young Award voting. Gray has a 2.90 ERA over 303 2/3 innings since the start of 2022.

Josh Hader, LHP, age 29: Hader’s rocky 2022 is a distant memory after the southpaw posted a 1.28 ERA with 85 strikeouts in 56 1/3 innings this past season. Hader’s deal should establish a new record for free-agent relievers.

J.D. Martinez, DH, age 36: Martinez only played 113 games in 2023, but he belted 33 homers with 103 RBIs while posting an .893 OPS. Even at 36, the slugger is an impact hitter who will help any lineup.

Jordan Montgomery, LHP, age 31: Montgomery has been one of the most consistent starters in the Majors over the past three years, posting a 3.48 ERA in 94 starts since the beginning of 2021. The lefty was excellent (2.79 ERA) after being acquired by the Rangers at the Trade Deadline and raised his stock even more during Texas’ World Series run.

Aaron Nola, RHP, age 30: Nola’s regular season was spotty, but he reminded us in the postseason why he’s one of the best starters on the market. He hasn’t thrown fewer than 180 innings in a full season since 2017.

Blake Snell, LHP, age 31: Snell led all MLB starters with a 2.25 ERA, overcoming a brutal start (1-6, 5.40 ERA in his first nine outings) to go on an epic run (13-3, 1.20 ERA in his final 23 starts). Snell will likely win his second career Cy Young Award -- his first in the National League -- though he’s pitched into the seventh inning only 36 times in 191 career starts.

Jorge Soler, OF/DH, age 32: Soler came to play in his platform season, crushing 36 home runs in 137 games. The 2021 World Series MVP opted out of the final year and $9 million of his contract with the Marlins and should be a solid option for clubs seeking some pop in the middle of their lineup.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto, RHP, age 25: Like any player coming to the Majors from Japan, it’s a mystery how Yamamoto will make the transition. But the right-hander has been the best pitcher (player?) in Japan for the past few years and should be a difference-maker for his next team.

Tier 3

Tim Anderson, SS, age 30: Anderson had a down year in 2023, slashing .245/.286/.296 with one home run and 25 RBIs in 123 games. The White Sox declined his option, but unlike the past two years, the free-agent shortstop market is weak. It won’t be surprising if a club takes a chance on a bounce-back year from the two-time All-Star.

Harrison Bader, OF, age 29: Bader’s talent has never been a question, but the injury-prone outfielder has struggled to stay on the field. He hasn’t played more than 103 games since 2019.

Jeimer Candelario, 3B, age 30: Candelario had a career year in 2023, hitting 22 home runs with 70 RBIs and an .807 OPS with the Nationals and Cubs. He doesn’t offer the same hot-corner defense as Chapman, but his bat was more consistent last season.

Aroldis Chapman, LHP, age 36: A subpar 2022 season caused some to question whether Chapman had lost too much on his fastball, but he ranked in the 99th or 100th percentile in fastball velocity, whiff percentage and strikeout percentage in '23.

Jack Flaherty, RHP, age 28: Flaherty was once considered among the best young pitchers in the game -- he finished fourth in NL Cy Young voting in 2019 as a 23-year-old -- but the past two years have been bumpy. Flaherty has a 4.84 ERA in 38 games (35 starts) for the Cardinals and Orioles since the start of 2022.

Lucas Giolito, RHP, age 29: Giolito had a solid first half with the White Sox, setting himself up as one of the biggest Trade Deadline acquisitions. But the righty went 1-5 with a 6.89 ERA in six starts with the Angels before being picked up on waivers by the Guardians, for whom he went 1-4 with a 7.04 ERA in six starts. Still, Giolito should be pursued by several pitching-needy teams.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr., LF, age 30: Gurriel had a big bounce-back season in 2023, hitting 24 home runs with 82 RBIs and a .772 OPS in 145 games for Arizona. The 30-year-old made his first All-Star team this season.

Teoscar Hernández, RF, age 31: Hernández’s overall numbers looked solid enough this season -- 26 homers, 93 RBIs, .741 OPS -- but he did a lot of that damage with two big months, combining to hit 13 homers with 40 RBIs and an OPS of roughly 1.000 in June and August. Suitors will have to decide whether his huge 2020-21 seasons were outliers or a sign of what’s possible.

Jordan Hicks, RHP, age 27: Hicks raised his free-agent profile after his trade to Toronto, where he cut down his walks while posting a 2.63 ERA in 25 appearances. The right-hander has closing experience, but he's more likely to be viewed as a solid setup option.

Rhys Hoskins, 1B, age 31: A torn left ACL at the end of Spring Training cost Hoskins the entire 2023 season, but the slugger is expected to be at full strength next year. He hasn’t hit fewer than 27 home runs in a full season in his career.

Shōta Imanaga, LHP, age 30: Imanaga started the gold medal game for Team Japan in this year’s World Baseball Classic, kicking off a year that saw him go 7-5 with a 2.66 ERA for the Yokohama BayStars. The 30-year-old has been one of the best pitchers in Japan since he broke into the Central League in 2016, posting more than a strikeout per inning throughout his career.

Clayton Kershaw, LHP, age 36: Kershaw was one of the best starters in the game when he was on the mound in 2023, posting a 2.46 ERA in 24 starts. But shoulder surgery will sideline the three-time Cy Young winner until sometime next summer, so the Dodgers -- or whoever signs him -- won’t be able to include him in their plans for at least the first half of the season.

Craig Kimbrel, RHP, age 35: After a pair of subpar years from 2019-20, it looked like Kimbrel’s best days were behind him, but the closer rebounded with three strong seasons, reestablishing himself as a top relief option. With 94 punchouts in 69 innings, Kimbrel ranked near the top of the Majors in strikeout percentage.

Jung Hoo Lee, CF, age 25: The 25-year-old outfielder is expected to be posted by the Kiwoom Heroes, even after ankle surgery ended his season in July. Lee, the 2022 KBO League MVP who hit .429 for Team Korea in the '23 World Baseball Classic, has a career .340/.407/.491 slash line in seven seasons in Korea and is considered to be an above-average defender in center field.

Whit Merrifield, INF/OF, age 35: Merrifield won’t find himself among the league leaders in hits as he used to, but he remains a very useful player. Merrifield -- a three-time All-Star since 2019 -- can play all over the field and hit 11 home runs with 67 RBIs and 26 stolen bases in 2023, ranking in the top 20 percent of the league in strikeout percentage and sprint speed.

Hector Neris, RHP, age 34: A former closer in Philly, Neris spent the past two years in a setup role for the Astros, posting a 2.69 ERA in 141 appearances. His 2023 season was exceptional, as he pitched to a 1.71 ERA in 71 games.

Hunter Renfroe, OF, age 32: Renfroe has played for six teams since the start of 2019, hitting at least 26 home runs in five of his past six full seasons -- the lone exception coming in 2023, when he hit 20 in 140 games.

David Robertson, RHP, age 38: The veteran reliever was one of the few bright spots for the Mets in 2023, posting a 2.05 ERA after taking over for injured closer Edwin Díaz. Robertson struggled after being traded to the Marlins (5.06 ERA in 22 appearances), but his solid track record will make him an appealing option for clubs seeking short-term bullpen help.

Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP, age 30: Rodriguez pitched well this season, posting a 3.30 ERA in 26 starts that prompted him to trigger the opt-out clause in his contract. Even after missing nearly six weeks with a finger injury, Rodriguez -- who nixed a trade to the Dodgers at the Deadline -- should land a deal in excess of the three years and $49 million he had left on his contract with the Tigers.

Yariel Rodriguez, RHP, age 27: A starter-turned-reliever, Rodriguez played in Cuba from 2015-2020, then joined the Chunichi Dragons in Japan’s Central League. Rodriguez posted a 1.15 ERA and 27.5 percent strikeout rate in 56 appearances for Chunichi in 2022, but after pitching for Team Cuba in this year’s World Baseball Classic, he chose not to return to Japan, instead preparing himself for a chance to move to the Majors. Chunichi granted him his release in early October, paving the way for him to come to MLB.

Marcus Stroman, RHP, age 32: Which Stroman will his next team be signing? Will it be the pitcher who went 9-6 with a 2.96 ERA during an All-Star first half? Or the injury-riddled pitcher who went 1-3 with an 8.63 ERA while making only six starts after the break?

Michael Wacha, RHP, age 32: Wacha has turned his career around during the past two years, going 25-6 with a 3.27 ERA since the beginning of 2022. He isn’t an innings-eater -- he threw only 261 2/3 in 47 starts during that stretch -- but he should land a multiyear deal based on his recent work.

Tier 4

Brandon Belt, 1B/DH, age 35

Paul DeJong, SS, age 30

Adam Duvall, OF/DH, age 35

Mitch Garver, C, age 33

Kyle Gibson, RHP, age 36

Randal Grichuk, OF, age 32

Liam Hendriks, RHP, age 35

Kiké Hernández, INF/OF, age 32

Joe Kelly, RHP, age 35

Kevin Kiermaier, CF, age 33

Michael Lorenzen, RHP, age 32

Seth Lugo, RHP, age 34

Lance Lynn, RHP, age 36

Kenta Maeda, RHP, age 35

Sean Manaea, LHP, age 32

Nick Martinez, RHP, age 33

Wade Miley, LHP, age 37

James Paxton, LHP, age 35

Joc Pederson, OF, age 31

Martín Pérez, LHP, age 32

Tommy Pham, OF, age 36

Jurickson Profar, INF/OF, age 31

Eddie Rosario, OF, age 32

Hyun Jin Ryu, LHP, age 37

Luis Severino, RHP, age 30

Will Smith, LHP, age 34

Robert Stephenson, RHP, age 31

Brent Suter, LHP, age 34

Justin Turner, INF, age 39

Joey Votto, 1B/DH, age 40

Tier 5

Elvis Andrus, INF, age 35

Matt Barnes, RHP, age 33

Andrew Chafin, LHP, age 33

Mike Clevinger, RHP, age 33

Brandon Crawford, SS, age 37

C.J. Cron, 1B, age 34

Johnny Cueto, RHP, age 38

Josh Donaldson, 3B, age 38

Eduardo Escobar, INF, age 35

Chris Flexen, RHP, age 29

Adam Frazier, 2B/OF, age 32

Jarlín García, LHP, age 31

Brad Hand, LHP, age 34

Aaron Hicks, OF, age 34

Brad Keller, RHP, age 28

Tony Kemp, INF/OF, age 32

Isiah Kiner-Falefa, INF/OF, age 29

Corey Kluber, RHP, age 37

Evan Longoria, 3B, age 38

Aaron Loup, LHP, age 36

Collin McHugh, RHP, age 36

Adalberto Mondesi, SS, age 28

Frankie Montas, RHP, age 31

Mike Moustakas, INF, age 35

Adam Ottavino, RHP, age 38

David Peralta, OF, age 36

Amed Rosario, INF, age 28

Noah Syndergaard, RHP, age 31

Michael A. Taylor, OF, age 33

Gio Urshela, INF, age 32

Joey Wendle, INF, age 33

Justin Wilson, LHP, age 36

Kirby Yates, RHP, age 37