Minors stat races coming down to the wire

For the majority of the 120 full-season Minor League teams, the 2021 regular season comes to an end on Sept. 19. After going a year without Minor League Baseball at all in 2020, it feels like the 2021 season has flown by, meaning we only have a few weeks to savor the nation's pastime at its lower professional levels.

Some of the morsels left to enjoy: the races to lead all of the Minors in the most prominent statistical categories.

Stats don't care about prospect rankings or age or rookie status. They tell us hard and cold who performed best from May through September at Low-A, High-A, Double-A, Triple-A and often a mixture of all four. One thing to note in these races: stats from the Triple-A Final Stretch -- a competition meant to make up for lost games back in the spring and to extend the Minors' top level through to early October -- will count toward the regular season, so players at the Minors' top level might have an advantage in some cases, particularly the counting stats.

Here are the Minor League stats races worth following in the dwindling days and weeks ahead. All stats are through Wednesday's games:

Home runs
Griffin Conine (35) vs. MJ Melendez (34)

This race has drawn the most attention and for good reason. Conine -- son of Mr. Marlin Jeff Conine -- is playing his first full season in the Miami system after having been acquired from the Blue Jays last September, and he’s taken off with 35 blasts in only 98 games between High-A Beloit and Double-A Pensacola.

Melendez is now a Top 100 prospect, only two years after he hit .164 with nine homers in 110 games at Class A Advanced, in part because of this power surge. Thirty-four of his 66 career homers have come in 2021 alone between stops at Double-A and Triple-A. The fact that the Royals backstop is now in Omaha might give him a leg up in this race because of his anticipated participation in the Triple-A Final Stretch. Perhaps the Fish could move Conine as well to give him a fighting chance, but his .180 average and 43.6 percent K rate at Double-A highlight how much more there is to hitting than slugging homers.

One more interesting twist here -- it’s personal in the best of ways. Both sluggers’ fathers are coaches at Florida International University. Mervyl Melendez serves as head coach while Jeff Conine is associate head coach for the Panthers. Both Melendez and Conine are expected to work out together around campus this offseason. There could be some big bragging rights involved.

Batting average
Justin Yurchak (.367) vs. Henry Ramos (.362) vs. José Marmolejos (.360)

These are some gaudy averages to be sure, but all three are in a class of their own. No other qualified full-season hitter entered Thursday with an average above .343. Even if someone outside this group went on a tear, that’s a lot of ground to make up.

It’s even more impressive that Yurchak leads the Minors, considering he’s the only one of the three that hasn’t spent his 2021 in the hitter-friendly Triple-A West. The Dodgers prospect batted .356 in 62 games at High-A Great Lakes and kept on going with a .411 mark in 14 games at Double-A Tulsa. He has been on the IL since Aug. 20, however. Marmolejos also won’t be improving his Minor League average soon, though you won't find him complaining -- he’s in the Majors with the Mariners. That leaves the 29-year-old Ramos as the only active batting title contender as he continues to get at-bats at Triple-A Reno.

Strikeouts
Ryan Murphy (156) vs. Cade Cavalli (154) vs. Carson Ragsdale (150)

When it comes to name recognition, there might be a favorite involved here for the prospect community. Ranked as MLB Pipeline’s No. 41 overall prospect, Cavalli has enjoyed an impressive first full season in the Nationals system, having climbed three levels thanks to his ability to rack up K’s. He’s now at Triple-A Rochester, which could act as a double-edged sword. On one hand, he could get an additional two starts from the Triple-A Final Stretch. On the other, his Triple-A debut (3 IP, 5 ER, 3 K) last week was an indication of how hard the transition to the Minors’ top level can be.

Don’t get us wrong; ranked Giants prospects Murphy (No. 21) and Ragsdale (No. 25) could win this outright themselves. With two above-average pitches in his fastball and slider, Murphy thrives as a consistent strike thrower that has worked well at Low-A and High-A. Ragsdale has racked up the K’s at Low-A San Jose solely but has thrived there with a wicked plus curveball. Their separate ascents to the leaderboard are reminders that there are many ways to get punchouts in 2021.

ERA
Taj Bradley (1.96) vs. Louie Varland (1.98) vs. Logan Allen (2.14) vs. Peyton Battenfield (2.15) vs. Xzavion Curry (2.15) vs. Jayden Murray (2.16)

If any category could feature an off-the-board winner, it’s in the fickle ERA category. Just this week, Murray was nearly tied with Bradley at the top -- they had given up the same amount of earned runs but were separated by just one-third of an inning -- but tumbled down after giving up three earned runs in four innings on Wednesday. One average outing down the stretch could be enough to keep a previous contender out of the race, and likewise, one string of season-ending scoreless starts could be enough to thrust a newbie to the title.

One interesting theme here: the list of six ERA heavyweights contains two Rays prospects (Bradley, Murray), two Cleveland prospects (Allen, Curry), one prospect that was traded from the Rays to Cleveland in the middle of the season (Battenfield) and a Twins prospect (Varland). Ranked No. 6 in the Tampa Bay system, Bradley might be the one to watch even if he wasn’t atop the list. He’s throwing in the mid-90s and features a plus slider in his four-pitch mix. The ERA crown would be a massive achievement to end his breakout 2021.

Extra-base hits
Bobby Witt Jr. (60) vs. Vinnie Pasquantino (58) vs. Nick Pratto (58) vs. Anthony Volpe (57) vs. Orelvis Martinez (55)

We circle back to the hitting group because of all the big names, four of which are Top 100 prospects. Of course, Kansas City fans will be quick to note that Witt, Pasquantino and Pratto all play in the Royals system, further highlighting how big of a success the organization’s hitting program has been in 2021.

What a cap this would be, particularly to Witt, who enters Thursday with 28 homers, four triples and 28 doubles between Double-A and Triple-A. MLB Pipeline’s No. 3 overall prospect came into 2021 with a ton of hype, and he’s matched that with even more power than was to be expected from a 21-year-old at the upper levels. He and Pratto both might get extra time to boost their numbers because of their Triple-A statuses. Then again, maybe Witt finally takes himself out of the running with a move to Kansas City as well. One more massive storyline to follow in the final weeks of the 2021 Minor League season.