Mikolas planning on using long winter to retool, refocus

CINCINNATI -- On the verge of missing the playoffs for the first time since 2018, the Cardinals likely have a long, cold winter ahead of them as they work to rebuild a pitching staff that has mostly fallen flat this season.

Miles Mikolas, one of two starters under contract for 2024 after he signed a two-year, $40 million extension during Spring Training, will need that extra time in the offseason for all the work he plans to do while reevaluating and revamping his pitching plan going forward.

Something has been off all season, as Mikolas pointed out on Sunday following the Cardinals’ 7-1 loss to the Reds at Great American Ball Park, and he’s had more issues than he’s had answers. On one hand, he’s been a model of durability again for a Cardinals staff in need of consistency, but on the other, his numbers point to signs of trouble. His whiff rate is in the bottom 1 percentile in MLB, and his strikeout rate has dropped from 19 percent last season to 15.6 percent this season. He’s seen a jump in his hard-hit rate (from 36 percent last season to 41.9 percent this season), while his ground-ball rate has plunged (45.9 percent last season to 38.6 percent this season).

Hence, Mikolas’ plan to go to work on his arsenal this offseason.

“It’s been a frustrating year, and I’ve been trying some things here and there, and some things work, and some things don’t,” said Mikolas, who saw his season ERA rise to 4.75 after allowing five runs (two homers) on seven hits and one walk over 5 1/3 innings. “This winter, I’ll have some time, and it’ll be a good offseason for me going in and nailing down [the problems] and getting back to basics.

“A lot of it might be location, but it’s one of those things that I’ve got to look at this winter,” Mikolas continued. “Obviously, [improvement] is going to be my focus, maybe getting more swing and miss and some different shapes on my pitches, moving around on the mound and with my arm angles to give hitters a tougher look.”

Mikolas broke an eight-start winless streak earlier in the week when he beat the Braves -- a game where he was blessed with nine runs of support while he was in the game. “Give me nine runs and Gold Glove defense behind me, and I’m pretty good,” Mikolas joked.

Actually, a lack of run support has played a major role in Mikolas’ 7-11 record this season. The Redbirds have scored three runs or fewer in 24 of his 31 starts this season and one or no runs 13 times. When the Cardinals erupted for nine runs while he was in the game on Tuesday, it equaled the same amount of run support he had gotten over his previous four starts combined.

It didn’t help Mikolas’ cause on Sunday that three of the Cardinals’ best sluggers -- Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Gorman and Willson Contreras -- were held out of action after the squad had already secured the series victory with wins on Friday and Saturday. In the end, the Cardinals mustered just one hit -- a single by catcher Andrew Knizner to plate their only run of the day. Regardless, the Cardinals have impressively won four of six on the road trip against two teams fighting for playoff positioning.

“I think [the players] are in a good place in terms of competing,” manager Oliver Marmol said. “They’re going about it the right way, they’re going about it with a lot of enthusiasm, and the style of play has been smart and aggressive. The attention to detail has been there, and I credit that group a ton for not giving in. You walk into that clubhouse or watch us play and you wouldn’t be able to tell if we’re in last place or first place.”

Mikolas made his 31st start of the season on Sunday, making it the fourth season where he hit at least 30 starts (2023, ‘22, ‘19 and ‘18). He dealt with a right forearm injury that made him miss the shortened 2020 season and most of 2021, when he only made nine starts. He’s also pitched at least 175 innings in each of those four seasons. While that is certainly a source of pride for the 6-foot-4, 230-pound Mikolas, he knows he needs to be better in 2024, when the Cardinals could need him to lead the staff.

Mikolas said all signs point to him being better come next year. After all, he was a National League All-Star in 2018, had a rough season in 2019, struggled with injuries for two seasons and then made the NL All-Star team again in 2022.

“Last year, I had a good year compared to this year,” he said. “I’ll go back to 2018 and ’19, when I had full seasons, and see what worked. I’ll take those four years -- good, bad, good, bad. If you’re taking the on/off thing into account, next year I should be great. So, place your bets now on me having a pretty good season next year.”