A look at storylines that will dominate 2nd half

Most baseball fans consider the All-Star break the midpoint of the season, but of course, it is not in fact the actual midpoint of the season. By mid-July, some teams have already played 100 games.

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The real halfway point of the season? Right about now. Three teams had already played their 81st game heading into Tuesday, and everyone is set to do so by the end of the weekend. In other words, we’re nearly halfway home. It happened so fast.

So, now that we are at the actual middle of the year, we thought it might be an excellent time to take stock of where we’ve been, where we are and where we might be going. Based off what we’ve learned from the first half of the season, here are seven big questions the second half of the season is going to have to answer. It’s going to be a blast to see where all this ends.

1. Who wins the Yankees-Orioles battle?
No offense to the Red Sox, who have turned it on a bit lately, but the AL East faceoff between two of the best teams in baseball – teams that have some real historical antipathy for one another – may make for one of the best races we’ve seen in this division in many years. This is particularly true because the advantage for the team that wins the division over the one that doesn’t is substantial: It’s the difference between getting a weekend off at the start of the playoffs and having to face a very feisty Wild Card team in a best-of-three set.

The Yankees have two top AL MVP Award candidates in Juan Soto and Aaron Judge, but the Orioles have one of their own in Gunnar Henderson. Both teams also have legitimate World Series aspirations and some real postseason demons to exorcise – there’s just so much on the line for each. They’ve got a three-game series in the Bronx looming in the season’s final week, and it may well decide the division – if not more.

2. Which two-time MVP takes the lead in the NL?
We just mentioned the AL MVP frontrunners, but what about the NL MVP race? It’s looking awfully familiar. Now that (one-time) MVP Mookie Betts will miss a couple of months with a broken wrist, he’s out. That sure makes it look like your favorites are two guys who have already won two MVP Awards: The Dodgers’ Shohei Ohtani and the Phillies’ Bryce Harper.

Now, it’s possible an Elly De La Cruz or someone else gets scorching hot in the second half, but at present, those two players seem to be separating themselves from the pack. Only four players who have won three MVPs or more aren’t in the Hall of Fame: Albert Pujols and Mike Trout (who aren’t eligible yet), and Barry Bonds and Alex Rodriguez (whom some voters have, uh, issues with). Barring any similar issues, a third MVP is a ticket straight to Cooperstown. Which one of those players will cash it?

3. Are the Astros going to turn this around?
On May 8, the last-place Astros lost their fourth straight game, to fall 12 games under .500 and 8 1/2 games out of first in the AL West. On June 18, just a week ago, they were 10 games behind the first-place Mariners. This is one of the most dominant franchises in baseball over the last decade – this is when we remind you that the Astros have made an absolutely absurd seven ALCS appearances in a row – and they were floundering.

But nobody took the Astros out when they had a chance. A sweep of the Orioles over the weekend made Houston 26-16 since that early nadir, MLB’s fourth-best record over that span heading into Tuesday. They’ve now crawled all the way back to two games under .500 and have inched back into the playoff chase. They’ve looked much more like the Astros we’ve come to know over the last couple of weeks, and they’ve been doing so without Kyle Tucker, their best player, who remains on the IL with a right shin contusion. They’re like a zombie, ever lurching forward, even when you think they’re long dead. Can they sneak back in the ALCS a stunning eighth straight time?

4. How much Paul Skenes do we get?
The Pirates’ 22-year-old rookie pitching phenom has been all anyone could have hoped for and more. Not only has he exceeded expectations, Skenes seems to learn new tricks and improve with every appearance. His every start is appointment viewing. But he is still, alas, a young pitcher. The Pirates expect him to be in their rotation for many seasons – seasons when they may have considerably better rosters (particularly better lineups) than they have right now.

If the Pirates stay in the crowded NL Wild Card chase, then yes: Expect Skenes to pitch through the end of the year, though you can certainly imagine the Pirates giving him extra days off now and again. (Which they have already done.) But if the Pirates fall out of the race, will they shut him down to keep him healthy and fresh for a season when they have more reinforcements? Watching Skenes has been a gift for both Bucs fans and the rest of us all season. But the Pirates can hardly be blamed for keeping an eye on the long game here.

5. Who will emerge from these Wild Card scrums?
There appear to be clear favorites in most divisions at this point. In this order (of likelihood): The Dodgers, the Phillies, the Guardians, the Brewers, the Mariners, with the Yankees-Orioles winner taking the last spot. One or two of those may fall short, but that’s how it looks right now. But goodness, there are a lot of teams in the Wild Card races. The American League is slightly more settled: The Orioles and Twins are in good spots, the Red Sox and Royals are battling for the third spot and the Astros, Rays and Rangers will need to go on a few good runs to get back into the chase.

But the NL? Chaos. The Marlins and Rockies are out, and the Braves appear to be in, but everybody else, a whopping nine teams, from the Cardinals (three games over) to the Giants (five games under) are within four games of each other. The thing is, too, none of those teams looks all that different from any other: They’re all flawed, but they’re all competent. It’s tough to see how any team stands out, and thus impossible to make any predictions on who will fight their way into the last two spots behind the Braves. Your guess is as good as ours. It may just come down to who gets hot in the final week of the season – at just the right time.

6. Steven Kwan isn’t really going to hit .400, is he?
All right, no: The Guardians outfielder almost certainly won’t. But there is nothing quite like a chase for .400, however long it might last, as we saw last season with Luis Arraez. Kwan entered Tuesday at .389, albeit with not quite enough plate appearances to qualify for the official batting title. He’ll be there soon, though, and the way he has been hitting since returning from the injured list on May 31 (.457 in 18 games), he is at least giving himself a puncher’s chance. (And for a team that has been one of the best, most surprising stories in baseball, no less.) Kwan is also exactly the sort of exciting player who is giddily fun to root for. Whether he gets close or not, it’ll be a joy to watch him try.

7. Who will give up the ghost at the Deadline?
Certain teams, it’s increasingly clear, will be trading away talent before the July 30 Trade Deadline. The White Sox. The Rockies. The Marlins. The A’s. The Angels. But because of the bunched-up Wild Card races we mentioned earlier, many other teams are in that uncertain middle ground, close enough to a playoff spot to dream of October but with enough flaws that they can’t get too out over their skis.

Which teams are going to stick with it? Will the Mets stay hot enough to hang around? Will the Blue Jays stop banging their heads against the wall? Do the Rays finally become sellers? Do the Tigers turn to retooling? All it can take is one winning streak, or one losing skid, to change the entire dynamic. The next two weeks could tell us everything, and the answer will affect not only those clubs but also contenders hoping for a more robust list of available trade targets.