How 3 plays led Mets to victory over Brewers

NEW YORK -- The Mets took the scenic route to Sunday’s 5-2 victory over the Brewers at Citi Field, avoiding a series sweep despite Steven Matz -- who otherwise pitched brilliantly -- giving up a game-tying homer in the seventh. All that Mike Moustakas blast did was set up three final innings of intrigue, beginning with the Mets’ seventh-inning rally.

The Mets emptied their bench in the seventh and eighth innings, while also breaking from their usual bullpen formula. Here’s a look at how manager Mickey Callaway navigated the end game, through the lens of three plays that affected Sunday’s outcome most:

Davis hits RBI single

Inning: Bottom seventh

Win expectancy before the play: 64.1 percent

Win expectancy after the play: 83.3 percent

Net: +19.2 percent

With the go-ahead run on second base in a tie game in the seventh, Callaway made a series of three decisions to create the matchup he wanted. First, he burned Michael Conforto, his best available bench bat whom the Brewers intentionally walked. He then turned to Dominic Smith, prompting Brewers manager Craig Counsell to bring in a lefty, Alex Claudio. Callaway’s countermove was to send Smith back to the dugout and call on J.D. Davis, who ripped a first-pitch single through the left side.

“I knew my opportunity was coming,” Davis said, noting that he began warming for an appearance as soon as Claudio stood up in the Brewers’ bullpen.

Had Callaway used Smith instead of Conforto to pinch-hit for Keon Broxton at the beginning of the rally, he feared having to use the left-handed Conforto versus Claudio instead of the right-handed Davis. That’s because he could not have burned Conforto in the way he did Smith, needing Conforto to sub in for defense in the eighth and ninth innings.

“It worked out well,” Callaway said. “When the players get hits, it works out great.”

Lugo strikes out the side

Inning: Top eighth

Win expectancy before the play: 77.1 percent

Win expectancy after the play: 88.1 percent

Net: +11.0 percent

This is not a single play, but may as well have been for how quickly it unfolded. Rather than use regular setup man Jeurys Familia in a one-run game in the eighth, Callaway turned to Seth Lugo, who had not pitched since Wednesday. Lugo responded by buzzing through the Brewers in quick order, striking out Manny Pina, Orlando Arcia and Travis Shaw.

The move demonstrated a bit of flexibility in Callaway’s bullpen usage, after the manager spent much of April defining strict rules for the eighth and ninth innings. All it took was a rather specific set of circumstances: Callaway wanted to use Lugo because he had not appeared in a game in four days, because he had already warmed in the seventh inning and because Familia threw 21 pitches the night before.

Given all that, Lugo’s recent run of success -- a 2.08 ERA and 35 percent strikeout rate in his last eight games -- does not mean he’ll supplant Familia as the eighth-inning setup man anytime soon. The Mets believe Familia will rebound from his own struggles -- a 6.17 ERA in 12 games -- and they value using Lugo in more flexible, high-leverage spots.

“It’s not that we’re running from Familia,” Callaway said. “It’s just that we thought that was the best option for tonight.”

Nido plates a pair

Inning: Bottom eighth

Win expectancy before the play: 89.1 percent

Win expectancy after the play: 97.9 percent

Net: +8.8 percent

This was more of an organizational decision for the Mets, who designated Travis d’Arnaud for assignment and called up Tomas Nido before the game. Sure enough, the Mets loaded the bases in the eighth with only Nido left on their bench. Callaway called on the backup catcher, who ripped a two-run double down the line to take most of the remaining drama out of the game.

While Nido is more heralded for his defense behind the plate than his offense, he now has as many RBIs in seven plate appearances as d’Arnaud did in 25.

“It felt really good to come in and contribute and help the team win,” Nido said. “That’s what it’s all about.”