Breaking down intriguing Mets' camp battles 

This story was excerpted from Anthony DiComo’s Mets Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

JUPITER, Fla. -- It’s getting to be that time of year. The Mets have 26 roster spots and only a few up for grabs, as I detailed in our latest roster projection that was released Thursday. The competitions that do remain are becoming clearer in scope, with 51 players left in camp (down from a high of 68). Not all 51 are realistic candidates to make the team.

But who is? I’d like to go beyond that latest roster projection to dig into why I went in certain directions, particularly in the rotation and on the bench:

Rotation
José Buttó sure is making things interesting, isn’t he? Since the day Kodai Senga suffered a right shoulder injury that will keep him out for at least all of April, the fifth starter’s spot became Tylor Megill’s to lose. And Megill certainly hasn’t lost it, racking up 15 strikeouts over 12 spring innings with a 1.50 ERA. Mets officials have been impressed with Megill’s velocity -- he’s flashed 97 mph this spring -- and the depth of his pet project, a split-fingered fastball that he calls “The American Spork.” For all those reasons, Megill remains the obvious favorite.

But Buttó has also done nothing wrong in his bid to win the job himself. After also hitting 97 mph in another scoreless outing Thursday against a representative Cardinals lineup, Buttó said he didn’t even realize “that the ball was coming out at that velocity.” Consider it another data point in Buttó’s favor.

This has clearly become a two-pitcher race. Max Kranick, who could have inserted himself into the conversation with a strong spring, will instead start the season on the injured list due to a left hamstring strain. And Joey Lucchesi was delayed at the start of camp so he could spend more time building up his arm strength. It’s not quite there yet; Lucchesi finally debuted this week and was sitting 88-89 mph with his fastball, which opposing hitters attacked quite effectively.

One more thing to note with Buttó: Mets manager Carlos Mendoza has talked openly about potentially converting him into a multi-inning reliever, but it’s tough to see that happening right now for multiple reasons. One, the Mets already have too many out-of-options bullpen arms that they’d rather not pass through waivers, and carrying Buttó would mean jettisoning another from that list. Two, until prospects Christian Scott, Mike Vasil and Dom Hamel are ready, the Mets kind-of, sort-of need Buttó stretched out in the Minors in case another starter gets hurt.

Verdict: This will be Megill, but Buttó is making it a difficult choice.

Bench/DH
It’s better not to break this category down into old-school “infield” and “outfield” candidates, because everything on a modern bench -- particularly since the advent of the universal DH -- is interrelated. As things stand, the Mets have four locks or near-locks in Mark Vientos, Tyrone Taylor, Joey Wendle and Omar Narváez. While several other contenders remain in camp, the ones who have generated the most buzz are DJ Stewart, Ji Man Choi, Trayce Thompson and Zack Short.

First, to address Short: Mets officials like him. Opposing scouts like him. The problem is that his skillset as a glove-first, versatile infielder overlaps too fully with that of Wendle, who’s under a guaranteed contract. It would be gratuitous for the Mets to carry both. Barring injury, Short’s most realistic path to a roster spot is if the Mets decide Brett Baty needs more time in the Minors and won’t be starting at third base, after all. But even in that scenario, the team would theoretically become more intrigued by the idea of an outside addition, such as J.D. Davis.

So Short is probably out. Same goes for Thompson, who had a hot start to camp but has since slumped. That leaves Stewart (the incumbent) and Choi (a newcomer). Both are left-handed sluggers. Stewart was white-hot after the Trade Deadline last August but ice-cold in September, and he’s carried that slump over into Spring Training. Choi is coming off a poor partial season in the Majors, but his underlying numbers suggest he was unlucky. The potential tiebreaker is that Stewart has a Minor League option left and Choi does not. In fact, the latter has a contract out at the end of March, which could be just the push the Mets need to carry him.

And before you ask: Yes, Luke Voit is in a similar situation as Choi, but he’s right-handed like Vientos, who figures to receive the lion’s share of DH reps. Voit needed to hit his way onto this roster, full stop. He simply has not done so.

Verdict: Choi feels particularly buzzy right now, but this competition will last for the remainder of camp.

Bullpen
I broke this situation down more fully in a recent story on Mets.com, but the CliffsNotes are as follows: the Mets have six bullpen locks and two empty spots. Those are likely to go to two of the 40-man roster pitchers who are on the bubble and out of options: Phil Bickford, Yohan Ramírez, Sean Reid-Foley and Michael Tonkin.

Scouts around Florida see Reid-Foley and Tonkin as perhaps the most useful of that quartet right now, but it’s tough to ignore the pure stuff of both Bickford and Ramírez. Whichever two don’t make the team will need to clear waivers for the Mets to retain them.

Verdict: This is likely down to four pitchers competing for two spots. Whomever the Mets cut might not clear waivers.