How far will Scherzer-Verlander duo carry Mets in 2023?

PORT ST. LUCIE, Fla. -- The Mets did not emerge from Spring Training unscathed. Injuries disrupted their best-laid pitching plans, forcing the team to proceed to Opening Day in Miami with a bit less depth than it initially possessed. That happens. For most teams, it’s inevitable.

Rather than focus on the losses of Edwin Díaz and José Quintana, the Mets are instead looking forward to the season from a wider lens. The bones of a team that won 101 games remain firmly in place. The lineup is healthy. The rotation is stocked with multiple three-time Cy Young Award winners. The bullpen still contains enough oomph to carry the Mets at least through the first portion of the season.

For now, that’s all they need. Whether history regards this season as a success or a failure will depend mostly upon what happens in October, provided the Mets make it back there. It’s a quest that begins Thursday afternoon in Miami for a club -- injuries aside -- that remains firmly in win-now mode.

What needs to go right?
Once again, the Mets are relying on a pair of aces atop their rotation. In replacing Jacob deGrom with Justin Verlander, the team is essentially running back the same roster that won 101 games last year but lost a best-of-three NL Wild Card Series to the Padres. It’s a winning formula, but it requires both Verlander and Max Scherzer to be in peak form at ages 40 and 38, respectively. If they are, there’s enough talent in the lineup and bullpen for the Mets to rise above the Braves and Phillies in a stacked NL East.

Great unknown
Last year, Díaz was the best closer in baseball. And while replacing a one-inning reliever may not be the most difficult challenge for a GM, Díaz was so much more than a typical closer. Losing him for the season to a torn right patellar tendon was a significant blow.

For now, the Mets figure to mix high-leverage relievers David Robertson, Adam Ottavino and Brooks Raley in the ninth. Long term, they could become active in the trade market if getting the final three outs of games becomes a problem. This was a notable strength last season for the Mets, who will do what it takes to ensure Díaz’s absence won’t crush their World Series aspirations.

Team MVP will be …
Francisco Lindor, though Pete Alonso is an excellent choice, as well. The early edge goes to Lindor mostly because he plays the most difficult defensive position on the diamond, he is squarely in his prime at age 29 and he is coming off a year that saw him finish ninth in National League MVP voting while appearing in a career-high 161 games. Lindor can do a little bit of everything. There’s plenty of reason to think the trend will continue in 2023.

Team Cy Young will be …
Verlander. His career arc has been unlike that of nearly every modern pitcher, and his physical track record -- outside of Tommy John surgery in 2020 -- suggests he may be a better bet than Scherzer to stay healthy into his 40s. While risk always exists with players of his age, Verlander won Cy Young Awards at 36 and 39. Even if he takes a half-step back with his new team, he’s a strong bet to be New York’s most reliable pitcher.

Bold prediction
The Mets will return to the World Series for the first time since 2015. Battle-tested and hungry, this group yearns to advance beyond the disappointment of last year, when a 101-win season evaporated over a poor 10-day stretch in September and October. While it’s true that New York is overly reliant on the arms of 40-year-old Justin Verlander and 38-year-old Max Scherzer, those two are driven to add to their legacies, while the club's position-player core remains very much in its prime. Count on the Mets to do better than last year and make it back to the Fall Classic.