This is what it will take for the Mets to make the postseason

MILWAUKEE -- The Mets can see clearly now. The rain is gone. And a playoff berth is right there in front of them.

At around 11 a.m. CT on Thursday, the Mets’ charter plane touched down at Milwaukee Mitchell International Airport. That much was no guarantee; New York had just had two games rained out in Atlanta due to a band of thunderstorms and the approach of Hurricane Helene. Getting out of Georgia required some logistical gymnastics, but the Mets managed to do so without incident.

• Complete coverage: Mets' clinch scenarios, tiebreakers, key games and more

“We’ve been through a lot this year, and this is nothing different,” manager Carlos Mendoza said before departing.

Upon arrival, Mendoza’s team spent Thursday working out at American Family Field, resting and otherwise preparing for a three-game series against the Brewers that begins Friday. These are big games with big implications. Among them:

• The Mets enter Friday’s game in a virtual tie with the Diamondbacks, both of them one game up on the Braves for the final two National League Wild Card spots. Any combination of four New York wins or Arizona losses over the weekend would clinch the Mets a playoff spot because they hold the regular-season tiebreaker over the D-backs after going 4-3 in the season series. As such, they can clinch as early as Saturday.
• The Diamondbacks could also clinch a berth by Saturday if they win each of their next two games and the Braves lose both. Atlanta can’t clinch until Sunday, and that would only happen if it sweeps Kansas City this weekend and Arizona loses at least twice to San Diego.
• So there are scenarios in which the NL field could be set by Sunday, with only seeding left to play for. If that’s the case, the Mets may be able to avoid a trip back to Atlanta for their scheduled doubleheader on Monday. It’s a decision that would come at the Commissioner’s discretion.

• There is no scenario in which the Mets can be eliminated before Monday, because even if the Brewers sweep them this weekend and the Braves sweep the Royals, Atlanta would be two games up on New York with two head-to-head games left to play, and the tiebreaker between them still at stake. But of course the Mets would prefer to clinch before heading back to Georgia.
• One question worth considering is how motivated the Brewers will be this weekend, considering they’re now locked into the No. 3 seed in the NL. Milwaukee pitched ace Freddy Peralta on Wednesday and has him lined up to start Wild Card Series Game 1 on Tuesday. Frankie Montas will start Friday’s opener for the Brewers, but beyond him, the team may use a combination of openers and bulk relievers, scripting its usage of high-leverage arms so that no one gets overworked in meaningless games. That can only help the Mets, though it’s worth noting the Brewers possess the NL’s top bullpen, so most of the arms going this weekend will be quality ones.

Got all that? Even with just five games left to play, the playoff permutations remain complicated. But here’s an easy way to remember what’s important: just win. If the Mets win all their remaining games, they will make the postseason. If they win three or four, they should have a pretty good shot.

Win out, and the rest will take care of itself.

“We’re facing another really good team in Milwaukee, and we’ve got to go out there and not only win a series, but we’ve got to go out there and take care of business,” was how Mendoza put it. “That’s the only thing we can do.”