Mets set for postseason push in second half

This story was excerpted from Anthony DiComo’s Mets Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

NEW YORK -- Obvious Dickensian references aside, the first half of the Mets’ season truly was split in the middle. There was April and May, the worst of times, a dark period that plunged the team far down the National League standings. Then there was June and July, the best of times, a celebration of Grimace, Glizzy Iggy, “OMG” and -- more than anything -- consistent winning baseball.

The Mets believe -- and have reason to believe -- that the latter months were far more reflective of their abilities than the former. But they must prove it now -- not just in the week and a half leading up to the July 30 Trade Deadline, which will dictate their course for the rest of the summer, but also in August, September and beyond. It’s a quest that begins this week with a four-game set in Miami, followed by a more difficult stretch of games to close out July.

“Right now, we have that playoff spot, but we have a pretty tough schedule coming up the next two weeks,” first baseman Pete Alonso said this week at the All-Star Game in Texas. “I know we’ve got obviously the Subway Series for two games. We’ve got the Braves for four games. We play the Twins for three, which they’re playing really great ball this season.

“I know that we’re holding on [to] that spot right now, but I know as quickly as we got to that spot, it can easily go away. So for us, we just want to be able to keep continuing our great form and playing great team baseball. Ultimately, it’s all about winning and making it to October. Once we do that, anything can happen, as we’ve seen in years past.”

Entering the second half, the Mets are one game up in the NL Wild Card standings on the D-backs and Padres. Lurking further down are four other teams -- the Pirates, Reds, Giants and Cubs -- with at least a puncher’s chance to qualify for the postseason.

Of all the non-division leaders in the NL, the Mets feature the second-best odds of making the playoffs, according to FanGraphs, at 44.1 percent. (Only the Braves at 94.2 percent are more likely to reach October.) They’ve had the most productive offense in baseball since May 31 (.834 OPS), plus a Top 10 rotation. With a little work before the Deadline, the Mets could begin looking even more like a bona fide contender, which leads us nicely into a glance at what the next 10 weeks might hold:

Second-half goal: Make the playoffs
It’s a plain-and-simple ambition for good reason. The Mets have done well to put themselves back in contention following a near-disastrous start to the season. This isn’t yet a team that can say “World Series or bust,” but at this point -- given the skill level on the roster, the vibes around Queens and the presumed commitment from management to help at the Trade Deadline -- anything less than a Wild Card berth would be a notable disappointment.

Likely Trade Deadline strategy: Cautious buyers
After a couple years of protecting their prospects, the Mets aren’t going to go all-in right now -- not with a club that was below .500 for much of the early season. But veteran leaders have been vocal in advocating for help at the Deadline, and the type of assistance this roster needs is relatively easy to find. The Mets won’t be shopping for a starting pitcher. They don’t require a big bat. All they really want is a reliever (or two), preferably of the leverage variety, and maybe a left-handed bench outfielder. So long as president of baseball operations David Stearns addresses the bullpen in a meaningful way, the Mets will have a creditable claim to being a complete roster.

Key player: RHP Kodai Senga
After missing the entire first half due to a strained right shoulder capsule and resulting complications, Senga is coming out of the All-Star break achingly close to a return. No guarantees exist that he’ll immediately regain his status as the Mets’ best pitcher, but Senga offers something many others on the staff lack -- frontline potential. If the Japanese right-hander can prove healthy and effective, he’ll add a dash of realism to the idea of not just a playoff run, but potentially even a deeper ride through October.

Prospect to watch: RHP Brandon Sproat
Arguably the organization’s most impressive Minor League pitcher and certainly one of its fastest risers, Sproat has seen his reputation soar from that of a talented-but-raw young arm to a consensus Top 100 prospect. Now, the question is whether the 23-year-old Sproat (Mets' No. 6 prospect, No. 96 overall) can help New York this season. Capable of throwing triple digits as a starter, Sproat looks like the type of pitcher who could arrive in the heat of a pennant race and throw gas out of the bullpen -- exactly, in other words, the kind of arm the Mets need.