Here's how Mets' lineup could look this year

This story was excerpted from Anthony DiComo’s Mets Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

PORT ST. LUCIE, Fla. -- Ask any Met -- Brandon Nimmo or Francisco Lindor or Pete Alonso or whomever -- and they’ll tell you they really don’t care where they hit in the lineup. It’s frequently a topic of conversation around these parts, even though it probably shouldn’t be. Generally speaking, studies have shown that lineup construction doesn’t make too much of a difference in terms of actual runs scored over the course of a season.

“You should be comfortable wherever you are, because you shouldn’t change,” Lindor said. “Hitters that don’t really feel comfortable in one position is because they’re trying to be someone else.”

But because manager Carlos Mendoza does have a lineup card to fill out on Opening Day, and because this can be such a popular discussion point, it’s time to look at how the Mets’ starting nine should shake out. (And yes, this will change often based on injuries, matchups and other personnel factors. What we’re looking at here are Mendoza’s options on a standard day against a right-handed pitcher, such as the one they’ll face March 28 against the Brewers.)

The traditional lineup

1. Brandon Nimmo
2. Francisco Lindor
3. Pete Alonso
4. Jeff McNeil
5. Starling Marte
6. Francisco Álvarez
7. Brett Baty
8. Mark Vientos
9. Harrison Bader

Let’s start by getting something important out of the way: the first five names here are going to be the top five in Mendoza’s lineup, in some order. It’s overwhelmingly likely to begin with Nimmo, who has been the Mets’ primary leadoff man for years. An elite on-base talent, Nimmo could theoretically hit lower in the lineup, and the Mets have discussed that. But if everyone’s healthy on Opening Day, he’s going to lead off because of how much the team values his skill set up top.

After that, the only restriction Mendoza has mentioned is that he’d like to separate his star lefties, Nimmo and McNeil. Sensible. The Mets could hit McNeil third and Alonso fourth, but that would force them to stack three righties somewhere in the order. Plus, hitting Alonso third could net him an extra at-bat late in games, which is never a bad thing.

Realistically, the lineup that Mendoza draws up on Opening Day will look a lot like the one above. But here’s another example of how the Mets could go:

Speed up top

1. Marte
2. Lindor
3. Alonso
4. Nimmo
5. Alvarez
6. McNeil
7. Vientos
8. Baty
9. Bader

Despite the groin injury that limited him throughout the 2023 season, Marte says he’s fully healthy and expects to steal bases with his usual abandon in 2024. While Marte hasn’t attempted a steal yet this spring, one can attribute that mostly to the fact that he hasn’t spent much time on base. Eventually, he will.

Heading into last season, Mets officials believed Nimmo would become more of a base-stealing threat. Instead, Nimmo chose power over speed and almost completely ignored the running game, largely because he considers stolen bases another way to end up on the injured list. Despite baseball’s new rules for 2023 that resulted in a 41 percent increase in steals league-wide, Nimmo attempted just six all year and was only successful on three.

Barring a sudden change of philosophy, it’s safe to assume Nimmo won’t be running often. But Lindor will. Marte definitely will. And while it’s true that front offices have gravitated more toward on-base machines than fast runners over the past two decades, the calculus has shifted at least somewhat given baseball’s new rules.

The Mets don’t intend to use a lineup like the one above on Opening Day, but if Marte is healthy, there could be some merit to trying to wreak havoc on the bases early in games.

Then again, there’s also merit in doing something like this:

Best hitters, most at-bats

1. Lindor
2. Alonso
3. Nimmo
4. Marte
5. McNeil
6. Alvarez
7. Vientos
8. Baty
9. Bader

A popular way to maximize lineup potential is to stack a team’s most potent hitters up top, making them most likely to receive extra at-bats late in games. It’s why so many All-Stars around the league now hit second, as opposed to third or fourth.

“That’s the biggest thing,” Nimmo said. “You just want to try and get the people that you feel like are your best hitters and will give you the best chance to score, you’re trying to give them the most at-bats.”

The primary benefit of this lineup is slotting Alonso second, while bumping Nimmo to a run-producing spot and ensuring that the Mets’ OPS+ leaders from the past three seasons bat first through third. Lindor is a Swiss Army knife for Mendoza because he boasts significant experience batting first, second and third throughout his career. As a switch-hitter, he also makes things easy when considering left-right balance.

Once again, don’t expect the Mets to use this type of lineup from the jump, given the extent to which they value Nimmo leading off. But if Mendoza wants to shake things up later in the season, it’s something worth considering.