What's the Mets' plan for Alonso?

This story was excerpted from Anthony DiComo’s Mets Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

Over the past week, Mets owner Steve Cohen and general manager Billy Eppler have made the organization’s vision clear -- they intend to invest judiciously in the 2024 roster before expanding their commitment to winning baseball in 2025. That doesn’t mean the Mets will be noncompetitive in 2024, but it does make a playoff run more difficult.

It’s hard to consider that timeline without also considering the future of Pete Alonso, a beloved homegrown Met who is only under team control through 2024. If the Mets aren’t going to commit significant resources to improve the cast around Alonso next season, is there a point to keeping him? Might the Mets really make the cold-blooded business decision to trade Alonso? Or will they appeal to the more emotional side of the fan base and extend him?

“Whatever their vision is, whatever their plan is, it really doesn’t necessarily matter to me because I’m here right now,” Alonso said. “I want to be the best player I can be right now and for as long as I’m here. It could be forever. We’ll see what happens.”

Ultimately, the Mets have four options when it comes to Alonso:

1. Extend him before his contract expires

Judging by Cohen’s comments, this is a strategy the Mets will at least explore. But it has to make financial sense. In talks, Alonso’s camp will surely use Matt Olson’s eight-year, $168 million extension with the Braves as a starting point and ask for more from there. Alonso will probably take a crack at the nice round number of $200 million. With a strong season next summer, he might just get it. It seems doubtful Alonso will sign an extension for anything significantly less than open-market value, but perhaps the Mets could negotiate a slight discount if they commit to doing something sooner rather than later -- i.e. this upcoming winter.

2. Trade him in the offseason

This is the trade strategy that would net the Mets the biggest return, considering an acquiring team would receive a full year of Alonso’s services. But it would also be wildly unpopular with the fan base and clubhouse and would signal that the Mets are not realistically seeking a 2024 playoff run. For those reasons, it feels like the unlikeliest outcome.

3. Trade him at the 2024 Deadline

This could come into play if two things happen: the Mets find themselves out of contention next July and their extension talks with Alonso -- assuming those happen over the offseason -- go nowhere. At that point, the Mets may decide to see what sort of haul they can get for Alonso, rather than risk losing him for nothing more than a Draft pick.

4. Wait things out until free agency

This is the default option and perhaps the most realistic, considering how close Alonso already is to the open market. As a rule, star players like to test free agency, and Alonso has added incentive to do so given his durability and the fact that he’s already making a relatively high arbitration salary. What’s important to note is that if Alonso does reach free agency, it won’t necessarily dampen his odds of returning -- not if the Mets are committed to keeping him. Cohen pointed to Brandon Nimmo, who hit the open market only to accept a lucrative eight-year offer from his previous employer. One benefit of having the richest owner in baseball is that he has the capability to outbid anyone.

“We love Pete as a Met,” Cohen said. “He’s an integral part of the Mets. He’s still with us for another year. Listen, we hope we work things out. Even with Brandon, we worked things out in free agency, so hopefully we get a few shots at the apple and try to figure it out.”

All that’s clear now is that mutual interest exists in a long-term commitment between Alonso and the Mets. What comes of it remains to be seen.

“I’m going to keep those conversations internal between myself and Pete,” Eppler said. “But he’s such a strong player for this organization, and he means so much to the community and our identity. Between him and Francisco [Lindor] and Brandon, these are guys that we rely on.”