Here's why Mets went with Peterson over Quintana vs. Braves

ATLANTA -- Since late August, Jose Quintana has been, statistically, the Mets’ best pitcher. Over his last five starts, the left-hander is 4-0 with a 0.28 ERA.

Why, then, did the Mets rejigger their rotation to prevent him from facing the Braves in Atlanta?

The answer lies in the stats behind the stats. According to a person with knowledge of the team’s thinking, Mets officials believe David Peterson has pitched just as well, if not better than Quintana over the same stretch, without the surface-level numbers to show for it. Quintana has benefited from elite defense behind him, resulting in a 2.76 Fielding Independent Pitching mark over his last five starts. That’s very good, but it’s not as good as Peterson’s FIP (more on that below) and still almost 10 times higher than his actual ERA in that span.

Meanwhile, Peterson owns a 3.77 ERA and a 2.47 FIP over his last five starts, suggesting he’s been unlucky in the same ways that Quintana has been lucky. He’s also missing bats with more regularity, as evidenced by his 13% swinging strike rate over that period compared to Quintana’s 8% mark, and he’s walking batters at a lower rate.

“We were looking at a lot of different things -- matchups, what was best for the team this series,” manager Carlos Mendoza said. “We felt like, look, Quintana’s been throwing the ball really well, but you could make a case for [Peterson], too. Peterson, even though he struggled his last one, he’s been throwing the ball really well. So we decided going with these three is going to give us the best chance.”

Luis Severino started Tuesday’s series opener for the Mets, moving up in the rotation so that he could pitch two more times in the regular season instead of just once. Peterson and Sean Manaea are scheduled to follow on Wednesday and Thursday, though a harsh weather forecast later this week in Atlanta could affect those plans.

Quintana is currently slated to start the Mets’ series opener in Milwaukee on Friday on eight days of rest.

“He’s a professional,” Mendoza said. “He’ll be ready to go.”

For Peterson, the assignment is the reward for a breakout year that’s seen him go 9-3 with a 3.08 ERA in 20 starts since returning from offseason surgery to repair a torn labrum in his left hip. Peterson allowed four runs over five innings the last time he saw the Braves on July 28. He’s likely to be limited in Wednesday’s start, as the Mets may shield him from facing Atlanta hitters more than twice in the game.

The Braves are also sure to run out a right-handed-heavy lineup against Peterson, with Matt Olson and Michael Harris II the only two likely exceptions.

“I don’t think it changes much, just because I see so many righties [regularly],” Peterson said. “If I have two lefties in a lineup, it’s a lucky day. … I have familiarity with these guys. I’ve faced them enough where I can kind of put my game plan together and know what I have to do to have success.”