Last-minute Deadline considerations for Mets

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Major League Baseball’s Trade Deadline is today at 6 p.m. ET. The Mets have already been among the league’s most active teams in the weeks leading up to it, acquiring Phil Maton from the Rays, Ryne Stanek from the Mariners and Jesse Winker from the Nationals. But they’re probably not done. Some thoughts heading into president of baseball operations David Stearns’ first Deadline with the Mets:

1. The Mets appear to be prioritizing starting pitching, which is the right move. As the team has already shown with José Buttó, Dedniel Núñez, Alex Young and Danny Young in the bullpen, relief pitching is notoriously fickle. Just as pitchers such as, say, Jake Diekman and Adam Ottavino can suddenly struggle, guys can come out of nowhere to help the bullpen in significant ways. I’m not advocating for the Mets to keep their current bullpen mix intact. I’m just saying starting pitching feels like a more important area to explore.

2. Yet starting pitching is a difficult market to navigate. The Mets were in on Erick Fedde but faced significant competition for his services, and the Cardinals ultimately landed him. This year’s market is richer with pitchers under team control beyond the next two months (think Garrett Crochet, Tarik Skubal, Tyler Anderson, Cal Quantrill, Zack Littell) than it is with guys who will be free agents in November. That typically means the price to acquire those arms is higher, which makes negotiations more challenging.

3. The obvious wild card in the pitching market is Blake Snell, who has been sensational in July (24 innings, 0.75 ERA, 30 strikeouts, seven walks). Snell has a $30 million player option on his contract for next season, which many contenders could not easily add to their payrolls. If Snell continues pitching well, he’ll almost certainly opt out in search of a more lucrative multiyear deal. If he struggles or gets hurt, however, he might trigger the option. That puts all the risk on his acquiring team.

The Mets, with their rotation needs and owner Steve Cohen’s deep pockets, are uniquely positioned to absorb that risk, especially if it means minimizing the prospect cost. While the Mets would eventually love to get under MLB’s Competitive Balance Tax threshold, they’re not particularly close to doing so. In that sense, Snell would add to an existing problem, not create a new one.

4. Why is a trade for a starting pitcher important? It’s only partially for the obvious reason that Tylor Megill and David Peterson have been inconsistent as the Mets’ fourth and fifth starters. More crucial is the fact that the Mets really only run five deep with now with big league-caliber starters, as I detailed in this recent piece for MLB.com. Neither Christian Scott nor Kodai Senga is coming back soon, if they return at all this season. The Mets are an injury away from a rather significant rotation disaster, which is creating heaps of pressure for them to add a starter before the Deadline.

Important to note: While Buttó could help this situation, he’s at least a week or two away from being able to provide meaningful starting pitching innings again. And it’s not as if Buttó was previously lights-out as a starter.

5. As far as moves the Mets have already made, I love the Winker trade for the Mets. They didn’t give up a ton of ceiling in Tyler Stuart, who’s on the old side for a prospect and doesn’t strike out enough batters to profile as a frontline starter. And Winker fits well in this Mets lineup, especially with all the doubts regarding Starling Marte’s health. People forget how good a hitter Winker was from 2017-21, before neck and back injuries began altering his career. Winker is healthy now and, while he’s not a great defender, neither is Marte at this point in his career.

6. One outside-the-box move to keep an eye on: the Mets have included Jeff McNeil’s name in trade conversations this month, according to a person familiar with the talks. McNeil’s hot streak has perhaps since made him too valuable to deal, but the really intriguing part is that sources say the Mets have also been sniffing around the infield market. If the team could, say, use McNeil in a trade for a pitcher and then backfill second base with a different player, they could perhaps grow more creative in trade talks than they otherwise would be. Is it likely? No. But it’s something worth keeping an eye on as the day progresses.