Mets shift focus ahead of Winter Meetings

This story was excerpted from Anthony DiComo’s Mets Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

By Sunday evening, most of the baseball industry will have descended upon the Gaylord Opryland Resort & Convention Center in Nashville, Tenn., site of the annual Winter Meetings. On the surface, the Meetings can seem like any other industry convention -- crowded, busy, chaotic. The difference is that when the front offices of all 30 teams assemble alongside nearly every certified agent in the game, deals tend to happen.

That’s good news for a Mets team with plenty of work to do even after its recent acquisitions of Luis Severino and Joey Wendle. With a host of significant needs and plenty of space on their 40-man roster, the Mets figure to rank among the more active teams at this year’s event.

But what shape will that take? Here’s a look at how the next week figures to unfold:

Key events

• Sunday: HOF Contemporary Era ballot results released (Cito Gaston, Davey Johnson, Jim Leyland, Ed Montague, Hank Peters, Lou Piniella, Joe West and Bill White)
• Tuesday: Draft Lottery
• Wednesday: Rule 5 Draft

Club needs

The Mets have three major holes on their roster. The largest is in the rotation, where only Kodai Senga, José Quintana and Severino are under guaranteed contract. Yoshinobu Yamamoto leads a long list of pitchers in whom the Mets will be interested; look for them to sign one or two more prominent starters before the offseason is complete.

Though the bullpen is equally barren, that’s a market that tends to develop a bit later in the winter. The team needs multiple relievers to operate in front of closer Edwin Díaz and left-handed setup man Brooks Raley.

Finally, the club is interested in offensive upgrades beyond just Wendle. The ideal acquisition would be capable of playing some outfield while also slotting regularly at DH -- think Teoscar Hernández, Jorge Soler or, yes, even Shohei Ohtani if things break right. (Just don’t count on the latter, considering his cost and the Mets’ manifold other issues.)

Potential trade candidates

The Mets still have a glut of position players who don’t factor easily into their long-term plans. So long as Brett Baty, Ronny Mauricio and Mark Vientos are all part of the roster, those three must be considered trade candidates. (You’ll also hear plenty about Pete Alonso in the coming months, but don’t spend much time worrying about that. President of baseball operations David Stearns has been clear and consistent in saying he won’t deal Alonso this offseason.)

It’s worth noting that although New York may pop up in rumors for stars like Juan Soto or Alex Bregman, team officials have been adamant in prioritizing farm system depth as their long-term objective. As such, it’s unlikely the Mets would part with the type of prospect capital required to swing a trade of such prominence.

Prospect to know

While the Mets’ farm system remains thin on impact pitching, 23-year-old Mike Vasil reached Triple-A Syracuse last summer and will compete for attention -- if not for a rotation job outright -- in Spring Training. Ranked New York’s No. 9 prospect by MLB Pipeline, he figures to arrive in Flushing at some point next season, perhaps even early in the campaign.

Infielder and top Mets prospect Luisangel Acuña, meanwhile, was the prize of the Max Scherzer trade and profiles as one of the more intriguing prospects the club has had in a while. Acuña, the younger brother of Ronald Acuña Jr., should open the year at Syracuse and push for the Majors late next summer.

Rule 5 Draft

Despite double-digit vacancies on their 40-man roster, the Mets felt it necessary to protect only one prospect -- outfielder Alex Ramírez -- before last month’s deadline. As such, there’s not much concern over whom they might lose at the Rule 5 Draft. Instead, the Mets could look to be opportunistic in adding a player, given how much room they have to tinker.

As usual, there are upside arms to be had, including several former high Draft picks who have endured injuries or inconsistencies in the pros. Among them is right-hander JT Ginn, a second-round pick whom the Mets traded to the A’s for Chris Bassitt in 2022.

Draft lottery

For the first time, New York will have a keen interest in this event. Because the Mets finished with the seventh-worst record in the Majors, they hold a little less than a coin-flip chance to receive a Top 6 pick through the lottery system. Why is this important? Top 6 picks are protected from Competitive Balance Tax penalties, which the Mets are slated to receive after blowing past the highest CBT threshold for a second straight year. If New York’s top selection falls to seventh overall or lower, it won’t be protected. Under that scenario, the Mets would be docked 10 places in the Draft and pick 17th or worse.

For what it’s worth, the Mets have a 4.3% chance to land the top overall pick and a roughly 35% chance of getting a top-6 pick. Cue the “Dumb and Dumber” memes.

Burning question

How aggressive will Stearns be? Owner Steve Cohen and former general manager Billy Eppler both said in August that they expected the Mets to take a step back this offseason while still being competitive -- a difficult needle to thread. We’re probably not looking at another payroll approaching $400 million, but as the Severino acquisition indicates, that doesn’t mean the Mets intend to fix things on the cheap.