There's a change atop the latest Rookie Power Rankings

Welcome to the second edition of the 2023 Rookie Power Rankings. Once per month, the MLB Pipeline staff votes on who we believe to be the likeliest Rookie of the Year winners at the end of the season.

Be sure not to miss those last few words: at the end of the season. We’re not voting on who would win if the awards were handed out now. Instead, we weigh both performance to date and rest-of-year expectations, adding up to a judgment call from our prospect experts. As the year goes on, current-season stats will weigh more heavily, and expectations will wash out of the rankings.

Unsurprisingly, there’s been a good amount of shakeup since the preseason rankings. Here’s how the votes came out:

• MLB Pipeline | Top 100 prospects | Prospect video

1. Corbin Carroll, OF, D-backs (previous rank: 3)
We’ll be keeping an eye on Carroll, who suffered a leg injury in Sunday’s game, but so far he’s been exactly as expected. He hit his way onto prospect radars in the Minor Leagues. He hit upon arriving in the Majors last year. And what do you know? He’s kept hitting this season. Carroll’s chances of bringing home NL hardware also increased quite a bit -- unfortunately, it should be noted -- due to Jordan Walker being optioned to the Minors. Walker was No. 2, a hair ahead of Carroll, in the preseason rankings.

2. Gunnar Henderson, 3B, Orioles (previous rank: 1)
Unlike Carroll, Henderson hasn’t gotten off to the greatest start. But we remain unfazed. He’s still drawing his walks, and he’s started to pick it up a bit over the past couple of weeks. Mostly, everything in his history suggests he’s going to perform. If his batting average still starts with a one when we check back in next month, it may be a different matter. But for now, we still believe.

3. Hunter Brown, RHP, Astros (previously unranked)
So this may have been a bit of a miss on our part. Brown was a top-50 prospect entering the year, and he had a rotation spot, at least at the start of the year. And it shouldn’t surprise anybody when the Astros churn out a young pitcher who can get it done at the Major League level. Brown has struck out at least five in each of his five starts, and in three of those games he’s gone seven or more innings with no more than one earned run. He’s impressive.

4. Brett Baty, 3B, Mets (previously unranked)
And this is probably our other preseason miss. Even though Baty began the year in the Minors, there wasn’t much reason to think he would stay there for long. And, well, he didn’t. Baty took about three games to find his footing, but he’s come on quickly, and he’s another guy whose whole history tells you he’s going to hit. He’s a top-25 prospect with an everyday job. He’s a guy to watch in the NL rookie race.

5. Josh Jung, 3B, Rangers (previous rank: 8)
Jung received high marks going back to college for his polish at the plate and his ability to get the bat on the ball. His power was less of a sure thing. But during his brief stint in the Minors, his slugging percentage climbed at every level, and he’s rapped seven extra-base hits in the last 13 games. If the power continues to play, he’ll continue to show up in the top half of this list.

6. Masataka Yoshida, OF, Red Sox (previous rank: 5)
Yoshida started slowly, with a sub-Mendoza batting average as late as April 21. But he’s been raking for almost two weeks now, bringing his season numbers up to the sort of range where you would expect -- outstanding on-base performance and moderate power. Due to his age (almost 30), he’s likely less of a volatile asset than some of the names on this list.

7. Kodai Senga, RHP, Mets (previous rank: 4)
Unlike his countryman, Senga came out gangbusters but has cooled a good bit. He’s allowed 10 runs and 12 walks over his past three starts, and has made only one start against a team not in the bottom five in runs per game. It’s not that he can’t get it done -- when he’s on, you can see what excited the Mets about him as a potential addition. But he needs to start throwing more strikes and getting deeper into games.

8. James Outman, OF, Dodgers (previously unranked)
Well, we certainly didn’t see this one coming, but neither did anybody else. Outman, who turns 26 in a couple of weeks, entered the year as the Dodgers’ No. 8 prospect, an intriguing player who got better as he climbed the ladder but still seemed like an uncertain bet at the big league level. So far, he’s been a beast, with seven homers in the first month. It remains to be seen how long he can keep this up, but if he does it for even another month, you can bet he’ll rank higher on the next hot list.

9. Grayson Rodriguez, RHP, Orioles (previously unranked)
Rodriguez, our No. 2 right-handed pitching prospect and No. 5 overall, might qualify as another miss from the season-opening rankings. To be fair, it appeared he had pitched his way out of a pretty safe rotation spot during Spring Training, so it was understandable to wonder how long he might stay in Triple-A. The answer was measured in days, not weeks, and he keeps getting better since his promotion. Rodriguez has turned in back to back scoreless outings, and his last time out, he struck out nine over five innings. He’s likely to rise.

10. Anthony Volpe, SS, Yankees (previous rank: 6)
You were warned in this very space that Volpe might take a bit to adjust, and he has. We still love him long-term, and probably even medium term. He’s doing some things well, like taking his walks and stealing bases. And even his hitting numbers look a lot better if you remove his 4-for-31 start. He’ll be fine, but there’s a hill to climb for him to secure the hardware.