Fried extension possible? 'It's something we'll talk about'

NORTH PORT, Fla. -- As Max Fried prepared for Friday morning’s workout, he was asked what he would say to those fans who have wondered if he might be disgruntled about losing his recent arbitration hearing and the fact he wasn’t among the crop of Braves players to receive a contract extension last year.

“I couldn’t be happier for [the players who received an extension],” Fried said. “They've worked really hard, and they've earned it and they're extremely talented. I was going up giving them hugs and sitting in their press conferences. It was kind of life-changing money for people. It was good to be able to congratulate them.”

Time will tell whether Fried will ever be on the other side of those congratulatory expressions. The 29-year-old left-hander is still under club control for two seasons. But many Braves fans likely remember Freddie Freeman first began discussing the possibility of an extension during Spring Training in 2019, with two years remaining on his contact.

So, would Fried be open to discussing an extension?

“Me and the team have always had good dialogue,” Fried said. “We’ve been able to have some good communication. I really love my time here and I love the team. So if that is something that comes to the table, it’s something we’ll talk about.”

What might it take to extend Fried? Well, the average annual value will certainly exceed those within the extensions the Braves gave to four players last year.

Matt Olson -- 8 years/$168 million ($21M AAV)
Austin Riley -- 10/$212M ($21.2M AAV)
Michael Harris II -- 8/$72M ($9M AAV)
Spencer Strider -- 6/$75M ($12.5 AAV)

So, you’re not necessarily comparing apples to apples when questioning why Fried hasn’t yet received an extension.

Fried finished second in last year’s National League Cy Young Award balloting and fifth in 2020. He has posted the third-best ERA (2.68) and produced the seventh-best fWAR (10.2) among all qualified MLB pitchers since the start of 2020. In other words, he enjoyed seeing how lucrative the starting pitching market remained this past offseason.

The five contracts of four years or longer given to starting pitchers signed this winter:

Carlos Rodón, Yankees -- 6 years, $162 million ($27M AAV)
Jacob deGrom, Rangers -- 5/$185M ($37M AAV)
Kodai Senga, Mets -- 5/$75M ($15M AAV)
Taijuan Walker, Phillies -- 4/$72M ($18M AAV)
Jameson Taillon, Cubs -- 4/$68M ($17M AAV)

deGrom’s contract is a product of the dominance he has shown over the past six seasons, even while injuries limited him the past two years. Taillon and Walker are both at least one year older than Fried and neither has pitched nearly as effectively as the Braves' left-hander over the past three seasons.

Looking at last year alone, Fried produced an adjusted ERA of 164, which ranked seventh among all qualified starters. Taillon had a 100 ERA+ and Walker posted a 111 ERA+. As for Rodón, he was at least more comparable with a 140 ERA+.

Rodón, who is also a year older than Fried, has endured an injury-plagued career, which only became more promising as he combined to make 55 starts over the past two seasons for the White Sox and Giants. He has produced a 157 ERA+ while Fried has a 153 ERA+ over the past two seasons.

So, Rodón’s $27M AAV seems to be more in line with what Fried might receive as a free agent. Timing also matters. The Braves hurler would hit the market after the 2024 season, when Shane Bieber, Walker Buehler, Corbin Burnes and possibly Gerrit Cole (opt-out) could also be hitting the open market.

And there’s a possibility Fried’s value could continue to rise over these next two seasons. He said he has never envisioned winning a Cy Young Award. But given his recent finishes, there’s reason to believe he could eventually add this trophy to his collection.

“He‘s a driven individual who is never going to feel satisfied,” Braves manager Brian Snitker said. “He’s always going to be looking for a way to improve himself.”

Given the Braves are already over this year's first competitive balance tax threshold, it didn’t make sense to give Fried an extension that affected the 2023 payroll. Would they eventually be comfortable giving approximately $30 million a year to a pitcher who would be 30-plus years old throughout the contract? Their need for starting pitching will be influenced by how Michael Soroka and Ian Anderson fare with their rebound attempts this year.

Regardless, Fried doesn’t seem disgruntled as he enters this year with a $13.5 million salary, which he was awarded after requesting $15 million via the arbitration process.

“There’s no anger, animosity or anything,” Fried said.