Unlikely winner of Chapman deal? The best remaining free-agent 3B

Six months ago, Matt Chapman settled on a free-agent deal with the Giants, ending a long winter search for a new deal.

The third baseman’s offseason will be far less stressful this year after Chapman agreed to a six-year, $151 million extension with San Francisco, ending speculation that he would opt out of his deal and test free agency for a second straight season.

What does the Chapman deal mean for the market this coming offseason? Let’s take a look at some of the ramifications of the extension.

What does this mean for this year’s free-agent class?

Chapman was expected to exercise his opt-out clause and give free agency another whirl, but now the 31-year-old will call San Francisco home through the remainder of the decade.

Although a number of suitors likely would have pursued Chapman this winter, his decision to stay in the Bay Area won’t have a huge impact on the top pending free agents.

Juan Soto remains the crown jewel of the class, with industry insiders projecting a deal worth at least $500 million over 10-plus years for the slugger. Corbin Burnes and Max Fried will headline the starting pitching class, with Blake Snell – who also signed with the Giants last winter and is expected to opt out at the end of the season – likely to join them.

Chapman originally ranked seventh on our recent list of the top 10 would-be free agents of the upcoming offseason.

More specifically, what does it mean for the third basemen on the market?

Perhaps the biggest winner Wednesday night was Alex Bregman, who was already viewed by most as the top third baseman on the upcoming free-agent market. With Chapman no longer an option for clubs seeking third base help, Bregman is easily the most notable player at the position headed for free agency.

Eugenio Suárez could join Bregman, as the D-backs hold a $15 million club option for 2025, but the list of third basemen drops off sharply after that. Unless a team looks at moving another free-agent infielder to the hot corner, there may not be a solid starting option at the position on the market this winter.

The Yankees, Blue Jays and Mariners are among the teams that could be in the market for a third baseman this offseason, while the Astros could find themselves in the same spot if Bregman signs elsewhere.

What does the Chapman deal mean for the Giants this winter?

San Francisco has been in the market for some of the game’s top players in recent years, most notably two years ago when the Giants made a big push to sign Aaron Judge.

Last year, the club was seemingly in the mix for Shohei Ohtani before he signed with the rival Dodgers, while the Giants also swung and missed on Bryce Harper in 2018 and couldn’t pull off a trade for Giancarlo Stanton in 2017.

President of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi had an active winter a year ago, signing Chapman, Snell, Jung Hoo Lee, Jorge Soler and Jordan Hicks. The results haven’t been great, as San Francisco entered Thursday with a 68-72 record, leaving the club 8 1/2 games out of an NL Wild Card spot.

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Assuming that Snell opts out, the Giants will have more than $50 million coming off the books at the end of the season, so it’s reasonable to expect them to be aggressive – or at least try to be – in free agency yet again. Soto, Burnes and Fried could be targets, though bringing back Snell could also be in the cards.

The Giants know they won’t have to worry about third base for several years, and with approximately $111 million committed for 2025 (assuming a Snell opt-out), the Chapman extension won’t hinder the club from making more moves this winter.

Will pre-opt-out extensions become a trend?

This is highly unlikely. Chapman, who played in the Bay Area with the Athletics for the first five years of his career, made it known that he wanted to stay in San Francisco, prompting agent Scott Boras to get a deal done with the Giants.

Boras has another busy winter ahead of him with clients including Soto, Bregman, Burnes and Pete Alonso among his crop of free agents. Snell is likely to join them by opting out, while Cody Bellinger could do the same if he sheds the remainder of his deal with the Cubs. Jordan Montgomery, the last of Boras’ big four clients to sign last winter, is unlikely to exercise his opt-out clause.

For the majority of players with opt-out clauses, there is always a chance for them to parlay that leverage into more money and years on the back end of a deal. But history shows that most opt outs are used to test free agency, which figures to continue to be the case moving forward.