Would A's trade Mason Miller? 'They’ll have to be blown away'

Mason Miller’s Baseball Savant page is a sight to behold, with more 100s than a valedictorian’s report card.

The 25-year-old has made quite a name for himself in his first season as the Athletics’ closer, successfully converting 13 of his first 15 save opportunities while striking out 57 batters in 32 2/3 innings. Miller ranks in the 100th percentile in six Statcast categories, including fastball velocity (100.9 mph), chase percentage, whiff percentage and strikeout percentage.

In theory, the right-hander is the exact type of player a rebuilding club would want to make part of its future. Miller is under control for five more years after 2024 and has the type of electric arm that fans flock to see.

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So why has there been so much chatter about him as a potential trade candidate this season?

“Relievers are tough to figure out and they can get hurt out of nowhere, not to mention the volatility of performance that tends to exist in that role,” a National League executive said. “He’s a difference-maker for a playoff club, so there could be a good trade out there for them.”

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The rash of elbow injuries around baseball in recent years is cause for concern when it comes to any pitcher, let alone one that throws as hard as Miller. He was diagnosed with a sprain of his ulnar collateral ligament last May, and while the issue didn’t require surgery, it remains part of his history.

Oakland is in the midst of a rebuilding plan, and as good as Miller has been, the idea of dealing him for a package of young players is something the A’s front office will likely at least consider this summer.

“An elite closer is not as valuable to a rebuilding team,” an NL exec said. “But I’d also be hesitant to give up a ton for him as he’s had health issues and you don’t know what the staying power is.”

Miller’s five-plus years of control is as valuable to many teams as his cannon of an arm, providing cost certainty in a late-inning spot that can get quite costly on the free-agent market.

“It’s a tough one [for Oakland] since he’s only a one-plus [service time player], but he has also had injuries in the recent past,” an NL executive said. “On one hand, if you’re ever trying to contend in the somewhat near future, he’s a guy to build around. On the other hand, his value will never be higher.”

“Because Miller still has five years of control remaining after 2024, Oakland has the luxury of knowing they can wait until they receive whatever offer they believe will be the best within that remaining control,” said another NL decision-maker. “That gives them an incredible amount of leverage over any club who seeks to trade for Miller right now.”

The executives who lent their thoughts on the Miller situation were split on whether the Athletics should trade him, but all agreed that if they do, the return will be huge.

“The return would be massive,” an American League executive said. “You could potentially backfill your system with some solid talent. There is health risk there for any team acquiring him – and therefore risk to hold him long-term. Without contending anytime soon, I think they shop but might not sell.”

“He is young with control and acquiring him would require a haul of impact guys,” an NL executive said. “If the A’s truly aren’t going to spend the money or commitment to the team until they are in Vegas, it might make sense to move him for young, impactful future players. I think moving him with a look to the future makes sense.”

An NL executive called it “an unprecedented situation” given Miller’s impressive performance and lengthy club control.

“I’m sure they’ll have to be blown away,” the exec said.

Another AL executive believes Oakland should deal Miller, who will surely be coveted by a number of top teams. The Orioles appear to be in the market for a closer, and given the depth of Baltimore’s farm system – and the appeal of acquiring a controllable asset such as Miller – it’s not difficult to imagine those two teams matching up.

“They remain in a tricky spot that they don’t fully seem ready to hit the gas pedal,” the AL exec said. “All of the top World Series contenders should have a lot of interest in Miller, and we know how volatile relievers can be. They could likely spin him into multiple pieces that will be more valuable in aggregate for their ramp-up.”

The executive compared Miller’s situation to the one the Pirates have faced the past two years with David Bednar, their All-Star closer who blew three of his first four save chances this season and currently has a 5.34 ERA.

“While I don’t know exactly what the Pirates could have received for Bednar along the way, I see it similarly,” the AL exec said. “They held because they wanted him to be a part of their success and now he has taken a step back and they’re still a little short to contend for the division.”

Bednar isn’t the only proven closer taking his lumps this season. Edwin Díaz – who was traded by the Mariners to the Mets in December 2018 with four years of club control remaining – has blown four of his 11 save opportunities this season and has a 4.70 ERA. Jordan Romano, who has been to two straight All-Star Games, had a 6.59 ERA in 15 outings for the Blue Jays before landing on the injured list in early June with a sore elbow.

The volatility of relievers’ performances makes them tricky trade candidates, especially when a team is acquiring them with multiple years of control. Renting a reliever presents less risk, though the potential for long-term reward isn’t there, either.

“Relievers are so freaking volatile,” an AL executive said. “You don’t want to be stuck holding the bag when the guy turns south and/or gets hurt. Get him to a contender.”