1 question for Miami ahead of Winter Meetings

This story was excerpted from Christina De Nicola’s Marlins Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

The Winter Meetings begin a week from today in Nashville, Tenn., and there's one burning question revolving around the Marlins this Hot Stove season: How can they prove that 2023 wasn't a fluke?

A lot had to go right for Miami to have a 15-win turnaround and reach the postseason for the first time in a full season since 2003. Luis Arraez, Jorge Soler, Tanner Scott and Braxton Garrett, among others, had career years. The Marlins went from an MLB-worst to an MLB-best in one-run ballgames. The Padres, Mets and Cardinals underperformed. But a lot also went wrong, like extended injuries to Jazz Chisholm Jr., Trevor Rogers and Avisaíl García. And yet, the club found a way to overcome that.

Things will look a bit different in 2024, and it starts at the top of the rotation and towards the top of the lineup. Ace Sandy Alcantara will miss the entirety of the season due to Tommy John surgery, and All-Star and Silver Slugger Soler is testing the free-agent market. Though Alcantara had a down year (4.14 ERA), he still tossed a team-high 184 2/3 innings and finished with the 15th-highest fWAR among National League starting pitchers. Soler, meanwhile, accounted for 22 percent of the club's home run total and drove in the second-most runs.

How Miami is able to replace that type of production on the pitching staff and in the lineup could determine whether the club recreates that success in 2024. The Marlins will need to dive into the trade and/or free-agent markets to fill those voids -- or else rely on a collective effort from the existing 40-man roster.

On the pitching front, two reinforcements are scheduled to rejoin the starting depth, but they come with question marks. Lefty Rogers made just four starts in 2023 because of a right lat strain and a left biceps strain, and he also missed time with injuries in '21-22. Can he be relied upon to stay healthy? Right-hander Max Meyer (Miami’s No. 3 prospect) should be ready sometime during the early part of the season following Tommy John surgery rehab, but he has just six MLB innings on his resume. Then take into consideration the likelihood Garrett, Jesús Luzardo and Eury Pérez will see a loosening of the reins after they set career highs for innings in '23. At the same time, it will be interesting to see how their arms hold up because of that workload -- and if there’s any regression.

Last offseason, Miami signed veteran Johnny Cueto to eat up innings. That didn’t go as planned, and he’s no longer with the club. Might that deter the Marlins this winter? It’s also important to note the starting-pitching free-agent market is always on the pricier side.

When it comes to the lineup, the Marlins will benefit from full seasons of first baseman/designated hitter Josh Bell and third baseman Jake Burger, both of whom came over ahead of the Trade Deadline and made an immediate impact. However, Miami still scored the fewest runs in the NL -- and that was with Soler appearing in 137 games.

The catcher and shortstop positions, where the Marlins finished with the second-lowest and lowest OPS in the Majors, respectively, could use upgrading. While Miami dealt for Vidal Bruján, president of baseball operations Peter Bendix made it a point to say the former top prospect has above-average defense in multiple positions, including right field. It’s a weak free-agent market for shortstop, so there’s a chance the club turns to internal options like Bruján, Jon Berti and prospect Jacob Amaya. Don’t forget Xavier Edwards was getting pregame reps at the end of the season, and Chisholm came up as a shortstop.

At catcher, Mitch Garver should be a free-agent target for the Marlins, though he served more as the DH than backstop for the World Series champion Rangers. He also has dealt with injuries each of the past five seasons. If the free-agent market becomes too pricey, Miami could deal a controllable starting pitcher for a bat for the second straight offseason. Like they’ve done in the past, the Marlins will need to be flexible and creative to sustain the winning culture they built in 2023.

“Successful would be building that relationship with [Bendix] and whoever he brings along with him, if that happens, and then getting into the postseason,” manager Skip Schumaker said following his NL Manager of the Year win. “Some of our players got a taste of that postseason now and they understand that's what it's all about. After the [NL Wild Card] game in Philly, there were a lot of emotional guys that they didn't really understand it until they got there, like, the power of the postseason, the crowd, the media, the requests, whatever it is. That's the real stage that you want to be on.

“And not getting on that stage is not successful to me. I've said that forever. I've only wanted to be in the playoffs since I understood what that looked like in St. Louis, as a player and as a coach, and anything less than that is not successful to me. People looked at me like cross-eyed when I said that last year, but it's just the truth, and so hopefully we can continue building what we started last year, and see what Peter does.”