One strike away, Marlins let lead slip away in tough loss

MIAMI -- One strike. That was how close the Marlins were to a series victory over the perennial National League East champion Braves. But as has been the case so far in 2024, one strike seems like an astronomical task.

In a moment that perfectly encapsulates Miami’s tough start to the season, closer Tanner Scott surrendered the go-ahead, three-run homer to Marcell Ozuna in Sunday afternoon’s 9-7 loss to Atlanta at loanDepot park. It negated a six-run rally by a banged-up lineup that lost Jake Burger (left oblique discomfort) and Vidal Bruján (right knee) during the game due to injuries.

“I feel like it's just like a kick in the teeth, especially me,” starter left-hander Jesús Luzardo said. “Feel like I didn't do my job. I feel like if I don't go out there and give up five in the first five, that home run kind of becomes irrelevant. It sucks that I put the pressure on the bullpen like that. But at the end of the day, going into the ninth, you have your guy out there, and I take Tanner 30 days out of 30. He just put a good swing on it, and it's a little frustrating, but you tip your cap to Ozuna and move on.”

Scott, who was tied with Félix Bautista for the highest fWAR (2.8) among all Major League relievers in 2023, has struggled in the early going much like the rest of the bullpen. After Sunday, Miami’s relievers have blown five saves in six opportunities and have a 5.88 ERA, the third-highest in all of baseball. Though Scott entered the series finale with a 1.35 ERA after three consecutive scoreless appearances, allowing just two hits in 22 at-bats (.091 average), the underlying numbers tell a different story.

Entering Sunday:

• Chase rate went from 35.3% (99th percentile!) to 21.3% (13th percentile) -- the sixth-biggest drop among qualified pitchers -- despite his slider gaining two more inches of drop (34.8 inches to 36.8 inches) and 1.5 inches of break (6.5 to 8.0).
• Fourth-largest decrease in whiff rate (-12.7%) and the biggest decrease in swing percentage (-16.9%) among qualified pitchers.
• Zone rate has fallen from 51.5 to 45.3%.

When the Marlins acquired Scott toward the end of Spring Training two years ago, the main thing preventing him from becoming one of baseball’s top relievers was his inability to throw strikes. He figured it out in a breakout 2023, lowering his BB/9 rate from 6.6 to 2.8.

But command eluded Scott in Spring Training (seven walks in 5 2/3 innings) and has carried over. It’s the only thing holding him back: He hadn’t permitted a barreled ball until Austin Riley’s lineout and Ozuna’s homer in the ninth.

Even in Wednesday’s five-out save against the Yankees, Scott needed to escape a bases-loaded jam following an infield hit and two walks. After retiring two of the first three batters on Sunday, Scott issued a free pass to Matt Olson by trying to go inside but missing badly on all four pitches.

“The Ozuna home run is tough, no doubt, but I think the four-pitch walk probably to Olson was the biggest one that he probably wants back, that at-bat,” manager Skip Schumaker said. “Not that Olson's a bad player by any means, but I think just the left-on-left [matchup] with the shadows, all that stuff, the four-pitch walk, I think that probably was the one at-bat that he wanted back. I don't even think he hung the slider [to Ozuna]. It was just down and in -- might have even been a ball. But he just got enough barrel on it, and it sucks.”

That set up a rematch between Ozuna and Scott, who bested the former Marlin by inducing a 6-3 double play in Saturday’s ninth inning. Ozuna said Scott offered the same sequence of pitches on Sunday: slider, corner away; slider, inside, slider down-and-in.

Sunday’s offering wasn’t down and in enough.

“I just wanted good contact to tie the game because the runner was running on contact,” Ozuna said. “I broke my bat [Saturday] and grounded into the double play. So, today, I said ‘OK, I’m going to pay it back.'’’ … Those clutch moments, they’re do-or-die. If you get the result, you get the result. If you fail, you fail. I just wanted to make good contact.’’

Added Scott: “I just threw a bad pitch, and it all falls on me. I should have got the guy before him, and then I should have got him. So it's my mistake. He takes big swings on every pitch, so you just try to get it to where he is not going to hit it, and I threw it to his honey hole, and he got it.”