Shapiro on payroll: 'We never feel limited'

DUNEDIN, Fla. -- The Blue Jays are standing in the sweet spot, a place rebuilds often target but rarely reach.

Back in 2019, as the organization pivoted towards its youth and swallowed a 95-loss season, this was dangled as the payoff down the road. Eventually, the Blue Jays’ front office envisioned a young core coming into its prime years just as free-agent spending ramped up, and despite some expected bumps along the way and unexpected home stadiums, that’s exactly how it’s happened.

In those years, club president and CEO Mark Shapiro laid one thing out clearly. There would come a time to spend, but it had to be the right time. Spending big to go from 81 to 85 wins would be too early, and Shapiro echoed that sentiment again recently. Even with a payroll set to open comfortably north of $160 million, there’s room to be more aggressive now that it’s the right time.

“We never feel limited by that,” Shapiro said. “If your internal projection says you’re going to win 92 games and a player takes you from 92 to 94, those are pretty big wins. I’m not saying that’s where we are, but using it as a hypothetical, the meaning of those wins and even the return from a revenue perspective could be dramatic.”

Toronto won’t be spending to the levels of the Dodgers, Mets or Yankees, but the Canadian market is loaded with potential. With a population near 38 million -- close to that of California, as a comparison -- the Blue Jays' potential for added revenue and payroll down the road is very real if the club is competing into October each year.

“I think there’s an opportunity for us to sustain much higher payrolls, not in the top five but certainly close to that,” Shapiro said. “Payroll management is extremely important, always. What that means is just not all getting old at the same time. It’s continuing to commit to young players, continuing to balance your payroll, making some tough decisions at times.”

The spending really started with Hyun Jin Ryu prior to the 2020 season. Ryu signed a four-year, $80 million contract, and even though that might have been a year ahead of schedule, the roster itself had pushed the timeline. The Blue Jays finished third in the AL East to earn a Wild Card spot.

Then came George Springer with a six-year deal for $150 million prior to the '21 campaign, the most money ever handed out by the organization. This offseason, José Berríos was next, signing a seven-year, $131 million extension just before free agent Kevin Gausman signed for five years and $110 million. These are the deals that Blue Jays fans had grown accustomed to seeing elsewhere, but not in Toronto and not this close together.

Toronto's young core made those moves possible. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette have been in their pre-arbitration years, and even as Guerrero enters his, it’s very manageable for the Blue Jays. This entire conversation leads to one pressure point, though, which is how the Blue Jays can keep Guerrero and Bichette in Toronto long term.

The short answer? It won’t be cheap and it won’t be simple.

Without getting into specifics, Shapiro said that the organization regularly engages in conversations with players who they view as part of their future core, whether that be in the form of exploratory talks or exchanging actual offers. The market has changed drastically with recent mega-deals like Fernando Tatis Jr.’s 14-year, $340 million extension and the 11-year, $182 million deal signed by Wander Franco, but Shapiro’s view on the process has remained the same through his career.

“You’re both giving up something. You’re both getting a little bit uncomfortable,” Shapiro said. “For the stability and certainty, you’re looking for players and people you can bet on long-term. My belief that you should explore those and try to do those deals has not changed.”

The decisions tend to get tougher at this point, too. The recent trade addition of Matt Chapman gave the Blue Jays a major upgrade, but it cost a package of prospects led by ’21 first-rounder Gunnar Hoglund. The Berríos deal cost Austin Martin and Simeon Woods Richardson, Nos. 2 and 4 in the system at the time. Even the Raimel Tapia deal cost MLB talent in Randal Grichuk, plus a good chunk of cash.

Sometimes, these moves won’t be as easy to stomach as the classic veteran-for-prospects deals you’ll see earlier in a rebuild, but they’re necessary. Shapiro is happy that his front office has gotten here without dealing from the very top of their system -- meaning Gabriel Moreno, Orelvis Martinez and Jordan Groshans -- but what about that “untouchable” that's sometimes thrown around?

“I don’t believe in it,” Shapiro said. “I don’t believe in black and white in general, whether it’s this number of years for a pitcher, this agent or untouchable players. Why box yourself in? There is no such thing.”