Trade analysis: What Polanco-to-Mariners swap means

The Mariners and Twins swung a major trade on Monday night, as two clubs with postseason hopes swapped pieces that could help them win in 2024 and beyond. It’s a deal that may end up helping both sides – as was the case with the Twins’ trade of Luis Arraez to the Marlins for Pablo López last offseason.

TRADE DETAILS
Mariners receive: INF Jorge Polanco
Twins receive: RHP Justin Topa, RHP Anthony DeSclafani, OF Gabriel Gonzalez (No. 79 overall prospect – was Mariners No. 3; now Twins No. 4), RHP Darren Bowen (unranked prospect), cash

Here is a breakdown of this intriguing exchange from all angles, via MLB.com experts:

Why it makes sense for the Mariners
Via Mariners beat writer Daniel Kramer

Not since Robinson Canó have the Mariners had much clarity or reliability at second base, but they believe they’ve landed a fixture for next season and potentially beyond.

Polanco is a player who has been coveted by Seattle’s front office for years, given that he hits from both sides and can play across the infield. The plan is for the 2019 All-Star to be the regular second baseman, but he also has 501 games of experience at shortstop and 24 at third base, giving manager Scott Servais plenty of platoon options to navigate a crowded infield.

The Mariners acquired righty-hitting Luis Urías from Boston in November, and he is expected to be their regular third baseman after the club dealt Eugenio Suárez to Arizona. Lefty-hitting Josh Rojas, acquired in the Paul Sewald deal at last year’s Trade Deadline, and utility man Dylan Moore were in line to platoon at second base before Monday’s trade for Polanco. MORE >

Why it makes sense for the Twins
Via Twins beat writer Do-Hyoung Park

The quiet of the Twins’ offseason was finally shattered with a major deal on Monday night when Minnesota traded Polanco, a franchise fixture and one of the club's longest-tenured players.

This move doesn’t come as a surprise because it was long expected this offseason that the Twins could move either Polanco or outfielder Max Kepler to address other needs on their big league roster. The Twins are in good shape around the infield, with breakout rookie Edouard Julien ready to step into second base and No. 2 prospect Brooks Lee expected to be ready for the Majors at some point in 2024.

Though the Twins’ offense will undoubtedly take a hit with the departure of Polanco, who spent 10 seasons with the club and was one of its anchors toward the top of the lineup with a .796 OPS since 2019, the cash considerations could help free up some money for the Twins to continue bolstering their roster. Falvey indicated that Minnesota could turn its attention more to the position player side, where the club could seek a righty bat. MORE >

Prospect profile
Via MLB Pipeline

RF Gabriel Gonzalez (No. 79 on Top 100)
Age: 20 in 2024
Ht - 5’ 10” / Wt - 165 lbs.
Bats - R / Throws - R
MLB ETA: 2026

Scouting grades (on 20-80 scale): Hit 55 | Power: 50 | Run: 45 | Arm: 65 | Field: 50 | Overall: 55

2023 stats
Class A: .348/.403/.430, 8 HR, 54 RBIs, 8 SB, 23 BB/46 SO (335 PA)
High-A: .216/.290/.387, 9 HR, 30 RBIs, 2 SB, 13 BB/43 SO (200 PA)

Gonzalez, who will be 20 for all of the 2024 season, has already established himself as having a knack for making a lot of contact. His power hasn't come as much yet. Gonzalez’s ability to drive the ball is important because he’s limited to a corner outfield spot, putting more pressure on his bat. He’s a fringy runner now and might slow down as he matures, though he has decent defensive instincts and has an absolute hose for an arm.
MORE >

Hot Stove implications
Via executive reporter Mark Feinsand

This trade made perfect sense given Minnesota’s infield depth and Seattle’s need for a second baseman in a relatively weak free-agent market at that position. While Gonzalez was the centerpiece of this deal and Topa and DeSclafani should help the pitching staff, the fact that Minnesota received $8 million in the trade and shed Polanco’s salary means the Twins could still look to address some other areas with the roughly $5 million they saved. First base and a righty-hitting outfielder are two spots that would seem to make sense.

• 2023-24 free agents, position by position

Diving deep
Via analyst Mike Petriello

Polanco had been a Twin for so long that in his debut, he shared a field with Joe Mauer, who’s now a Hall of Famer, so consider this the end of some kind of an era. Given the surplus of young infielders the Twins have, with Royce Lewis and Julien ready for full-time roles, plus a need to reinforce their pitching staff, trading away the 30-year-old Polanco and the arbitration salaries due him always seemed obvious, even if it took a little longer than expected. They’ll lose an above-average hitter (117 OPS+ over the last five seasons) but a below-average defender (-19 Outs Above Average the last three years) who has regularly missed time with various leg injuries.

By opening up a roster spot and some salary room, the Twins get a late bloomer reliever in Topa, 33 in March, who had something of a breakout season in 2023 with his sinker/slider/cutter trio and a 2.61 ERA; he’ll replace and potentially improve upon what was lost with the departure of Emilio Pagán to the Reds. DeSclafani, 34, won’t replace the quality lost when Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda left, but if healthy he should be able to eat some back-end innings. The key here might be in Gonzalez, though the real impact on the 2024 club might be in whether the savings allow them to make another move – as Falvey indicated it might.

• Every move of the 2023-24 offseason, tracked

Number to know
Via MLB.com research staff

July 6, 2009: That’s the date when Polanco officially signed with the Twins as an amateur free agent out of the Dominican Republic, beginning a tenure that ended Monday. How long ago was that? The day before, the Twins beat the Tigers in a game played at the Metrodome (Target Field opened the next year), with Nick Blackburn pitching a complete game, while Denard Span, Justin Morneau, Jason Kubel, Joe Crede and Delmon Young all picked up multiple hits. Gonzalez, whom the Twins acquired in this deal, was only five years old at the time.