Where do Mariners stand ahead of road trip?

CHICAGO -- Even after a quiet loss to Colorado on Wednesday that snapped a season-high five-game win streak, the Mariners were giddy to get back on the road. No, they didn’t want an extremely positive homestand to end, one in which they went 7-2 and climbed back above .500.

Rather, they are eager for more challenges to gauge where they stand with a six-game slate against the White Sox and Blue Jays, postseason teams from a year ago who are in the thick of things again in 2021. And after a four-game sweep of the American League champion Rays last weekend, Seattle’s enthusiasm is understandable.

“We wish we could have won one [Wednesday], but … we are in a good place,” outfielder Taylor Trammell said postgame against the Rockies. “I think as a team collectively, and I think everybody out here in the locker room is really excited to go to Chicago and then also go to Buffalo to face two really good teams.”

An off-day on Thursday allows the club to catch its breath, and for us to catch up on some numbers that paint a clearer picture on where the Mariners stand.

39-37 -- The record

The Mariners are above .500 this late into the season for the first time since 2018, the third time in the Jerry Dipoto era (since ’16) and the 16th time in franchise history.

If a crystal ball revealed back in Spring Training that Seattle would be here nearing the three-month mark, it’s likely that everyone from the front office to the clubhouse would’ve taken this standing with approval -- especially considering the 11 players currently on the injured list, including key contributors such as Kyle Lewis and Justin Dunn.

It’s a marathon season that isn’t even half over, but this shouldn’t be sold short: The Mariners have a better record than the Braves, Cardinals, Nationals, Phillies, Twins and Angels, all of whom were preseason playoff favorites.

.708 -- The win percentage in one-run games

What made last weekend’s sweep so thrilling was the clutch matter in which it manifested, including three walk-offs. It also illustrated the Mariners’ poise in tight tilts. Seattle’s 17-7 record in one-run games is the best in baseball, which is telling given that it is one of the league’s youngest teams.

On a semi-related one-run-game note: Among their seven losses in such games was arguably the toughest of the season, a three-run blown save by Rafael Montero with two outs in Cleveland on June 12. Since then, Seattle is 8-2 overall, a sign that, despite their youth, the Mariners have shown maturity to wash a deflating defeat.

“I'll go back to what I said at the beginning of the year: I felt our club was going to continue to get better as the season progressed,” Mariners manager Scott Servais said. “As players gain more experience and confidence, or they settled into roles in the bullpen, whatever is going to be, I thought we would play better as the season goes on.

“I say that, and we're not at the halfway point yet. We're close. But I like the way we're trending. We are building a ton of confidence that should help play out through the remainder of the season. Now, we need to stay healthy.”

5 IP -- The threshold they need from their starters

Servais recently pointed out Seattle’s success when receiving at least five innings from its starting pitchers, and his assertion checks out. The Mariners are 33-17 in such games, including 16-3 in their last 19 such contests.

Aside from run prevention, the most value a starter can offer is innings accumulation, and there’s a glaring correlation to five innings and success. Seattle has hit this threshold 50 times in 76 games, tied for 10th-most in the Majors, and seven of the teams in front of them currently occupy a playoff spot.

Seattle’s starters have had an impressive run in this area lately, especially Yusei Kikuchi, Chris Flexen and Logan Gilbert, who’ve gone at least five in 10 of their combined 11 starts in June, the lone exception being an early injury exit for Kikuchi in Anaheim. And the Mariners should get more length from Marco Gonzales now that he’s stretched back out from an IL stint in May.

• Flexen becoming more than an innings eater

But as Wednesday’s loss showed, they could really benefit from Justus Sheffield finding his way again soon, especially with Dunn on the IL and the club slated to roll out a five-man rotation until the All-Star break.

Minus-48 -- The run differential

We had to include one notable negative, right? The Mariners’ mark is the eighth-lowest in the league, in the neighborhood of teams like the Rockies, Royals and Twins. No playoff team since the Wild Card Game was established in 2012 has had a negative run differential, and only two were even marginally close: the ‘16 Rangers (plus-8) and the ’12 Orioles (plus-7).

Seattle’s bats have taken a much-needed step forward since May 18, when they were no-hit for the second time and hitting .199 for the season. Their collective slash line is up to .215/.288/.375, which, even in a down year for offense across MLB, is still among the lowest. And advanced metrics, such as Seattle’s 88 wRC+ (league average is 100) show that despite its upward trend, the offense overall has been notably low.

Things are trending up, and it can’t be overstated that the Mariners -- at least in most eyes outside the clubhouse -- have impressively punched above their weight. But it’s likely that they’ll continue to need an offensive uptick in order to sustain their standing deep into summer.

“No question,” Servais said. “I do feel very good about where we're at as a ballclub, understanding there's still room for growth. We look at our homestand, and we had a number of different players step up with big hits, quality at-bats, but there's still plenty of room [to improve].”