Breaking down Mariners' staff for stretch run

NEW YORK -- For a rotation that has been so decimated by injuries to key contributors, the Mariners actually find themselves in a decent position heading into the final two months of the regular season.

But is what they have enough for the stretch run, especially given the club is sitting just 4 1/2 games out of a postseason spot? Here’s a breakdown of where things stand with Seattle’s starters:

Marco is back
Manager Scott Servais called Marco Gonzales’ 6 2/3-inning scoreless gem in the Bronx on Friday the left-hander’s best start of 2021.

Gonzales had shown glimpses of his 2019-20 self over the past month, but not quite like Friday, when he threw a season-high 108 pitches and flawlessly executed a game plan tailored to the Yanks’ bevy of sluggers and their hitter-friendly environment. It was his first shutout outing of at least six innings since Sept. 21, 2020, when he dominated Houston over eight frames. In his past five starts, Gonzales has a 2.48 ERA and held hitters to a .694 OPS.

Beyond his left forearm strain in April, Gonzales has had to make some significant in-game adjustments in a way he didn’t in 2020. The cutter, once his best pitch, has been virtually absent all year thanks to a .643 slugging percentage against it. His fastball has been teed up from an average exit velocity of 86.4 mph last year to 92.1 in ‘21. He had to completely shift to a curveball-changeup combo mid-game against stingy Oakland on July 25. He’s at times adjusting on the fly, but Friday was the first example of him seeing his game plan through from first pitch to last.

“I'm not a believer in big changes, just small adjustments,” Gonzales said. “And to be honest, I think I was still learning what the meaning of ‘dad strength’ is, trying to get my feet under me a little bit emotionally and just pitching with passion. I mean, obviously, not just pitching for this team, but pitching for my girls back home as well.”

Anderson plugs a massive hole
Those bullpen games that the Mariners were forced to deploy earlier this season are no more, at least while they have five healthy starters. Depending on the criteria, Seattle went 1-6 in those games but was forced to the tactic due to injuries to Gonzales, and at present, Justin Dunn and Justus Sheffield. That’s why it acquired Tyler Anderson despite his impending free-agent status.

Anderson doesn’t overpower with his stuff, other than his high-whiff changeup, but he’s 31 years old, has pitched on two playoff teams and can work situational sequences. His 3.70 pitches per batter ranks 15th among all big league starters.

“I think just throwing strikes,” Anderson said of his success this year. “Sometimes it's not always pretty, but I think if you continue to throw strikes, eventually guys hit the ball at guys. … It's tough to play defense when there's not a lot of action and it's ball, ball, ball. A lot of times, I just think to work fast and try to fill up the zone and let the guys play defense.”

What’s up with Gilbert, Kikuchi and Flexen?
From June 1 through the All-Star break, Logan Gilbert, Yusei Kikuchi and Chris Flexen were as reliable a threesome as there was in the American League. In their 19 starts in that stretch, that trio put up a combined 2.86 ERA and the Mariners went 14-5. In the four weeks since, those numbers are 7-5 and 5.37.

Seattle won 11 straight Gilbert starts before his loss Wednesday, which was the Majors’ longest such streak since Gerrit Cole’s 13 in 2019. Gilbert has been a tick off since his dominating run, and it’s also getting to the point of the year where Seattle will more closely monitor his workload. Kikuchi’s velocity was down a bit, but he seems to have regained it. The weak-contact-driven Flexen has been hit more in the air than before. The Mariners could certainly benefit from that group getting back to its early-summer form.

“Some of them have been sharper in certain outings than others,” Servais said. “But it's been consistent, they've given us a chance to win and putting us in good spots as we get deeper in the ballgame.”

They will also keep relying on the ‘pen
The relievers are what got them here, and the Mariners won’t back away from them now. But there have been days where they've had to use more arms than they would’ve liked, such as five on Friday despite Gonzales’ gem. That limited some players’ availability on Saturday, and while those things will happen, Seattle would like to avoid that as much as possible.

• Breaking down Mariners' new roles in 'pen

Beyond the taxing demands of those bullpen games, when the Mariners were down a starter in those stretches, it had reverberating negative effects on the relievers among the rest of their games. And that leads us to …

It all comes down to health
It’s a wonder what to think this rotation would look like with James Paxton, but in that same vein, his season-ending Tommy John surgery feels like eons ago. The Mariners have plugged the gaps along the way, and while they finally have five healthy starters again, they’re also teetering on health’s edge; if one more goes down, they could be in trouble.

Sheffield was scratched from making a rehab start Sunday for High-A Everett after not responding well throwing a live BP. Dunn hit a similar skid this week when he was supposed to throw off a mound but didn’t. It’s getting to be crunch time for those two to get back, and Seattle could certainly use them in a playoff push, or at the very least out of the bullpen.

But for now, the Mariners are working with what they have -- and what they have has been strong.