What are Seattle's odds to make postseason?

This story was excerpted from Daniel Kramer’s Mariners Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

OAKLAND -- The Mariners are playing their final series at the Coliseum this week, a venue where they’ve mostly thrived in September over each of the past three seasons.

In 2021, they leapfrogged the A’s in the American League Wild Card race in a four-game sweep that in many ways was the beginning to the end of Oakland’s most recent competitive window. In 2022, they dropped two of three, but won the finale to keep pace towards their eventual playoff berth. And in 2023, they swept a three-gamer to set the stage for their 10-game sprint to the end of the regular season, when they still controlled their own destiny.

They’ve never needed to recapture some of that late-season magic at the 58-year old ballpark than in 2024, where their postseason hopes are fleeting as the calendar flipped to the final month. And this four-game series got off to the sourest of starts after Monday’s walk-off loss on a massive homer surrendered by reliever Austin Voth in the bottom of the ninth inning.

There are just 24 games remaining, and the Mariners are still mathematically in the playoff race -- six games behind Houston for first place in the AL West and 5 1/2 games back of the final AL Wild Card spot. But barring a season-best stretch, they will be on the sidelines come October.

Not only will they need to completely turn around their recent skid -- having lost 13 of their past 16 games on the road, with six more on this trip -- they’ll also need to reel off a run like no other that they’ve achieved this season.

Their longest win streak is four, which has been done six times. Their best stretches were winning nine of 11 from April 15-27 and eight of nine from May 26 through June 4, which catapulted them to a season-best 10-game lead on June 18. Since then, they are 25-38, which is MLB’s worst record outside the White Sox.

Even though the Mariners were eliminated on the penultimate day last year, they got back into the race with a franchise-record 21 wins in August. In 2022, they had a 14-game win streak leading into the All-Star break that helped them overcome an early-summer stretch where they fell 10 games below .500.

Seattle's playoff odds, from FanGraphs, are a season-low 6.1% after Monday’s defeat. Houston's odds are at 98.2%.

For contending teams -- or at least those with expectations -- September is about sprinting to the finish and into the playoffs. For non-contenders, it’s about eyeing the future, potentially with extended looks at younger players or those who might be battling for a job the following year. The Mariners, however, find themselves in limbo.

It’s why it hasn’t made sense for top prospects Cole Young (No. 2) and Harry Ford (No. 4) to get their first opportunities, or for Tyler Locklear (No. 6) to stick around longer after making his debut earlier this season.

Anything short of a playoff berth will be a massive disappointment and could set up another anxious offseason of expectations, where difficult decisions could loom.

Players like George Kirby and Cal Raleigh will be arbitration-eligible for the first time, and they will be in line for significant salary increases. Logan Gilbert and Randy Arozarena will be going through the process for the second and third time, respectively, with sizable pay raises expected.

Then there’s Jorge Polanco’s $12 million club option to consider after his marginal turnaround in the second half, along with figuring out how to set up Mitch Garver and Mitch Haniger for bounceback seasons, as they’re owed a combined $27.5 million in 2025 -- and as such, almost certainly won’t be going anywhere. Julio Rodríguez’s megadeal also kicks into a much higher gear, as he’s slated to jump from $12,185,714 to $20,185,714.

The Mariners faced budgetary constraints last winter in light of their regional sports network, and it’s unclear how much those could impact their 2025 payroll -- which could leave them with far more questions than clarity once the dust settles on this final stage of the season, one that’s rapidly approaching bleak.