Seattle's season defined by tantalizingly close finish

This story was excerpted from Daniel Kramer’s Mariners Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

SEATTLE -- The Mariners’ offseason began earlier than they had hoped and most had envisioned, especially given the trajectory they were on heading into the season’s final month. That precipitous fall in the standings paved way to grander questions of how they construct their roster and gear up for a rebound in 2024.

Before looking ahead, here’s a look back on how the Mariners reached this point.

Defining moment
For a team that fell short of its lofty preseason expectations, it’s hard not to point to Seattle’s official elimination on Saturday night as the decisive point in its season -- especially given the immediate developments after. That night, clubhouse leader Cal Raleigh candidly pointed to management’s roster building as a significant factor in the Mariners’ demise, saying that in order to “commit to winning,” the Mariners must prioritize “getting big-time pitchers, getting big-time hitters” and that “we have to do that to keep up."

Those comments were supported the next day by J.P. Crawford and Logan Gilbert, who themselves have earned a more distinguished voice.

That moment will simmer all offseason given that it’s now the time of year where the front office takes center stage in building next year’s roster.

What we learned
More could’ve -- and should’ve -- been done to bolster the roster, specifically a lineup whose above-average ranks in most advanced metrics were marred by a 25.9% strikeout rate that was second-highest in MLB. President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto admitted so during his end-of-season press conference, calling the overall roster construction by the offense’s assembly “a fail.”

Best development
The pitching-heavy pipeline that has defined the Mariners’ rebuild is thriving. Gilbert and George Kirby represented the first wave in 2021 and 2022, respectively, and Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo didn’t miss a beat when joining the rotation in 2023. Both were respective injury replacements to Robbie Ray and Marco Gonzales, who weren’t just veteran leaders but also innings-eating workhorses.

With Gonzales expected to return by Spring Training and Ray at some point later in 2024, the Mariners’ rotation could be in as promising of a position as any American League team in 2024 and beyond.

Area for improvement
The offense must improve if the Mariners are going to keep pace in the AL West, especially given Houston’s continued reign and Texas emerging from its rebuild with one of the game’s best lineups.

Seattle hit .242/.321/.413 for a .734 OPS that ranked 16th. Its 107 wRC+ (league average is 100) was tied with Toronto and San Diego for seventh. Its 26.2 wins above replacement, per FanGraphs, were sixth most. But its 1,603 strikeouts ranked second worst. A whopping 430 of those came with runners in scoring position, 41 more than the team with the next most.

“How do you overcome that? You have to hit a ton of home runs and slug,” manager Scott Servais said. “And we didn't do that consistently throughout the year. So from an offensive standpoint, that's the one thing we got to address.”

On the rise
The position-player core of the farm system took a huge step forward this season -- headlined by No. 1 prospect Cole Young’s promotion to High-A Everett. Another name to keep tabs on is outfielder Lazaro Montes, who's rightfully drawn comparisons to Yordan Alvarez. The No. 12 prospect helped lead Modesto to a California League championship.

Team MVP
Julio Rodríguez was voted by the Seattle chapter of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America, but a case could be made that Crawford was just as deserving.

Crawford clubbed a career-high 19 homers and delivered in some of the Mariners’ most crucial moments, with an .806 OPS with runners in scoring position and a 1.897 OPS with the bases loaded. Among shortstops, his 4.9 WAR from FanGraphs trailed only Corey Seager (6.1), Francisco Lindor (6.0) and Bobby Witt Jr. (5.7).