Mariners can't find knockout punch, drop 2 in Houston

HOUSTON -- Scott Servais has said throughout this season, and especially in these playoffs, that each game typically comes down to two or three at-bats. Sometimes, the Mariners' manager says, they’re more obvious to pinpoint while others become clearer in retrospect.

Those opportunities surfaced on Thursday at Minute Maid Park, the margin between success and failure slim, and while the Mariners fought and clawed all afternoon, they ultimately came up short in two or three moments that, had things gone the other way, might not have yielded a 4-2 loss to the Astros.

The Mariners are showing that they belong in this American League Division Series, going blow for blow with the 106-win juggernauts. But in the opening acts at Minute Maid Park, they lacked the knockout punch -- and now they’re on the brink of elimination.

The first postseason game in Seattle in 21 years is on Saturday, and it will be one of the most electric environments in these playoffs. But lurking over that jubilation will be the possibility of it being the Mariners’ final game of the season. Making matters sting even more is that a loss would yield a sweep to the team their disdain for is as palpable as it is unspoken.

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"We're right there against those guys,” star center fielder Julio Rodríguez said. “They got away with these two games, but it's not like we're that far off. I feel like we’re right there, and we’ve definitely got a team to compete with them."

Rodriguez was at the center of arguably the game’s most significant play, a bloop single by Jeremy Peña in shallow center field with two outs, which was immediately followed by a two-run blast from Yordan Alvarez, who is blossoming into the second coming of Barry Bonds. That homer, on a 98.3 mph sinker from Luis Castillo way outside the zone, pushed the Astros from trailing by one run to ahead for good.

The Mariners intentionally walked Alvarez in the eighth with a man on first and Andrés Muñoz pitching in relief, but Alex Bregman immediately followed with an RBI single on a 101.4 mph fastball, the fastest pitch that the two-time All-Star has connected on for a base hit in his career. Those moments underscored how agonizingly close the Mariners have been.

“It makes me sick that he’s beaten us two [games] in a row single-handedly,” catcher Cal Raleigh said of Alvarez. “As a catcher, you feel partially responsible. It wasn’t a terrible pitch, but that’s kind of how it goes and how the stadium is here.”

While the Mariners did punch back, defeating arguably the AL’s best offense in one of MLB’s most hitter-friendly environments was always going to require more than two runs. Thursday’s game was the 39th at Minute Maid Park this year in which the visiting team scored that few -- and only twice has it been enough to win. The Mariners have now lost 32 of their past 39 games at this venue.

After Castillo surrendered a solo homer to Kyle Tucker in the second inning, the Mariners responded with two runs in the fourth, scoring via a fielder’s choice on a quirky dribbler from Carlos Santana and an RBI knock by Dylan Moore. It forced Astros starter Framber Valdez to labor through 26 pitches, which led him to be pulled with two outs in the sixth, exiting after a walk to Moore that loaded the bases.

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With Raleigh on deck, the move from the All-Star lefty to righty reliever Héctor Neris also set up the switch-hitting backstop to hit left-handed, his far superior swing, but he grounded out to leave the bases juiced. That moment came just before Alvarez’s big blast. The Mariners also had another rally brewing in the eighth with one on, but Jarred Kelenic hit a 351-foot flyout to the warning track and Raleigh struck out looking.

The Mariners stranded nine baserunners and went 0-for-5 with runners in scoring position outside of Moore’s RBI single. They also had seven hard-hit balls (95 mph or harder) go for outs, which they point to as an illustration of a sound approach despite the results.

“You’ve got to finish it out, no question,” Servais said. “It's difficult to do that on the road in the playoffs. ... I don't know what else you want me to say. We have played very good baseball.”

In Division Series with the current 2-2-1 format, teams winning both Games 1 and 2 in their home ballparks have advanced 30 of 33 times (91%), with 19 finishing off the sweep in Game 3. Those odds aren’t in Seattle’s favor, but they aren’t backing down.

“We’re just as good as them, and [we] are right with them,” Mitch Haniger said. “So we know we can beat them. We're looking forward to Saturday, playing at home.”